Quiz: Who Was More Productive In 2008?
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 7, 2008 3:11 PM EDT
25 comments
Below are listed 31 pairs of players. Your job is simply to decide if Player A was more valuable by at least ten runs, Player B was more valuable by at least ten runs, or if the two players were equal in production (within five runs). On your answer sheet, simply put an A, B, or E.
For the record, I'm using Justin's TotalValue ratings, which incorporate park-adjusted linear weights, league-adjusted replacement level, positional adjustments, and combined STATS and BIS zone ratings converted to runs.
| Pair # | Player A | Player B |
| 1 | Carlos Lee | Jason Kendall |
| 2 | Scott Rolen | Miguel Cabrera |
| 3 | Derek Jeter | Denard Span |
| 4 | David Ortiz | Nelson Cruz |
| 5 | JD Drew | Mark Ellis |
| 6 | Adrian Beltre | Josh Hamilton |
| 7 | Juan Pierre | Todd Helton |
| 8 | Nate McLouth | Cody Ross |
| 9 | BJ Upton | Torii Hunter |
| 10 | Brian Giles | Matt Holliday |
| 11 | Carlos Gomez | Orlando Cabrera |
| 12 | Dioner Navarro | Jose Lopez |
| 13 | Derrek Lee | Rick Ankiel |
| 14 | Justin Upton | Endy Chavez |
| 15 | Jacoby Ellsbury | Adam Jones |
| 16 | Ichiro Suzuki | Carlos Quentin |
| 17 | Adam Dunn | Mike Cameron |
| 18 | JJ Hardy | Russell Martin |
| 19 | Jose Vidro | Wladimir Balentien |
| 20 | Raul Ibanez | Franklin Gutierrez |
| 21 | Christian Guzman | Ty Wigginton |
| 22 | Pat Burrell | Stephen Drew |
| 23 | Shane Victorino | Aramis Ramirez |
| 24 | Aaron Rowand | Willy Taveras |
| 25 | Khalil Greene | Garret Atkins |
| 26 | Andre Ethier | Manny Ramirez |
| 27 | Chone Figgins | Jack Cust |
| 28 | Ryan Braun | Geovany Soto |
| 29 | Gary Sheffield | Brendan Harris |
| 30 | Akinori Iwamura | Bobby Abreu |
| 31 | Carlos Beltran | David Wright |
Answers are in the comments. Feel free to leave your score or the player pair that you're most surprised about it.
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The Answers...
…are not yet posted. Stop cheating.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 7, 2008 3:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Answers, For Realz
The answer to every single player pair is “even”. Some might claim that’s a little cheesy or lame, but hey, it sure does make scoring easy, right?
I had different intentions for each pair. Some highlight how underrated player is, some highlight how overrated a player is. Some are fun in other ways, such as Wladimir Balentien killing the Mariners season just as much as Jose Vidro did, but with much less fanfare.
Two notes: I only counted Manny Ramirez’s contributions with the Dodgers as part of number 26. He’s clearly ahead by including his time with the Red Sox. Similarly, I only included (unintentionally) Adam Dunn’s time with the Reds — he’s ahead of Mike Cameron (#13) by about five runs by counting his production for the Diamondbacks.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 7, 2008 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would like to point out. . .
. . . that a big chunk of me expected this.
by philkid3 on Oct 8, 2008 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lazy?
B.J. “Never got a CS I didn’t like” Upton v. Torii “Not Spelling” Hunter? E, no matter what the stats say.
by klhoughton on Oct 7, 2008 3:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
wow
this makes me want Beltre as the Giants’ 3b even more. At first, I didn’t think this incorporated defense, but that must be the reason here (the zone rating referred to above?)
by BigO on Oct 7, 2008 4:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yes, defense counts
in two forms — first a position adjustment (the average-fielding first basemen isn’t as valuable as the average-fielding shortstop, all else being equal) and then each player is compared to the average player at their own position, using zone ratings.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 8, 2008 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't believe I went through and guessed.
I hate to get paper and pen too. I got a 5.
by JohnPeterson on Oct 7, 2008 5:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Figgins = Cust is about as awesome as it gets
"Lefty relievers are like the different Mountain Dew flavors. New ones keep appearing, and people are willing to buy, but in the end most of them suck." - Gallagher's Watermelons
by scatterbrian on Oct 7, 2008 6:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
man i dont know what to think
is that player really that good?
or
is that player really that bad?
by idunno723 on Oct 7, 2008 11:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
or somewhere in the middle?
if you click through to Justin’s stats you can see where exactly each player falls.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 8, 2008 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Carlos Lee vs. Jason Kendall
Someone in another forum called bullshit on the Lee/Kendall comparison. Even though they were cowardly and didn’t respond here, I will explain how Lee’s near .300 point advantage in OPS evaporates when you consider (gasp) defense.
Lee clearly is superior offensively. By Baseball-Reference Batting Wins, he leads +2.5 to 2.0, a 4.5 win gap. By Justin’s stats, he’s ahead 40 runs above replacement to 0, a 4 win gap. But then consider position. Lee is a left fielder and Kendall is a catcher. Just imagine how much more valuable Lee’s bat would be if he could catch - we’re talking Mike Piazza talent, and Mike Piazza’s a sure Hall of Famer. Justin’s position adjustment for Lee is -5 runs and it’s +12 for Kendall (players who can handle catching really can’t hit). That’s 17 runs of the 40-run offensive gap right there. Then consider that Lee is really bad in left field, about -9 runs. And Jason Kendall is really really good at the things we can measure about catchers (throwing out runners, preventing passed balls and wild pitches, etc.) to the tune of +14 runs this year. That’s a 23 run gap. 17 + 23 = 40, which was Lee’s offensive edge.
Let me make one final point. Nobody’s claiming that big-bat left fielders are equivalent in value to no-hit catchers. But when the left fielder also fields like Manny Ramirez and the catcher pulls off a season reminiscent of IRod circa the late 1990’s behind the plate, then yes, they are equally valuable.
By the way, the gap between Kendall and Lee offensively is smaller than the gap between Lee and Pujols. Pujols is awesome.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 8, 2008 10:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
grrr, that strike-through text shouldn't be formatted like that
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 8, 2008 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
another point from the forum post
Hitting is more important than defense. No amount of defense can make up for .300 difference in OPS.
Well, I just showed the second part isn’t true. But I hate the first claim. Yes, the range of hitting talent is much wider than the range of fielding talent. But when you consider position AND fielding (like the difference between Ozzie Smith and Ryan Howard) you can get pretty close. Sure, offense might be more important, but that doesn’t mean defense is a footnote. If anything, hitting is maybe worth three points and fielding is worth one. But that one point has power — it can change a 3 hitter into a 2 and a 1 hitter into a 2. It matters. Obviously a great hitter will always have value no matter how bad a defender he is, but fielding is the swing-vote, and it really important.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 8, 2008 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I did it
So I am posting it! Boo
1. Lee
2. Cabrera
3. Jeet
4. Ortiz
5. Drew
6. Beltre
7. Helton
8. Ross
9. Upton
10. Holliday
11. Gomez
12. Navarro
13. Lee
14. Endy
15. Ellsbury
16. Quentin
17. Dunn
18. Martin
19. Balentien
20. Gutierrez
21. Wiggy
22. Drew
23. Ramirez
24. Rowand
25. Atkins
26. Ramirez
27. Cust
28. Braun
29. Harris
30. Aki
31. Beltran
Who's world is it? It's yours.
by BlackOps on Oct 8, 2008 3:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I respect this.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 8, 2008 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thought looking at numbers would be cheating, so I went off the top of my head.
1. A
2. B
3. A
4. A
5. E
6. B
7. E
8. B
9. E
10. E
11. E
12. A
13. A
14. B
15. B
16. B
17. B
18. A
19. A
20. B
21. A
22. E
23. E
24. B
25. B
26. E
27. B
28. E
29. B
30. A
31. A
by philkid3 on Oct 8, 2008 5:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Span=Jeter makes me love life.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on Oct 8, 2008 8:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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