Update on the M's General Manager Search

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 3, 2008 11:39 PM EDT Comment 9 comments

From the Seattle Times we get the following names:

That list could include Kim Ng of the Dodgers, Rick Hahn of the White Sox, Tony LaCava of the Blue Jays, David Forst of the A's, Peter Woodfork of the Diamondbacks, Dan Jennings of Florida, Al Avila of Detroit, Jed Hoyer of the Red Sox and Tony Bernazard of the Mets. Two other names to tuck away: Jack Zduriencik, who directs amateur scouting for the Brewers, and Jerry DiPoto, director of player personnel for the Diamondbacks.

As well as John Hart, Bob Engle, and Randy Smith (!). I mentioned Forst, Zduriencik, Ng, and LaCava in my initial post on the topic days after Bill Bavasi was dismissed. Of the names listed Hahn, Forst, and Hoyer are known as sabermetric types with Hoyer having GM experience (albeit in a cooperative manner) and the former two potentially possessing first dibs on their current teams -- when/if Billy Beane moves up in the organization and Kenny Williams contract expires.

Dan Jennings is an interesting pick. His previous experience includes serving as the scouting director of the (then) Devil Rays from 1998 through 2002. During that time Jennings made such non-first-round-picks as Aubrey Huff (5th round, 1998), Carl Crawford (2nd round, 1999), Seth McClung (5th round, 1999), James Shields (16th round, 2000), Nick Blackburn (34th round, 2000), David Bush (4th round, 2001), Jonny Gomes (18th round, 2001), Jason Hammel (19th round, 2001), Joey Gathright (32nd round, 2001), Chad Gaudin (34th round, 2001), Elijah Dukes (3rd round, 2002), and Mike Pelfrey (15th round, 2002).

To put that into perspective: Jennings found at least 10 useful major leaguers within a decade from rounds 15 on; since 1998 the Mariners have had three players chosen later than the 15th that are still active in the majors, with no performance restrictions: David Purcey, Rich Harden, and John Rheinecker. Obviously it wasn't all Jennings, and you could probably do this with any of the others on the list who were in position of power.

Whether Jennings could replicate that type of success or not is doubtful, but at least the Mariners are seemingly moving away from rehires and that's quite encouraging. Now watch them hire Randy Smith.

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In all fairness, amateur scouting hasn't been the M's problem.

Rebuilding the scorched earth that was the farm system left by Pat Gillick was the only positive thing Bavasi did. (He traded the best parts of it away of course, but that’s a different story.) The two Bobs, Engle and Fontaine, are both really excellent at what they do. Hopefully they can keep those two in the organization.

As much as I’d love to see a new-school, analytically minded candidate hired, I think it’s much more important that the M’s hire someone who understands the concepts of freely available talent, player aging curves and the importance of defense. They need to hire someone who is capable of understanding the market and evaluating Major League talent, especially pitching. Someone who won’t sign Carlos Silva to 4/48.

Just reading what Lincoln and Armstrong have been saying lately, my money is on Kim Ng. LaCava or Hahn wouldn’t surprise me at all either. I think LaCava would be my first choice of those three, but any one of them is almost certain to be an improvement.

J.K.L.

by acblue on Oct 4, 2008 3:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough.

I guess it’s not too much of a stretch to say whoever they hire is an upgrade.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 4, 2008 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sounds like a "new-school, analytical approach" to me

As much as I’d love to see a new-school, analytically minded candidate hired, I think it’s much more important that the M’s hire someone who understands the concepts of freely available talent, player aging curves and the importance of defense. They need to hire someone who is capable of understanding the market and evaluating Major League talent, especially pitching. Someone who won’t sign Carlos Silva to 4/48.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 4, 2008 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're certainly more likely to find those qualities in a new-school GM, sure.

But I think there are traditionally-minded candidates out there that would make good decisions based on thought processes that aren’t necessarily analytical.

J.K.L.

by acblue on Oct 4, 2008 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LaCava is a no-brainer

LaCava’s roots go too deep in the game to pass him up. He’s an obvious choice.

by rukiddingme on Oct 6, 2008 10:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

LaCava isn't one of my top choices, but he'd be okay.

J.K.L.

by acblue on Oct 6, 2008 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

David Bush

I don’t know who the David Bush you are alluding to is, but if you are thinking about the Brewers starter, he was drafted by the Jays in the 2nd rd in 2002. I wasn’t aware of any other David Bush in the big leagues.

by slitheringslider on Oct 6, 2008 10:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That same David Bush was drafted but not signed by Jennings.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 6, 2008 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Some others drafted by Jennings:

Dan Wheeler (34th round, 1996)
Jason Michaels (44th round, 1996)
Heath Bell (69th round, 1997)
Willie Harris (90th round, 1997)
Brandon Backe (18th round, 1998)
Mike Jacobs (48th round, 1998)
Mike Fontenot (21st round, 1999)
Luke Scott (45th round, 2000)
Jacoby Ellsbury (23rd, 2002)

.. and iffy guys like Shane Costa, Micah Hoffpauir, Ridgway, Pridie, etc. And Riggans, Joe Kennedy, Ryan Raburn and Matt Diaz, etc.

I know RJ already knows all this and I’m not even sure Jennings would make a capable GM, not to mention many of the unsigned late-round picks I’ve listed were likely well-regarded prospects at the time who fell simply due to signability scares or some other issue and there was never any serious chance of a signing, but I just can’t stop myself from doing the complete list.

by RATW on Oct 7, 2008 6:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs