Quiz: Who Was More Productive In 2008?

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 7, 2008 3:11 PM EDT Comment 25 comments

Below are listed 31 pairs of players. Your job is simply to decide if Player A was more valuable by at least ten runs, Player B was more valuable by at least ten runs, or if the two players were equal in production (within five runs). On your answer sheet, simply put an A, B, or E.

For the record, I'm using Justin's TotalValue ratings, which incorporate park-adjusted linear weights, league-adjusted replacement level, positional adjustments, and combined STATS and BIS zone ratings converted to runs.

Pair #	Player A	Player B
1	Carlos Lee	Jason Kendall
2	Scott Rolen	Miguel Cabrera
3	Derek Jeter	Denard Span
4	David Ortiz	Nelson Cruz
5	JD Drew	Mark Ellis
6	Adrian Beltre	Josh Hamilton
7	Juan Pierre	Todd Helton
8	Nate McLouth	Cody Ross
9	BJ Upton	Torii Hunter
10	Brian Giles	Matt Holliday
11	Carlos Gomez	Orlando Cabrera
12	Dioner Navarro	Jose Lopez
13	Derrek Lee	Rick Ankiel
14	Justin Upton	Endy Chavez
15	Jacoby Ellsbury	Adam Jones
16	Ichiro Suzuki	Carlos Quentin
17	Adam Dunn	Mike Cameron
18	JJ Hardy	Russell Martin
19	Jose Vidro	Wladimir Balentien
20	Raul Ibanez	Franklin Gutierrez
21	Christian Guzman	Ty Wigginton
22	Pat Burrell	Stephen Drew
23	Shane Victorino	Aramis Ramirez
24	Aaron Rowand	Willy Taveras
25	Khalil Greene	Garret Atkins
26	Andre Ethier	Manny Ramirez
27	Chone Figgins	Jack Cust
28	Ryan Braun	Geovany Soto
29	Gary Sheffield	Brendan Harris
30	Akinori Iwamura	Bobby Abreu
31	Carlos Beltran	David Wright

Answers are in the comments. Feel free to leave your score or the player pair that you're most surprised about it.

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The Answers...

…are not yet posted. Stop cheating.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 7, 2008 3:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Answers, For Realz

The answer to every single player pair is “even”. Some might claim that’s a little cheesy or lame, but hey, it sure does make scoring easy, right?

I had different intentions for each pair. Some highlight how underrated player is, some highlight how overrated a player is. Some are fun in other ways, such as Wladimir Balentien killing the Mariners season just as much as Jose Vidro did, but with much less fanfare.

Two notes: I only counted Manny Ramirez’s contributions with the Dodgers as part of number 26. He’s clearly ahead by including his time with the Red Sox. Similarly, I only included (unintentionally) Adam Dunn’s time with the Reds — he’s ahead of Mike Cameron (#13) by about five runs by counting his production for the Diamondbacks.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 7, 2008 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would like to point out. . .

. . . that a big chunk of me expected this.

by philkid3 on Oct 8, 2008 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lazy?

B.J. “Never got a CS I didn’t like” Upton v. Torii “Not Spelling” Hunter? E, no matter what the stats say.

by klhoughton on Oct 7, 2008 3:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

B.J. owns.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 7, 2008 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i like 26.

nice post.

by someguy132 on Oct 7, 2008 4:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

wow

this makes me want Beltre as the Giants’ 3b even more. At first, I didn’t think this incorporated defense, but that must be the reason here (the zone rating referred to above?)

by BigO on Oct 7, 2008 4:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I got 14

but mainly because I got lazy at the end and put “E” for the last 5. I guess I still failed anyway. It was a dirty trick for sure.

by BigO on Oct 8, 2008 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes, defense counts

in two forms — first a position adjustment (the average-fielding first basemen isn’t as valuable as the average-fielding shortstop, all else being equal) and then each player is compared to the average player at their own position, using zone ratings.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 8, 2008 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can't believe I went through and guessed.

I hate to get paper and pen too. I got a 5.

by JohnPeterson on Oct 7, 2008 5:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

me too

i’ve been had

by EWS1532 on Oct 7, 2008 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Adam Dunn being equal to Mike Cameron is pretty insane.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 7, 2008 6:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Figgins = Cust is about as awesome as it gets

"Lefty relievers are like the different Mountain Dew flavors. New ones keep appearing, and people are willing to buy, but in the end most of them suck." - Gallagher's Watermelons

by scatterbrian on Oct 7, 2008 6:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

man i dont know what to think

is that player really that good?
or
is that player really that bad?

by idunno723 on Oct 7, 2008 11:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

or somewhere in the middle?

if you click through to Justin’s stats you can see where exactly each player falls.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 8, 2008 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sorry

for my lack of ability to read a whole article

by idunno723 on Oct 10, 2008 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Carlos Lee vs. Jason Kendall

Someone in another forum called bullshit on the Lee/Kendall comparison. Even though they were cowardly and didn’t respond here, I will explain how Lee’s near .300 point advantage in OPS evaporates when you consider (gasp) defense.

Lee clearly is superior offensively. By Baseball-Reference Batting Wins, he leads +2.5 to 2.0, a 4.5 win gap. By Justin’s stats, he’s ahead 40 runs above replacement to 0, a 4 win gap. But then consider position. Lee is a left fielder and Kendall is a catcher. Just imagine how much more valuable Lee’s bat would be if he could catch - we’re talking Mike Piazza talent, and Mike Piazza’s a sure Hall of Famer. Justin’s position adjustment for Lee is -5 runs and it’s +12 for Kendall (players who can handle catching really can’t hit). That’s 17 runs of the 40-run offensive gap right there. Then consider that Lee is really bad in left field, about -9 runs. And Jason Kendall is really really good at the things we can measure about catchers (throwing out runners, preventing passed balls and wild pitches, etc.) to the tune of +14 runs this year. That’s a 23 run gap. 17 + 23 = 40, which was Lee’s offensive edge.

Let me make one final point. Nobody’s claiming that big-bat left fielders are equivalent in value to no-hit catchers. But when the left fielder also fields like Manny Ramirez and the catcher pulls off a season reminiscent of IRod circa the late 1990’s behind the plate, then yes, they are equally valuable.

By the way, the gap between Kendall and Lee offensively is smaller than the gap between Lee and Pujols. Pujols is awesome.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 8, 2008 10:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

grrr, that strike-through text shouldn't be formatted like that

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 8, 2008 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

another point from the forum post

Hitting is more important than defense. No amount of defense can make up for .300 difference in OPS.

Well, I just showed the second part isn’t true. But I hate the first claim. Yes, the range of hitting talent is much wider than the range of fielding talent. But when you consider position AND fielding (like the difference between Ozzie Smith and Ryan Howard) you can get pretty close. Sure, offense might be more important, but that doesn’t mean defense is a footnote. If anything, hitting is maybe worth three points and fielding is worth one. But that one point has power — it can change a 3 hitter into a 2 and a 1 hitter into a 2. It matters. Obviously a great hitter will always have value no matter how bad a defender he is, but fielding is the swing-vote, and it really important.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 8, 2008 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Isn't the old saying: a run saved is equal to a run earned?

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 8, 2008 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

bah

I hate trick questions

by JoshNY on Oct 8, 2008 2:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I did it

So I am posting it! Boo

1. Lee
2. Cabrera
3. Jeet
4. Ortiz
5. Drew
6. Beltre
7. Helton
8. Ross
9. Upton
10. Holliday
11. Gomez
12. Navarro
13. Lee
14. Endy
15. Ellsbury
16. Quentin
17. Dunn
18. Martin
19. Balentien
20. Gutierrez
21. Wiggy
22. Drew
23. Ramirez
24. Rowand
25. Atkins
26. Ramirez
27. Cust
28. Braun
29. Harris
30. Aki
31. Beltran