Valuing The Mid-Range Free Agent Hitters

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 10, 2008 2:03 PM EST Comment 9 comments

(Ed: stolen from Sky)

For offense, I eye-balled a weighted average of their Batting Wins from Baseball-Reference. For position, I used Tom Tango's position adjustments. And for fielding, I used Sean Smith's fielding projections (which you really should check out if you haven't already).

To convert to replacement-level, I added in 2.25 wins. And then to come up with a dollar value for each player, I multiplied the total WAR (wins-above-replacement) by $4.84MM (a 10% increase over last off-season's $4.4MM per marginal win) and added in the $400K minimum salary.

To be clear, I don't claim that these numbers are accurate to the nearest million dollars or should be accepted by all of you reading this article. The beauty of having this list is that we now have a starting point. If you think Manny Ramirez is going to totally fall off a cliff, simply adjust his offensive number down. If you think Orlando Hudson's glove will rebound to Mark Ellis territory, simply adjust his fielding number up. Every half-win is worth $2.4MM. Go crazy.

Here's the data, sorted from the most- to the least-valuable players:

Pos	Player	Hit	Field	Pos	WAR	$MM
LF	Alou	1.5	-0.9	-0.75	2.1	10.564
1B	Mientkiewicz	0.3	0.7	-1.25	2	10.08
DH	Thomas	1.5		-1.75	2	10.08
RF	Rivera	1	-0.7	-0.75	1.8	9.112
2B	Loretta	-0.5	-0.5	0.25	1.5	7.66
1B	Millar	0.5	-0.2	-1.25	1.3	6.692
2B	Hairston Jr.	-1.3	0.1	0.25	1.3	6.692
RF	Kapler	0	-0.2	-0.75	1.3	6.692
1B	Garciaparra	0.1	0.1	-1.25	1.2	6.208
2B	Easley	-0.4	-1.2	0.25	0.9	4.756
2B	F. Lopez	-1	-0.7	0.25	0.8	4.272
1B	Aurilia	-0.5	0.2	-1.25	0.7	3.788
1B	Casey	-0.3	0	-1.25	0.7	3.788
1B	Clark	-0.2	-0.1	-1.25	0.7	3.788
LF	Hinske	0.3	-1.1	-0.75	0.7	3.788

Observations:

- Moises Alou and Frank Thomas could make decent DH types for a reasonable rate (neither will sign for as much as projected.)

- Doug Mientkiewicz won't appease too many with his hitting, but it's better than you would expect, and his glove is pretty good.

- Gabe Kapler would make a nice platoon partner.

- Eric Hinske would be better off simply DHing, but his WAR would only rise by 0.1, go figure.

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since you guys have a more intimate knowledge

i was wondering what your thoughts were on rocco baldelli. he seems a rather tricky guy to value with all the unknowns.

by larry on Nov 10, 2008 2:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

From my knowledge of his situation.

He cannot play the field daily, which keeps him in a DH role, or in a situation where he plays a limited outfield. He kills left-handed pitching though.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 10, 2008 2:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i read in what i guess is his hometown paper

that $1-2M might do it – don’t know if that’s just pure speculation (seems low) or if baldelli hinted at that in the interview. even if you’re only getting, say, 200 PAs out of him, that seems like highway robbery even with all the uncertainty. i suppose it’s true that there are only a few teams out there where he could fit in as a fourth outfielder, especially considering it seems he can’t play more than every third game or so and may require a defensive replacement in late innings, to boot, but one can see why a team like the red sox would be interested (smart organization, good medical staff, lefty DH, some interchangeable parts in the OF, so on). i guess i see considerable value to be had in baldelli in the right organization (which would have to be risk-seeking, of course) and wondered if that was accurate.

by larry on Nov 10, 2008 2:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

R. J. -- nice stuff

I actually have a whole spreadsheet that does the weighted average with position adjustments. I just enter in the offensive/defensive runs for the last four years.

any reason you just went with 2.25 for replacement level rather thatn 2 for NL players and 2.5 for AL players?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 10, 2008 2:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lazy?

Actually it was just to keep with Sky’s initial post.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 10, 2008 2:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"I actually have a whole spreadsheet that does the weighted average with position adjustments. I just enter in the offensive/defensive runs for the last four years."

Oh?

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 10, 2008 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

It’s not as cool as it seems… I had a crappy one I m ade, and this one still isn’t entirely consistent in converting runs/wins in the pos. adjust section (nor does it prorate)… I should regress to league average, too, but it’s less fun that way, I guess it would be easy enough to add. But I think it does OK for me. If I would have listened years ago in intro to computer science or if Microsoft’s Help files didn’t suck ass I would add drop-downs for pos. adjustments, league adjustments ( I use 2.25 for guys who switch leagues) and stuff. I also have a 2009 salary chart at the bottom. I just sit here pretending I’m working while I actually am pretending to be Tom Tango.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 10, 2008 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs