FIP+: American League West

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 27, 2008 3:00 AM EDT

Los Angeles of Anaheim Angels

NAME	IP	FIP+
Alex Serrano	1	364
Kevin Jepsen	8.3	145
Francisco Rodriguez	68.3	136
Jose Arredondo	61	134
Darren O'Day	43.3	130
Ervin Santana	219	126
Darren Oliver	72	121
Scot Shields	63.3	111
Jered Weaver	176.7	108
Shane Loux	16	100
Joe Saunders	198	96
Dustin Moseley	50.3	92
John Lackey	163.3	92
Jon Garland	196.7	89
Rich Thompson	2	82
Jason Bulger	16	80
Chris Bootcheck	16	79
Justin Speier	68	74
Nick Adenhart	12	74

If you hadn't heard, the Angels had a really good bullpen. Everyone knows about Francisco Rodriguez, everyone will know about Jose Arredondo, and everyone is going to be amused by Darren O'Day's throwing style, a bit side-armish. Darren Oliver and Scot Shields were extremely solid as well. Only two of the Angels starters were above average; Ervin Santana and Jered Weaver. Joe Saunders and John Lackey were just touches below average though. A quick way to find out which general manager should be fired: whoever gives Jon Garland a big contract. Justin Speier was abysmal, in part to an extraordinarily high homerun rate, look for that to regress.

Oakland Athletics

NAME	IP	FIP+
Joey Devine	45.7	234
Kiko Calero	4.7	212
Rich Harden	77	152
Jerry Blevins	37.7	137
Joshua Outman	25.7	132
Huston Street	70	131
Brad Ziegler	59.7	119
Kirk Saarloos	26.3	118
Justin Duchscherer	141.7	116
Chad Gaudin	62.7	108
Santiago Casilla	50.3	104
Dana Eveland	168	104
Joe Blanton	127	101
Alan Embree	61.7	98
Andrew Brown	35	95
Dallas Braden	71.7	94
Gregory Smith	190.3	89
Sean Gallagher	56.7	88
Lenny DiNardo	23	77
Jeffrey Gray	4.7	76
Keith Foulke	31	72
Dan Meyer	27.7	68
Gio Gonzalez	34	60
Fernando Hernandez	3	55

Generally speaking, it's never a good sign when only one of your pitchers tops 180 innings and only two actually log more than 150. Gregory Smith was a nice surprise, although it will be interesting to see how his poor K/BB rate plays moving forward, same with Dana Eveland. Joey Devine, Jerry Blevins, Brad Ziegler, and Santiago Casilla were extremely solid in relief. Alan Embree and Andrew Brown weren't awful either. Gio Gonzalez should be good one day, that day was not last season.

Seattle Mariners

NAME	IP	FIP+
Arthur Rhodes	22	179
Jamie Burke	1	135
Justin Thomas	4	117
Sean Green	79	116
Roy Corcoran	72.7	116
Cesar Jimenez	34.3	116
J.J. Putz	46.3	113
Felix Hernandez	200.7	112
Randy Messenger	12.7	100
Erik Bedard	81	97
Mark Lowe	63.7	95
Brandon Morrow	64.7	95
Ryan Rowland-Smith	118.3	93
Carlos Silva	153.3	91
Jarrod Washburn	153.7	90
R.A. Dickey	112.3	82
Ryan Feierabend	39.7	80
Cha Seung Baek	30	71
Miguel Batista	115	70
Jake Woods	19	59
Eric O'Flaherty	6.7	56
Jared Wells	5.3	41

Arthur Rhodes was shockingly good and sold high for a pretty decent young arm. Sean Green, Roy Corcoran, Cesar Jimenez, and J.J. Putz were the bright spots on the Mariner staff along with Felix Hernandez. Erik Bedard cannot be fairly assessed at this point, but Carlos Silva was pretty awful regardless of the defense behind him. I'm still unsure why the Minnesota Twins wanted Jarrod Washburn.

Texas Rangers

NAME	IP	FIP+
Brian Gordon	4	159
A.J. Murray	7.7	140
Frank Francisco	63.3	138
Franklyn German	21.7	124
Eddie Guardado	49.3	115
Kameron Loe	30.7	113
Jamey Wright	84.3	109
Sidney Ponson	55.7	109
Kevin Millwood	168.7	109
Wes Littleton	18	103
Warner A. Madrigal	36	95
Luis Mendoza	63.3	91
Dustin Nippert	71.7	89
Josh Rupe	89.3	87
Vicente Padilla	171	87
Kason Gabbard	56	85
Matt Harrison	83.7	85
Joaquin Benoit	45	84
Brandon McCarthy	22	83
Joselo Diaz	1	82
Scott Feldman	151.3	81
C.J. Wilson	46.3	81
Douglas Mathis	22.3	76
Eric Hurley	24.7	73
Robinson Tejeda	6	67
Tommy Hunter	11	60
Jason Jennings	27.3	55
Elizardo Ramirez	2.7	42
Kazuo Fukumori	4	39
Bill White	4	33

Frankly speaking, the Franks German and Francisco were solid for the Rangers. Kameron Loe has seemingly been around forever. Jamey Wright and Sidney Ponson weren't awful but Vincente Padilla and Jason Jennings were. There's a ton of room for improvement here, especially considering more than half of the pitchers were below average.

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Comments

Jamie Burke getting a swinging strike was one of the most awesome things about the Mariners' season.

You’re unlikely to find anyone who think JJ Putz had anything but a subpar year, and many people thought Felix was great. I know it’s not fair to directly compare closer and starters, but I still think it’s interesting that JJ looks better here.

Oh Felix, when will you stop teasing up all and make good on your immense talent?

Also, Roy Corcoran’s GB rates were absolutely ridiculous. They’re not sustainable in any way, but he still looks like a useful piece going forward. Bavasi quite obviously understood the concept of freely available talent as it relates to the bullpen; why he was seemingly unable to apply that knowledge to any other position I will never ever understand.

J.K.L.

by Aaron Campeau on Oct 27, 2008 3:15 AM EDT reply actions

Putz looks better due to the innings.

In reality he was above average, but not to the level you would expect from relievers. For instance, last year he finished with a FIP+ over 160, and a handful of relievers this season had FIP+ over 200 (namely Mariano Rivera who one of the best seasons in his career).

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 27, 2008 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions

'06 Putz was my favorite.

His ’07 looks better at first glance but it was largely propped up by a .199 BABIP. He was still great, but in ’06 he was unhittable.

J.K.L.

by Aaron Campeau on Oct 27, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions

06: 237.

Wowzas.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 27, 2008 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Dear Zeus,

I hope the A’s young starters’ misgivings were primarily a product of inexperience and not of true talent level. Most of the A’s starters have the stuff to get it done, but they walk way too many (Mr. Gallagher I’m looking at you). If they could some how exercise more control over their pitches, or get more swinging strikes, the A’s might be a legit contender next year (especially if they get a bonafide hitter or two, or get rid of BoCro). Unfortunately, at this point, it’s a wait and see game to find out who is real and who is not.

'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long

by DyeLongJustice on Oct 27, 2008 1:54 PM EDT reply actions

i know it's a pain in the ass...

but i’d still like to see FIP+ (and ERA+) use two different league-average FIPs/ERAs for starters and relievers.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 27, 2008 6:09 PM EDT reply actions

It's probably a worthwhile thing to attempt.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 27, 2008 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions

it gets obnoxious splitting innings for guys who both started and relieved

if you can get that data, you’re home-free. replacement-level ERA is about 5.75 for starters and 4.75 for relievers. but the league-average numbers are much closer, something like 4.50 and 4.25, I think. that’s because starters are better pitchers as a whole than relievers. so i’m not sure what numbers you’d use, exactly. maybe keep the starters at their actual average ERA and make the relievers’ average ERA one run less? that 3.50 seems a bit much… 3.75? 4.00? yeah, a pain in the ass

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 27, 2008 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions