2008 2B Defense By PMR
by Dan Turkenkopf
on Nov 10, 2008 12:00 PM EST
in Stat-Colored Glasses
16 comments
Team: PMR / RAA | 1B: PMR / RAA | 2B: PMR / RAA | 3B: PMR / RAA | SS: PMR / RRAA | LF: PMR / RAA | CF: PMR / RAA | RF: PMR / RAA
Each season, David Pinto releases his Probablistic Measure of Range (PMR) ratings based on play-by-play data from Baseball Info Solutions. PMR measures how many plays above or below expected each team or player made based on batted ball characteristics like velocity and location. Here at Beyond the Box Score, we're translating the play numbers into runs (following a method developed by LA Black Hawk of Waterloo). More information can be found in this post.
Today, we look at second basemen - first on the team level and then for individuals.
| Team | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | Outs Delta | Runs Delta | Runs / 4000 | RAA / 4000 |
| Marlins | 4338 | 527 | 500.98 | 26.02 | 19.6198606 | 18.09 | 17.97 |
| Phillies | 4396 | 528 | 504.35 | 23.65 | 17.8328095 | 16.23 | 16.11 |
| Reds | 4299 | 498 | 478.19 | 19.81 | 14.9373343 | 13.9 | 13.78 |
| Diamondbacks | 4224 | 561 | 539.98 | 21.02 | 15.8497106 | 15.01 | 14.89 |
| Cubs | 4156 | 500 | 487.52 | 12.48 | 9.4102944 | 9.06 | 8.94 |
| Rockies | 4535 | 564 | 552.06 | 11.94 | 9.0031182 | 7.94 | 7.82 |
| Tigers | 4536 | 505 | 495.02 | 9.98 | 7.5252194 | 6.64 | 6.52 |
| Angels | 4374 | 545 | 535.72 | 9.28 | 6.9973984 | 6.4 | 6.28 |
| Indians | 4513 | 554 | 545.22 | 8.78 | 6.6203834 | 5.87 | 5.75 |
| Twins | 4607 | 513 | 505.3 | 7.7 | 5.806031 | 5.04 | 4.92 |
| Athletics | 4285 | 518 | 510.99 | 7.01 | 5.2857503 | 4.93 | 4.81 |
| Blue Jays | 4215 | 532 | 525.31 | 6.69 | 5.0444607 | 4.79 | 4.67 |
| Brewers | 4354 | 508 | 503.13 | 4.87 | 3.6721261 | 3.37 | 3.25 |
| White Sox | 4409 | 535 | 533.38 | 1.62 | 1.2215286 | 1.11 | 0.99 |
| Orioles | 4540 | 498 | 498.38 | -0.38 | -0.2865314 | -0.25 | -0.37 |
| Cardinals | 4597 | 517 | 517.91 | -0.91 | -0.6861673 | -0.6 | -0.72 |
| Yankees | 4349 | 556 | 557.46 | -1.46 | -1.1008838 | -1.01 | -1.13 |
| Red Sox | 4232 | 505 | 508.07 | -3.07 | -2.3148721 | -2.19 | -2.31 |
| Astros | 4292 | 464 | 467.09 | -3.09 | -2.3299527 | -2.17 | -2.29 |
| Mariners | 4512 | 602 | 608.69 | -6.69 | -5.0444607 | -4.47 | -4.59 |
| Rangers | 4667 | 539 | 546.88 | -7.88 | -5.9417564 | -5.09 | -5.21 |
| Royals | 4413 | 547 | 555.11 | -8.11 | -6.1151833 | -5.54 | -5.66 |
| Nationals | 4417 | 464 | 471.01 | -7.01 | -5.2857503 | -4.79 | -4.91 |
| Braves | 4383 | 526 | 534.13 | -8.13 | -6.1302639 | -5.59 | -5.71 |
| Pirates | 4683 | 466 | 478.32 | -12.32 | -9.2896496 | -7.93 | -8.05 |
| Mets | 4335 | 476 | 492.58 | -16.58 | -12.501817 | -11.54 | -11.66 |
| Giants | 4232 | 417 | 432.81 | -15.81 | -11.921214 | -11.27 | -11.39 |
| Rays | 4264 | 472 | 490.56 | -18.56 | -13.994797 | -13.13 | -13.25 |
| Padres | 4419 | 475 | 499.74 | -24.74 | -18.654702 | -16.89 | -17.01 |
| Dodgers | 4265 | 484 | 514.65 | -30.65 | -23.11102 | -21.68 | -21.8 |
| Team | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | Outs Delta | Runs Delta | Runs / 4000 |
RAA / 4000 |
| Adam Kennedy | 2036 | 247 | 226.55 | 20.45 | 15.4199135 | 30.29 | 30.17 |
| Mike Fontenot | 1448 | 175 | 160.82 | 14.18 | 10.6921454 | 29.54 | 29.42 |
| Emilio Bonifacio | 1008 | 100 | 93.17 | 6.83 | 5.1500249 | 20.44 | 20.32 |
| Chase Utley | 4231 | 513 | 485.09 | 27.91 | 21.0449773 | 19.9 | 19.78 |
| Marco Scutaro | 1077 | 144 | 136.95 | 7.05 | 5.3159115 | 19.74 | 19.62 |
| Placido Polanco | 3806 | 424 | 405.94 | 18.06 | 13.6177818 | 14.31 | 14.19 |
| Dan Uggla | 3841 | 465 | 445.31 | 19.69 | 14.8468507 | 15.46 | 15.34 |
| Howie Kendrick | 2341 | 308 | 295.94 | 12.06 | 9.0936018 | 15.54 | 15.42 |
| Joe Inglett | 1554 | 205 | 197.44 | 7.56 | 5.7004668 | 14.67 | 14.55 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 2446 | 316 | 304.98 | 11.02 | 8.3094106 | 13.59 | 13.47 |
| Juan Uribe | 1112 | 138 | 133.57 | 4.43 | 3.3403529 | 12.02 | 11.9 |
| Brandon Phillips | 3704 | 429 | 416.27 | 12.73 | 9.5988019 | 10.37 | 10.25 |
| Clint Barmes | 1519 | 183 | 177.61 | 5.39 | 4.0642217 | 10.7 | 10.58 |
| Mark Ellis | 3006 | 373 | 365.23 | 7.77 | 5.8588131 | 7.8 | 7.68 |
| Alexi Casilla | 2611 | 288 | 282.01 | 5.99 | 4.5166397 | 6.92 | 6.8 |
| Orlando Hudson | 2668 | 346 | 339.7 | 6.3 | 4.750389 | 7.12 | 7 |
| Kaz Matsui | 2485 | 267 | 265.25 | 1.75 | 1.3195525 | 2.12 | 2 |
| Rickie Weeks | 3150 | 355 | 353.07 | 1.93 | 1.4552779 | 1.85 | 1.73 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 4003 | 479 | 477.12 | 1.88 | 1.4175764 | 1.42 | 1.3 |
| Brian Roberts | 4195 | 471 | 469.83 | 1.17 | 0.8822151 | 0.84 | 0.72 |
| Robinson Cano | 4152 | 531 | 530.64 | 0.36 | 0.2714508 | 0.26 | 0.14 |
| Sean Rodriguez | 1229 | 149 | 148.91 | 0.09 | 0.0678627 | 0.22 | 0.1 |
| Mark Loretta | 1110 | 129 | 128.96 | 0.04 | 0.0301612 | 0.11 | -0.01 |
| Jose Lopez | 3861 | 531 | 533.54 | -2.54 | -1.9152362 | -1.98 | -2.1 |
| Alexei Ramirez | 3081 | 371 | 373.04 | -2.04 | -1.5382212 | -2 | -2.12 |
| Luis Castillo | 2054 | 219 | 220.31 | -1.31 | -0.9877793 | -1.92 | -2.04 |
| Mark Grudzielanek | 2175 | 280 | 282.08 | -2.08 | -1.5683824 | -2.88 | -3 |
| Tadahito Iguchi | 1962 | 217 | 218.94 | -1.94 | -1.4628182 | -2.98 | -3.1 |
| Jamey Carroll | 1800 | 206 | 207.94 | -1.94 | -1.4628182 | -3.25 | -3.37 |
| Ian Kinsler | 3462 | 413 | 417.34 | -4.34 | -3.2724902 | -3.78 | -3.9 |
| Kelly Johnson | 3631 | 441 | 448.84 | -7.84 | -5.9115952 | -6.51 | -6.63 |
| Mark DeRosa | 1930 | 232 | 236.45 | -4.45 | -3.3554335 | -6.95 | -7.07 |
| Freddy Sanchez | 3688 | 368 | 378.01 | -10.01 | -7.5478403 | -8.19 | -8.31 |
| Eugenio Velez | 1355 | 128 | 133.2 | -5.2 | -3.920956 | -11.57 | -11.69 |
| Jeff Baker | 1174 | 139 | 144.85 | -5.85 | -4.4110755 | -15.03 | -15.15 |
| Felipe Lopez | 2435 | 266 | 279.15 | -13.15 | -9.9154945 | -16.29 | -16.41 |
| Aaron Hill | 1375 | 164 | 172.51 | -8.51 | -6.4167953 | -18.67 | -18.79 |
| Akinori Iwamura | 3916 | 435 | 457.88 | -22.88 | -17.252206 | -17.62 | -17.74 |
| Aaron Miles | 1551 | 171 | 182.78 | -11.78 | -8.8824734 | -22.91 | -23.03 |
| Alberto Callapso | 1128 | 128 | 137.62 | -9.62 | -7.2537686 | -25.72 | -25.84 |
| Ray Durham | 2160 | 212 | 228.31 | -16.31 | -12.298229 | -22.77 | -22.89 |
| Edgar Gonzalez | 1701 | 191 | 205.9 | -14.9 | -11.235047 | -26.42 | -26.54 |
| Brendan Harris | 1016 | 101 | 109.08 | -8.08 | -6.0925624 | -23.99 | -24.11 |
| Damion Easley | 1607 | 170 | 186.57 | -16.57 | -12.494277 | -31.1 | -31.22 |
| Jeff Kent | 2630 | 290 | 318.37 | -28.37 | -21.391831 | -32.54 | -32.66 |
The Mets can probably blame missing the playoffs on their middle infield defense. Between Reyes and the various 2bmen trotted out there this season, they dropped close to 3 wins - exactly the number of games they finished behind the Phillies. By the way, I know Chase Utley is finally getting some kudos after the World Championship, but boy is he good.
Dan Uggla rates surprisingly highly by PMR compared to reputation, which caused David Pinto and Mike Emeigh to look into it further. The short explanation is, with PMR (and all fielding systems), positioning is really important. We don't really have a system yet that separates positioning from the traditional definition of range (how well a players moves for a ball).
Brandon Phillips was a reasonable choice for a Gold Glove according to PMR, but Dustin Pedroia was barely above average in the AL. I think he benefited from the good offensive season that so often seems to affect Gold Glove voting.
Most of the NL West could really stand to improve their 2B fielding, with the Giants, Pads and Dodgers bringing up the rear in the ratings. The Diamondbacks stand to take a hit though with Orlando Hudson as a free agent.
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Iwamura was -17 runs at second?
That is really surprising to me. I mean, I didn’t think he was a Gold Glover (lol) but was he really 15 runs worse than Alexei Ramirez?
by staplemaniac on
Nov 10, 2008 1:10 PM EST
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unpossible.
alexei ramirez is a bad baseball player. only pay attention to metrics that affirm what you already believe and experts have told you.
it’s one defensive measure. that’s about what it’s worth.
by larry on
Nov 10, 2008 1:27 PM EST
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Hey, don't accuse me of being closed-minded man.
I didn’t say it wasn’t true, just that it was surprising.
by staplemaniac on
Nov 10, 2008 2:39 PM EST
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i just found it amusing that alexei ramirez, of all those players, was your point of reference for "he's that many worse than my guy?!?!"
by larry on
Nov 10, 2008 2:41 PM EST
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Hey, I only used one '?'
Ramirez was pretty close to 0 which is why I chose him. I could have said Uggla but that’s more because I’m shocked that he’s that high rather than that Aki’s that low.
by staplemaniac on
Nov 10, 2008 3:58 PM EST
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probably my al central bias.
but i would have written “jesus, you mean iwamura is really 15 runs worse than a guy a decade older than him?” i find that one much harder to believe.
by larry on
Nov 10, 2008 4:02 PM EST
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So Alexei really is 36 eh?
/obvious joke
by R.J. Anderson on
Nov 10, 2008 4:04 PM EST
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Who knows how they calculate years on globulon IX
/jokes
I could be wrong though
by staplemaniac on
Nov 10, 2008 4:06 PM EST
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Aaron Hill
-18. My overall impression was that he was a pretty good glove at 2B. Was that last year and has his range regressed?
by Paul5418 on
Nov 10, 2008 1:42 PM EST
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Hill was +18 plays in 4230 innings last year
remember, he got concussed early this season, so the sample from which the RAA/4000 is extrapolated is a small sample.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Nov 10, 2008 2:29 PM EST
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That's +18 plays PMR in 2007
Dewan’s had him at +22 plays in 2007, +22 in 2006
UZR had him +14 runs in 2007, +20 in 2006,
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Nov 10, 2008 2:31 PM EST
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Adam Kennedy +14 runs.
If you read viva el birdos, he’s pretty much the scapegoat for the 2008 season.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on
Nov 10, 2008 5:01 PM EST
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Not as gritty has Aaron Miles
Probably his fault for not drivin LaRussa home that one night
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Nov 10, 2008 10:02 PM EST
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Dan Uggla better than Mark Ellis?
Color me shocked.
""Bobby Crosby’s Release" - Sounds like a good title to Mr. Crosby’s first work in his next career now that we know he can’t play baseball." - Joey C.
by Blicks on
Nov 15, 2008 8:39 PM EST
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But then I'm probably not understanding something correctly.
""Bobby Crosby’s Release" - Sounds like a good title to Mr. Crosby’s first work in his next career now that we know he can’t play baseball." - Joey C.
by Blicks on
Nov 15, 2008 8:39 PM EST
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