SBN Awards: Manager of the Year Preface

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 6, 2008 1:45 PM EDT Comment 13 comments

This week's featured SBN Award is the Manager of the Year. Frankly I don't have a ton to say about it. Sure, we can theorize that Joe Maddon is a calming influence on his troops, however outside of lineup and bullpen usage we really don't know how much value he possesses. Ned Yost and Dave Sveum may differ in their teaching philosophies but it's impossible to truly judge them.

In all honesty the MOY is almost always given to the "surprise" team's manager, or the manager of the best team. That's not to say the award is entirely useless, but does anyone truly believe that Dusty Baker (three-time winner) is a better manager than Davey Johnson? There's only so much influence a manager can have over his team's performances, and I can't help but go back to Joe Maddon for numerous examples. To believe Maddon suddenly learn this off-season how to make his team win 31 more games seems silly, especially when you consider his personnel upgrades, but some people may say he kept the team focused, not me, but some.

My question is: how do you judge managers?

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Who was stupid less often than anyone else?

That’s really what it comes down to. I’m of the opinion that there are two or three managers who influence their team in a positive way, two or three managers who influence their team in a negative way, and a whole bunch of managers that don’t really have all that much of an effect.

The issue is that the positive effect is pretty much impossible to measure. What’s the WPA of a good manager? Who the hell knows? Is it even possible to know? Unless you watch a team 20-30+ times in a given year, it’s hard to even get a feel for a manager’s tendencies.

I know that doesn’t really come close to answering the question, but that’s the thing; I don’t even know if you can answer the question.

J.K.L.

by acblue on Oct 6, 2008 2:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

it's like that not-so-old adage:

Good managers get too much credit, and bad managers get too much of the blame.

"Lefty relievers are like the different Mountain Dew flavors. New ones keep appearing, and people are willing to buy, but in the end most of them suck." - Gallagher's Watermelons

by scatterbrian on Oct 6, 2008 8:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Most wins over PECOTA?

I dunno. Seems as good as anything.

by philkid3 on Oct 7, 2008 3:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No, I don't think it's actually good.

by philkid3 on Oct 7, 2008 3:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybe not wins over PECOTA

but you could use wins over third order wins as a starting point…..that would mean Scioscia (16) and Cooper (10.2)…..Scioscia’s a solid choice, and Cooper’s OK I guess….but with the Phillies having the third-highest differential (5.2), I’d go with Manual instead.

"Lefty relievers are like the different Mountain Dew flavors. New ones keep appearing, and people are willing to buy, but in the end most of them suck." - Gallagher's Watermelons

by scatterbrian on Oct 8, 2008 1:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

how can you tell that stuff isn't just dumb luck?

or something like baserunning or outfield throwing arm which aren’t traditionally measured? (those wouldn’t matter in Pythag, though.)

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 8, 2008 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you can't

we’re not sure what it is about teams who exceed or fall short of their Pythag record….but I tend to think that, after luck, it has something to do with in-game management: use of the bench, deployment of the bullpen, calling for steals/hit and run, etc.

"Lefty relievers are like the different Mountain Dew flavors. New ones keep appearing, and people are willing to buy, but in the end most of them suck." - Gallagher's Watermelons

by scatterbrian on Oct 8, 2008 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Where do these awards go down, btw?

by philkid3 on Oct 7, 2008 4:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Friday, here.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 7, 2008 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think some managers can really make a difference with individual players.

Getting their heads in the right place, etc. But there’s no way we can really know when that happens.

We can, however, judge then based on personnel moves, in-game strategy, etc. Most managers are hurting their teams in these regards, and the better ones probably are worth a few games over the bad ones. Personally, I’d vote for Manny Acta as Manager of the Year, since he’s outwardly admitted to holding to intelligent, sabermetric principles. Will Acta get any support from the BBWAA? No way.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 7, 2008 12:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs