Best Third Basemen Of 2008
Other positions: 1B | 2B | SS | DH | LF | CF | RF | CA
Like I did last year, I'm going to spend the few two weeks discussing the top ten players at each position based on 2008 performances. This year I'm using Justin's stats, which have all the nice features of the home-brewed stats I calculated last year, but with the added benefit of making Justin do all the work:
- BaseRuns-derived offensive linear weights, with park adjustments.
- League-adjusted replacement-level, since AL pitching is stronger than NL pitching.
- Proper position adjustments using the CA - SS - 2B/3B/CF - LF/RF - 1B - DH spectrum.
- Combined STATS and BIS zone ratings converted to runs to measure fielding.
Players are listed at the position they played the most, but the defensive numbers from all positions are included, and players' contributions to multiple teams are combined. For the top ten players at each position, I've listed their offensive contribution above replacement level and their defensive contribution (position adjustment plus fielding relative to position) compared to average. Position and fielding are broken out in the table at the end. If you add offense plus position, you'll get a number with the same use as VORP, but better.
To help you put the Total Value number in perspective, here are some benchmarks given a full season of playing time:
- League-average is about 20 runs above replacement.
- The cut-off for true All-Stars is in the 40 run range.
- Top 5 MVP candidates are worth at least 70 runs above replacement.
- MVP winners have been in the 90-100 run range the past few years.
Without further ado, here are the top ten third basemen of 2008 (2007 numbers here):
10. Scott Rolen (19 off, 14 def, 33 tot) -- By comparing Rolen to the #7 player on the list, it appears the Cardinals got the slightly better end of their trade with the Blue Jays. But keep in mind that Rolen's signed for one more year than Glaus, at a nice $11MM price tag. This much production and Rolen still only played in 115 games.
9. Ty Wigginton (26 off, 7 def, 33 tot) -- If you like surprise seasons, here you go -- not the fact that Wigginton had a decent bat, but the fact that he didn't stink in the field. All that in exchange for Dan Wheeler, an important (but overrated) piece of the Rays' World Series-caliber bullpen.
8. Carlos Guillen (28 off, 6 def, 34 tot) -- Guillen's a pretty underrated player, ranking fifth in last year's shortstop rankings. Not sure why the Tigers feel impelled to force him into the outfield as he's a plus a third base.
7. Troy Glaus (39 off, -1 def, 38 tot) -- For those of you who like consistency from your ballplayers, Glaus is your guy. His last four years of OPS+ read like this: 126, 122, 120, 124.
6. Aramis Ramirez (43 off, -2 def, 41 tot) -- I was going to praise Aramis for improving his fielding over his first few years in the league, but I'm just too annoyed that he won this year's National League Hank Aaron Award, when he should have finished about fifteenth.
5. Evan Longoria (36 off, 10 def, 46 tot) -- Just a reminder that the Rays have him locked up through 2016 at an average salary of $5MM. That's a ridiculously good deal.
4. Adrian Beltre (28 off, 26 def, 53 tot) -- 53 runs is about 5.5 wins above replacement. At $4.5MM per marginal win, the going free agent rate for Beltre's 2008 season is $25MM. He earned $12MM.
3. David A Wright (62 off, 5 def, 67 tot) -- This is the second year in a row Wright was worth nearly as much as ARod. He's easily a top ten MVP candidate.
2. Alex Rodriguez (60 off, 9 def, 69 tot) -- You'll notice these numbers don't include any sort of adjustment for clutch situations, where Rodriguez lived up to his reputation in 2008. According to Win Probability Added at Fangraphs, he was un-clutch to the tune of -3.2 wins. That's like the difference between Chipper Jones and Adrian Beltre.
1. Chipper Jones (66 off, 15 def, 81 tot) -- With a career .310/.408/.548 line (145 OPS+) and ever-improving defense, the chances of Chipper not making the Hall of Fame seem pretty low, don't they?
Here are the twenty-five most productive third basemen in 2008:
| Rank | Player | Off | Pos | Field | Total |
| 1 | Chipper Jones | 66 | 2 | 14 | 81 |
| 2 | Alex Rodriguez | 60 | 2 | 7 | 69 |
| 3 | David A Wright | 62 | 3 | 2 | 67 |
| 4 | Adrian Beltre | 28 | 2 | 24 | 53 |
| 5 | Evan Longoria | 36 | 2 | 8 | 46 |
| 6 | Aramis Ramirez | 43 | 2 | -4 | 41 |
| 7 | Troy Glaus | 39 | 2 | -3 | 38 |
| 8 | Carlos Guillen | 28 | 0 | 6 | 34 |
| 9 | Ty Wigginton | 26 | 0 | 8 | 33 |
| 10 | Scott Rolen | 19 | 2 | 12 | 33 |
| 11 | Chone Figgins | 15 | 2 | 13 | 30 |
| 12 | Ryan W Zimmerman | 16 | 2 | 8 | 26 |
| 13 | Mike Lowell | 17 | 2 | 6 | 24 |
| 14 | Casey Blake | 29 | 0 | -10 | 19 |
| 15 | Joe Crede | 10 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 16 | Blake R Dewitt | 9 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 17 | Willy Aybar | 10 | -1 | 7 | 17 |
| 18 | Melvin Mora | 29 | 2 | -15 | 15 |
| 19 | Martin M Prado | 16 | -1 | 0 | 15 |
| 20 | Russell Branyan | 11 | 0 | 2 | 14 |
| 21 | Kevin Kouzmanoff | 15 | 2 | -4 | 13 |
| 22 | Alex J Gordon | 26 | 2 | -15 | 13 |
| 23 | Jack Hannahan | 1 | 1 | 10 | 12 |
| 24 | Jorge L Cantu | 30 | -1 | -18 | 12 |
| 25 | Ramon Vazquez | 14 | 2 | -6 | 10 |
| 26 | Greg S Dobbs | 11 | 0 | -1 | 10 |
And the bottom seven, including a player the Pirates are hoping becomes known for more than "the guy traded for Manny Ramirez":
| Player | Off | Pos | Field | Total |
| Mike Lamb | -6 | 0 | -10 | -13 |
| Andy LaRoche | -14 | 1 | 5 | -9 |
| Brandon B Wood | -6 | 1 | -2 | -7 |
| Morgan Ensberg | -4 | 0 | -4 | -7 |
| Ryan Rohlinger | -5 | 0 | 0 | -5 |
| Donnie R Murphy | -3 | 1 | -3 | -5 |
| Jose Castillo | -5 | 2 | -2 | -5 |
0 recs |
29 comments
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Comments
What's up with Chipper Jones?
How does someone go from not good defensively at a relatively skilled position for most of his career to — at the same position — suddenly elite at 36?!
by philkid3 on Oct 31, 2008 7:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And, without looking it up, I believe he's been improving the last couple years.
So I don’t mean suddenly as in the light switched on this year, but something in the recent scheme of things happened.
by philkid3 on Oct 31, 2008 7:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he's rated well at 3B for a while, yes
last year, for example he was 10 runs above positional average. i believe he’s been decent since moving back in from left field.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 31, 2008 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've wondered the exact same thing...
and as a guy who watches the Braves all the time, I don’t see it. He doesn’t look any better in the field than he did when he was younger. It’s especially shocking if you happen to look at his Davenport Translations (no, not endorsing them, just saying), which have him going from perhaps the worst 3B ever until his move to left all the way to a plus defender after he came back from left.
That being said, I could easily be missing something. I never thought he was all that bad to begin with, though.
by BraveBronco0121 on Oct 31, 2008 7:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
looking at the Fans Scouting Report, here's where Braves fans put him (out of 100)
2008: 65
2007: 58
2006: 45
2005: 46
the FSR tends to be a year or two behind actual changes in talent for veterans, so maybe he’s been pretty good for a while now.
BraveBronco, what are Chipper’s strengths and weaknesses at third? first step, range, hands, arm strength, arm accuracy, etc…
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 31, 2008 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In my view, his biggest weakness has been range
and that’s not too surprising for a guy who’s had issues with his knees, quads, etc. The arm has been, in my view, solid but unspectacular, and he has seemed to charge the ball well on bunts and the like. It’s possible that one reason for his increased ability in the field is better positioning, something quite important that’s a bit tougher for the average fan watching on TV to notice.
by BraveBronco0121 on Oct 31, 2008 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I haven't really looked too deep but take a glance at this.
Chipper Jones in 2004:
Innings: 802
RZR: .693
OOZ: 52
Qualified 3B in 2004
Chipper Jones in 2008:
Innings: 987
RZR: .695
OOZ: 59
Qualified 3B in 2008
Looks like baseball’s third basemen as a whole have just gotten worse at defense in from 2004 vs 2008 while Chipper has stayed just about the same. Guys like Rolen and A-Rod have lot a step and those four ~.700 RZR, 70 OOZ guys in 2004 are gone or injured in 2008. Could also be sample size issues so if someone wants to look at 2005-2007 go ahead.
by VictorW on Oct 31, 2008 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you have to be careful about cross-year comparisons with zone ratings
…because BIS has changed their zones over the years. you really want to compute the league-average zone rating for each season and then compare Chipper’s rating to that for each season.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 31, 2008 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, i suppose that method assumes that talent stays static, which is a bad assumption given your argument
but the caveat about changing zones still applies
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 31, 2008 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, Alex Gordon looks horrible.
And Adrien Beltre looks great.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on Oct 31, 2008 7:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, the Royals sure could use another 1B
I foresee a move.
We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan
by Royal Kingdom on Oct 31, 2008 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jorge Cantu must field like the Penguin to get a -18...
by BraveBronco0121 on Oct 31, 2008 7:29 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
and some of that came at 1B!
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 31, 2008 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
When he was a middle infielder with the Devil Rays
some of us took to nicknaming him ‘the human lawn gnome’
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Nov 6, 2008 7:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Aramis v. Alexei
Am I the only one who got momentarily confused by this ranking and this post?
The one named after a perfume is good. The one named as if he were a hockey player is bad. There’s something wrong about that.
by klhoughton on Oct 31, 2008 12:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Feliz
0 RAR, -1 field, 2 pos, 1 total
That fielding rating is pretty surprising, given that he’s been historically awesome. Any Phillies’ fans notice anything wrong with him this year? That hitting rating is definitely no surprise, however.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 31, 2008 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He certainly didn't look very good in the postseason
but that was admittedly a very small sample of play.
He’s surprisingly old (given that he doesn’t seem to have been around that long and is Latin American— they tend to show up earlier because of how baseball’s option rules are structured), so maybe his agility is declining.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Nov 1, 2008 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
interesting to see Glaus' defense so low...
the general perception for cards fans is that he was much better than expected. do other fielding metrics have him any better?
by mattybobo on Oct 31, 2008 1:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+/- has him at +7 overall, ranked 13
and he’s about average by RZR. Davenport has him 21 runs above replacement and 3 above average.
One run below average seems like it’s in the right ballpark, though none of these numbers correlate with what my eyes told me. He seemed very good.
the enemy's gate is down.
by SleepyCA on Oct 31, 2008 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he was +6 runs at third last year by combined STATS and BIS zone ratings
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 31, 2008 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's what I was thinking
the guy seemed to just make play after difficult play, almost machine like.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 31, 2008 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hannahan
An historically awful season using traditional metrics yet, when properly analyzed, just awful….
by CapgrasDelusion on Oct 31, 2008 9:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What about Mark Reynolds
Any chance his numbers could be posted.
Thanks
by shoewizard on Nov 2, 2008 12:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
of course. but remember you can also click through to Justin's stats and look up anyone you like
looks like he was a butcher in the field. DB fans agree?
16 RAR, -13 field, 2 pos, 5 total
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Nov 2, 2008 12:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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