Best First Basemen of 2008
Other positions: 2B | SS | 3B | DH | LF | CF | RF | CA
Like I did last year, I'm going to spend the few two weeks discussing the top ten players at each position based on 2008 performances. This year I'm using Justin's stats, which have all the nice features of the home-brewed stats I calculated last year, but with the added benefit of making Justin do all the work:
- BaseRuns-derived offensive linear weights, with park adjustments.
- League-adjusted replacement-level, since AL pitching is stronger than NL pitching.
- Proper position adjustments using the CA - SS - 2B/3B/CF - LF/RF - 1B - DH spectrum.
- Combined STATS and BIS zone ratings converted to runs to measure fielding.
Players are listed at the position they played the most, but the defensive numbers from all positions are included, and players' contributions to multiple teams are combined. For the top ten players at each position, I've listed their offensive contribution above replacement level and their defensive contribution (position adjustment plus fielding relative to position) compared to average. Position and fielding are broken out in the table at the end. If you add offense plus position, you'll get a number with the same use as VORP, but better.
To help you put the Total Value number in perspective, here are some benchmarks given a full season of playing time:
- League-average is about 20 runs above replacement.
- The cut-off for true All-Stars is in the 40 run range.
- Top 5 MVP candidates are worth at least 70 runs above replacement.
- MVP winners have been in the 90-100 run range the past few years.
Without further ado, here are the top ten first basemen of 2008 (2007 numbers here):
10. Justin Morneau (47 off, -21 def, 27 tot) -- This MVP "candidate" has a reputation as an above-average fielder, but the numbers didn't back that up this year. Even with a ten run bump to his defensive score, he was about as valuable as Christian Guzman and Placido Polanco.
9. Carlos Delgado (40 off, -12 def, 27 tot) -- I've written a lot of negative things about Delgado in the past few months, so I'll come up with something positive this time: while he appeared to be done as a major league player through the first two months of the season, his second-half performance pretty much assured his spot in the 2009 Mets lineup.
8. Adrian Gonzalez (47 off, -16 def, 31 tot) -- It's not often you find a first baseman who isn't overrated, but AGone just might be one (although he's also not underrated).
7. Miguel Cabrera (49 off, -17 def, 32 tot) -- Quick quiz: who led the American League in home runs and finished third in RBIs in 2008?
6. Carlos Pena (44 off, -6 def, 37 tot) -- Coming off his huge 1.038 OPS in 2007, Pena was looking like a huge disappointment early in 2008 (.737 OPS through May). But he rebounded after returning from an injury, helping the Rays fend of the Red Sox throughout August and September. Using WPA, there's an argument to be made for Pena as AL MVP (although it's a relatively poor one).
5. Joey D Votto (38 off, 0 def, 37 tot) -- Geovany Soto will run away with Rookie of the Year honors, but Votto deserves to finish a close second. Although Dusty attempted to turn him into a hacker, Votto held on to his walking skills and flashed a better-than-expected glove.
4. Kevin E Youkilis (54 off, -4 def, 50 tot) -- The Greek God of Walks saw his walk-rate drop once again in 2008, while he swung at and made contact with a higher percentage of pitches outside of the strike zone. That didn't seem to hurt his 2008 performance, but I wonder if pitchers will make adjustments next year.
3. Lance Berkman (68 off, 6 def, 74 tot) -- What surprises me is that Berkman is still only 32 years old. He has many more seasons left to do his best Jeff Bagwell impersonation, including the excellent range at first.
2. Mark Teixeira (65 off, 9 def, 74 tot) -- Mark Teixeira had one of the best five seasons in the majors, but it flew under the radar thanks to splitting time between the non-competitive Braves and the too-good Angels. Why some Yankee fans don't want to sign him to a $25MM per-year contract is beyond me.
1. Albert Pujols (89 off, 9 def, 98 tot) -- Yes, he's still good. His advantage over Youkilis, the number four first baseman, is as large as Youk's advantage over replacement-level players.
Here's a table listing the top 25 (with ties) most productive first basemen in 2008:
| Rank | Player | Off | Pos | Field | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albert Pujols | 89 | -11 | 20 | 98 |
| 2 | Mark Teixeira | 65 | -12 | 21 | 74 |
| 3 | Lance Berkman | 68 | -11 | 17 | 74 |
| 4 | Kevin E Youkilis | 54 | -8 | 4 | 50 |
| 5 | Joey D Votto | 38 | -11 | 10 | 37 |
| 6 | Carlos Pena | 44 | -10 | 4 | 37 |
| 7 | Miguel Cabrera | 49 | -10 | -7 | 32 |
| 8 | Adrian Gonzalez | 47 | -12 | -4 | 31 |
| 9 | Carlos Delgado | 40 | -12 | -1 | 27 |
| 10 | Justin Morneau | 47 | -12 | -9 | 27 |
| 11 | Jason Giambi | 41 | -8 | -12 | 25 |
| 12 | Ryan J Howard | 37 | -12 | -3 | 22 |
| 13 | Prince Fielder | 42 | -12 | -12 | 22 |
| 14 | Derrek Lee | 29 | -12 | 2 | 19 |
| 15 | Adam LaRoche | 28 | -10 | -2 | 17 |
| 16 | Lyle Overbay | 20 | -12 | 7 | 15 |
| 17 | Ronnie Belliard | 22 | -1 | -6 | 15 |
| 18 | James A Loney | 18 | -12 | 7 | 14 |
| 19 | Casey Kotchman | 14 | -11 | 9 | 13 |
| 20 | Todd Helton | 10 | -6 | 9 | 13 |
| 21 | Christopher Davis | 19 | -3 | -6 | 10 |
| 22 | Pablo E Sandoval | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 23 | Oscar Salazar | 7 | -1 | 2 | 8 |
| 24 | Nick Johnson | 10 | -3 | 1 | 8 |
| 25 | Ryan N Shealy | 7 | -2 | 2 | 8 |
| 26 | Paul Konerko | 17 | -9 | -1 | 8 |
And the least productive:
| Player | Off | Pos | Field | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross Gload | 0 | -8 | -7 | -12 |
| Mark Sweeney | -8 | 0 | 0 | -8 |
| Kory C Casto | -3 | -2 | -2 | -7 |
| Ben Broussard | -6 | -2 | 2 | -6 |
| Chad A Tracy | 2 | -5 | -3 | -5 |
| Aaron Boone | 0 | -3 | -2 | -5 |
| John B Bowker | 2 | -5 | -2 | -5 |
0 recs |
39 comments
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Comments
A-Gonz.
I’m shocked at how poor Adrian Gonzalez’s defense rated. He has a reputation of being at least average, and perhaps better, defensively.
by Peter Bendix on Oct 22, 2008 4:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i agree
he’s rated quite well in the past, too.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 22, 2008 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shocked indeed
I agree – this is very surprising to me, as he’s known to be quite good. In fact, he’s comparable to the best defensive 1b in Fpct, Put outs, and several other categories. It’s the RZR that seems to kill him.
In protest of adulthood
by Bradicus on Oct 22, 2008 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
fielding percentage and put outs (even range factor) are really bad stats to use
now, zone ratings don’t account for the first baseman’s ability to catch throws, which is a fair criticism, bu the range of player skill is no more than -5 to +5 runs compared to average in that category.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 22, 2008 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
one small quirk
Justin has a build-in minimum defensive value for any player, namely that of a full-time DH. I don’t agree with this for most applications of his stats, but it’s there. So, you’ll see some guys at weak defensive positions who rate better than their individual numbers actually add up to, like Jason Giambi and Prince Fielder (and Bobby Abreu when we get there.)
Justin’s idea is that a player shouldn’t be penalized for a manager’s dumb decision to play him in the field instead of DHing him, meaning a player really can’t be any worse than his offense combined with the DH penalty. Just thought I’d share that.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 22, 2008 4:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If I ever get around to finishing it
I have a long post almost ready for Royals Review using Justin’s numbers to come up with the best Gold Glove DHs of the year… It’ll make sense when I get there. Some guys are helped out. Bobby Abreu isn’t helped out that much — he pretty blows all around.
And can I just say AGAIN that this shows how screwed up defensive metrics are? Everyone knows that Ross Gload is a defensive God. Otherwise, the Bravest youngish GM in the business wouldn’t have given him a two-year extension, right?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Oct 22, 2008 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i look forward to that article. make sure to post a fanshot over here when it's up.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 22, 2008 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Curious
How is it fair to rank a Fielder or a Giambi as a first baseman if we are going to concede they should be DH’s?
by SkipT on Oct 24, 2008 3:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whether they should have been at 1B doesn't matter.
They were, and so that must be taken into account when assessing their value over the course of the season.
J.K.L.
by acblue on Oct 24, 2008 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we are going to evaluate them as 1st basemen than thier value at first should be included in the total
I realize that the idea of this series is to normalize player’s contributions for their position and in doing so we can compare them across the league. However, adjusting abysmal defenders to the DH baseline and then calling them first basemen is an unfair comparison.
by SkipT on Oct 24, 2008 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i agree -- if i were to re-do this, I'd add up the pos and field numbers and use that instead of Justin's modified totals
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 24, 2008 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, going from 98 at #1 down to 37 at #5 is a big drop. Pujols really is amazing.
by LPanas on Oct 22, 2008 4:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I almost wish Cairo had started at 1B for the Mariners all season so he could be included in this.
J.K.L.
by acblue on Oct 22, 2008 5:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
oh, he qualified, since he played his most games at 1B
Miguel Cairo (1 off, 5 def, -4 tot) - yay!
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 22, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
stupid formatting, one more try
Miguel Cairo (1 off, -5 def, -4 tot)
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 22, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait, +1 on offense, -5 on defense?
Wha?
J.K.L.
by acblue on Oct 22, 2008 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Durr. I get it.
I would still take Gload every day of the week.
J.K.L.
by acblue on Oct 22, 2008 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Straight up for Jeff Clement
It’ll hurt, but I’m sure the good people of Kansas City will move on eventually.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Oct 22, 2008 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, Youk's middle intial is E.
Kinda odd for a guy that you barely see a “E” after’s name.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 22, 2008 6:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
please see this comment above:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/10/22/639856/best-first-basemen-of-2008#9517107
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 22, 2008 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
Two things.
1) I did my own rankings a while ago and was just flabbergasted at how dominant Pujols was.
2) At the other positions, plus/minus and zone ratings seemed to disagree on a a few players here and there. At first, though, there seems to be a WILD disagreement. I wonder if it’s because of a difference in measuring things like fielding bunts.
In any case, it’s pretty different. I’ll post those ten players’ plus/minuses for reference in a reply.
by philkid3 on Oct 22, 2008 7:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i'm guessing the major difference is because STATS zone rating is averaged with BIS zone rating
the difference between BIS zone rating and Dewan’s +/- (which uses BIS data) is much less, although it can be significant on some players.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 22, 2008 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Delgado
“his second-half performance pretty much assured his spot in the 2009 Mets lineup.”
And, as with Minyan’s contract extension, cheering was heard in Philadelphia, Miami, and Atlanta.
by klhoughton on Oct 22, 2008 7:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i'm not sure how having an above-average player and a top 10 first baseman is bad for the Mets
his projection is probably a bit worse than his 2008 performance, but they could definitely do worse.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 22, 2008 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
He shouldn’t have been in the MVP discussion, but Delgado still had it this year.
I actually think, over his career, he’s been underrated. Since he started playing full-time in 1997, the only year he was probably a below average player was last year — which isn’t bad considering he’s in his decline. His ‘underratedness’ vis-av-vis his peers is, I would guess, related to a couple of things. First, he’s spent his prime in Toronto — not a major market comapred . Moreover, the Jays were always mediocre. The Jays were never good enough for him to get playoff exposure, but never bad enough for him to get “great player on a bad club” exposure.
Degado’s career OPS+ is the same as David Ortiz’s, for example, and while Delgado was never (to say the least) a good defender, I’m not sure it’s fair to let Ortiz’s DHing help him. Moreover, it looks like Ortiz is on the decline, so it will be interesting to see where their career numbers ends up. Ortiz’s best season, 2007, is still probably almost 2 wins inferior to Delgado’s awesome 2000. I hate to call Delgado “intelligent” and “articulate” because that is condescending in a way that I don’t think I need to mention in this context, but, agree or disagree, I think his taking a quiet stance and way of taking expressing himself regarding Puerto Rico and Iraq goes way beyond the usual ballplayer b.s. publicity crap. Having a brain probably works against him. He’s not “angry” enough to get the “tough guy” rep like Sheffield, he’s not wacky enough to be like Manny, and he’s not “fun” enough to be like Ortiz.
I’m not saying he’s a Hall-of-Famer like Sheff or Manny (although he should get at least as much consideration as Ortiz, based on their careers to date), but I just think he’s flown under the radar.
Hmmm… Never realized I liked Carlos so much…
/rant
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Oct 23, 2008 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
geez... please forgive all my typos, that's just me
e.g., “major market compared to Boston, New York, LA, or Chicago”
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Oct 23, 2008 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm mildly astounded that Daric Barton did not show up on the "worst" list
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Oct 22, 2008 9:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
thought the exact same thing
"Lefty relievers are like the different Mountain Dew flavors. New ones keep appearing, and people are willing to buy, but in the end most of them suck." - Gallagher's Watermelons
by scatterbrian on Oct 23, 2008 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he's a good fielder
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 24, 2008 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the heir to Ross Gload
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Oct 24, 2008 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought of the exact same thing.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
by Blicks on Oct 29, 2008 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Barton's breakdown:
+7 RAR, +6 fielding, -10 position, +4 total
That +7 RAR might seem high for some people, but Barton DID have a .327 OBP, which is league-average. His .348 SLG was poor, but considering his home ballpark and league, he was still better than replacement-level offensively. And yes, he fielded well, helping prevent his 1B penalty from dragging him below replacement-level overall.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 29, 2008 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pujols
109 before the position dock…heh.
by Omar Little on Oct 23, 2008 1:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pujols is ridiculous.
He’s about twice as good as Kevin Youkilis, who had an awesome season that I think should put him pretty high on the MVP ballot.
He was better than the 4th and 5th best first baseman in baseball COMBINED.
Or, rather, the 7th, 8th and 9th best first basemen in baseball combined.
Geez.
by philkid3 on Oct 23, 2008 4:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It would be interesting to see what he could do against major league pitching
(I kid, I kid. He most certainly is ridiculous)
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Oct 23, 2008 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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