Best Second Basemen of 2008
Other positions: 1B | SS | 3B | DH | LF | CF | RF | CA
Like I did last year, I'm going to spend the few two weeks discussing the top ten players at each position based on 2008 performances. This year I'm using Justin's stats, which have all the nice features of the home-brewed stats I calculated last year, but with the added benefit of making Justin do all the work:
- BaseRuns-derived offensive linear weights, with park adjustments.
- League-adjusted replacement-level, since AL pitching is stronger than NL pitching.
- Proper position adjustments using the CA - SS - 2B/3B/CF - LF/RF - 1B - DH spectrum.
- Combined STATS and BIS zone ratings converted to runs to measure fielding.
Players are listed at the position they played the most, but the defensive numbers from all positions are included, and players' contributions to multiple teams are combined. For the top ten players at each position, I've listed their offensive contribution above replacement level and their defensive contribution (position adjustment plus fielding relative to position) compared to average. Position and fielding are broken out in the table at the end. If you add offense plus position, you'll get a number with the same use as VORP, but better.
To help you put the Total Value number in perspective, here are some benchmarks given a full season of playing time:
- League-average is about 20 runs above replacement.
- The cut-off for true All-Stars is in the 40 run range.
- Top 5 MVP candidates are worth at least 70 runs above replacement.
- MVP winners have been in the 90-100 run range the past few years.
Without further ado, here are the top ten second basemen of 2008 (2007 numbers here):
10. Mark Ellis (11 off, 20 def, 30 tot) -- Sure, he batted .233 and posted an uninspiring 90 OPS+. But with the best range of any second baseman in the majors, Ellis was still an above-average player in 2008. Going into 2009 he should return to being an All-Star caliber player thanks to a healthy shoulder and a rebound to offensive career norms. Oh, and we here at BtB would like to remind everyone that Ellis will also eventually cure cancer, move the money Wall St. lost back to Main St., and be the first to visit a neighboring solar system.
9. Mike Fontenot (22 off, 8 def, 30 tot) -- Here's a guy who snuck up on my radar. Fontenot absolutely crushed the ball this year, to the tune of .305/.395/.514 in just under 300 plate appearances. He's old for someone with less than two years of service time --2009 will be his age 29 season -- but if he can give the Cubs even league-average offense with his good glove, they'll be more than happy to take it.
8. Jose C Lopez (26 off, 7 def, 33 tot) -- For some reason there's talk in Seattle of moving Lopez to first base. Sure, the Mariners don't have any good first base options (well, maybe Jeff Clement), but there's no reason, offensively or defensively to mess with his production. This organization needs a competent GM stat.
7. Mark DeRosa (35 off, -1 def, 34 tot) -- One reason for the Cubs' dominance of the NL Central this year was a career-year from DeRosa, who set personal bests in both OBP and SLG. He actually only spent about half his defensive innings at second base, putting in time at third and the corner outfield spots as well. Coupled with Fontenot's breakout season, Chicago will have a difficult time matching their 2008 production at second base next year.
6. Ian M Kinsler (45 off, -5 def, 40 tot) -- Hyped as an MVP candidate around the All-Star break, Kinsler's candidacy was derailed by a late-season injury and lack of fielding talent. His offense will never be a concern, however, assuring he'll be appearing on this top ten list for years to come.
5. Placido Polanco (27 off, 14 def, 41 tot) -- There was a point a few years ago when Polanco actually received the credit he was do, but he's been extremely underrated every other point of his career. Tom Tango has repeatedly shown that he's at least as good as Derek Jeter, but without the hype. 2008 was another high-OBP, stellar-defense, top-five year for Polanco. In fact, he matched his career AVG/OBP/SLG rate stats to within .001 points each. Ho-hum.
4. Dan C Uggla (41 off, 5 def, 45 tot) -- Looking at that defensive value, you either have to admit zone ratings aren't perfect or that Uggla improved his fielding an incredible amount over previous seasons. I'll take the wussy route and say it's a combination of both.
3. Brian Roberts (50 off, 9 def, 59 tot) -- He matched Pedroia's production at the plate once you consider home ballpark and was nearly a clone in the field. But sure, Pedroia's a lock for MVP while Roberts won't receive any votes. That makes sense.
2. Dustin L Pedroia (50 off, 11 def, 61 tot) -- Just in case my comment on Roberts sounded like Pedroia-bashing, it wasn't. (I was bashing the BBWAA and other mainstream media outlets.) After all, how can you not love a short dude with power? I've made the comparison in the past, but he's a lot like David Eckstein -- small, scrappy, swings from his heels, etc. -- except with actual baseball talent.
1. Chase Utley (53 off, 23 def, 76 tot) -- Utley can lay claim to being the most productive offensive second baseman and the most productive defensive second baseman in the majors, a combination that leaves a large gap between him and everyone else in overall value. He's easily the Phillies' MVP and the best NL player on a playoff team. The same could be said about Utley in 2007, as well.
Here's a table listing the top 25 (with ties) second basemen in 2008:
| Rank | Player | Off | Pos | Field | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Utley | 53 | 2 | 21 | 76 |
| 2 | Dustin L Pedroia | 50 | 2 | 9 | 61 |
| 3 | Brian Roberts | 50 | 2 | 6 | 59 |
| 4 | Dan C Uggla | 41 | 2 | 2 | 45 |
| 5 | Placido Polanco | 27 | 2 | 12 | 41 |
| 6 | Ian M Kinsler | 45 | 2 | -6 | 40 |
| 7 | Mark DeRosa | 35 | -1 | 0 | 34 |
| 8 | Jose C Lopez | 26 | 1 | 5 | 33 |
| 9 | Mike Fontenot | 22 | 1 | 7 | 30 |
| 10 | Mark Ellis | 11 | 2 | 18 | 30 |
| 11 | Akinori Iwamura | 25 | 2 | 0 | 27 |
| 12 | Brandon Phillips | 14 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 13 | Kelly A Johnson | 28 | 2 | -5 | 25 |
| 14 | Rickie Weeks | 17 | 2 | 4 | 23 |
| 15 | Joe S Inglett | 16 | 0 | 2 | 19 |
| 16 | Adam Kennedy | 2 | 1 | 16 | 18 |
| 17 | Kaz Matsui | 20 | 1 | -4 | 18 |
| 18 | Clint Barmes | 11 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 19 | Howie Kendrick | 13 | 1 | 0 | 14 |
| 20 | Ray Durham | 22 | 1 | -9 | 14 |
| 21 | Orlando Hudson | 17 | 2 | -6 | 13 |
| 22 | Asdrubal J Cabrera | 9 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 23 | Aaron Miles | 11 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 24 | Jamey Carroll | 12 | 1 | -1 | 12 |
| 25 | Jeff Kent | 11 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 26 | Alexei Ramirez | 17 | 2 | -9 | 10 |
| 27 | Mark Grudzielanek | 11 | 1 | -3 | 10 |
And the worst five (with ties):
| Player | Off | Pos | Field | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damion Easley | 1 | 1 | -11 | -9 |
| Eugenio Velez | 0 | 0 | -7 | -7 |
| Luis Castillo | 4 | 1 | -10 | -5 |
| Eric S Patterson | -3 | 0 | -1 | -4 |
| Luis A Maza | -4 | 1 | -1 | -4 |
| Argenis Reyes | -6 | 0 | 2 | -4 |
Hmm, I wonder where the blame really should lie for the Mets' failure to win their division for the second year in a row?
0 recs |
68 comments
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Comments
Jose Lopez really isn't very good at all.
J.K.L.
by acblue on Oct 20, 2008 4:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
are you being serious?
his pre-2008 track record isn’t stellar, but he was better than average with the bat this year and seems like an above-average fielder, no?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 20, 2008 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dave Cameron insists his defense is catastrophically bad.
I’m not convinced it’s as bad as he thinks it is, but Dave Cameron is right far more often than he’s wrong. In any case, his defense isn’t anything approaching good.
He’s not without value, and I still think he can become a pretty solid regular, but he’s below average right now.
J.K.L.
by acblue on Oct 20, 2008 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
These numbers say that he's almost exactly average right now, assuming I'm correct in 35 runs over replacement being average
54!
by joof on Oct 21, 2008 3:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think he's anywhere close to a +5 defender.
J.K.L.
by acblue on Oct 21, 2008 3:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that seems to be the consensus of Mariners fans...
http://tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2008.html
Of course, you all think Ichiro is phenomenal and the zone ratings have never agreed. Some interesting stuff there.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 21, 2008 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and actually, the fans saw Lopez as above-average in 2007...
http://tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2007_SEA.html
and 2006: http://tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2006_SEA.html
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 21, 2008 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think a lot of that has to do with the total collapse of Yuni's defense.
Yuni in ‘06 was otherworldy, Yuni in ’07 was very good, Yuni in ’08 was an absolute disaster. Jose looked better in ’06 and ’07 because he didn’t have to cover nearly as much ground. In ‘08 he probably looked worse than he actually was because Yuni wasn’t getting to anything anymore.
J.K.L.
by acblue on Oct 21, 2008 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think we mostly agree, at this point, that Ichiro is well above average in right and below average in center.
The defensive improvement after his move back to RF was pretty hard to be simple regression, and even if you take zone ratings with a grain of salt (which I do) they’re not totally without merit.
J.K.L.
by acblue on Oct 21, 2008 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I follow Tango's assumption that corner outfielders rate about ten runs worse as center fielders
Given that, how would you rate Ichiro?
RF +5, CF -5
RF +10, CF 0
RF 0, CF -10
UZR and the basic zone ratings lean towards option 1
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 21, 2008 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd say (somewhat counterintuitively) that he's +10 in RF and -5 in CF at Safeco.
I think Tango’s assumption is generally true, but Safeco is a different animal than most parks. The fact that the Mariners front office hasn’t figured out as of yet that a huge reason for the success of their pitching staff in the early 2000s had a lot to do with having Winn/Cameron/Ichiro in the OF is one of the most frustrating things about present day Mariners fandom.
RF at Safeco suits Ichiro’s skillset perfectly. I’d prefer he play LF, because it’s the more important defensive position given the park, but he’s probably +5 in LF. It’s just easier to fill RF at Safeco. An average COFer would do fine, and if they have the right skillset it might make them a defensive asset. Still, the most important thing would be to have solid defenders at all three spots, with a premium being placed on CF defense. The M’s relied on Horrible/Bad/Good last year, and that’s not going to cut it.
But to actually answer your question, in a park neutral context I’d say Ichiro is +10 in the corners and dead average in CF.
J.K.L.
by acblue on Oct 21, 2008 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't really have any stats on hand to back this up except for the remembrance of an offhand comment by Jeff or someone that our Defense was regressing back to non-terrible,
But I feel our defense started to regress when MacLaren was fired and Riggleman forced the players to take fielding practice. I would not be surprised if before Riggleman, he was terrible, and after Riggleman took over, he rebounded back up to norms.
54!
by joof on Oct 21, 2008 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no, league-average over a full season is in the 20-25 runs range
35 is approaching All-Star level
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 21, 2008 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kennedy is still really good defensively huh?
Might be a decent buy-low.
by R.J. Anderson on Oct 20, 2008 4:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Shhh!
This is supposed to be Mark Shapiro’s secret backup plan.
by Peter Bendix on Oct 20, 2008 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
odds on Beane signing him, too?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 20, 2008 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or Ricciardi...
Inglett, Scutaro, McDonald, and Kennedy. Can you imagine how few hits that infield would allow?
And how few hits that infield would get, offensively?
by Peter Bendix on Oct 20, 2008 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
J. P. is saving his money
for Orlando Cabrera — no “false numbers” on that guy
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Oct 20, 2008 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
or for that matter
produce. a truely – no hit infield
by RollingWave on Oct 20, 2008 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the Mets...
If I read this right, the Mets got truly and properly screwed by their second basemen this year — all of them. Does that sound about right? And do you think Castillo can rebound next year or should the Mets eat his contract and find some — ANYONE — else to play there? (Other than Easley, that is)
by WD to Evers to Chance on Oct 20, 2008 5:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
find someone else. quick. and a left fielder.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 20, 2008 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mets
Since Easley and Castillo were both in place last year, and were kept for this year despite similar “efforts” last year, the natural conclusion is that the Mets were rogered by Omar Minyan.
But, of course, Minyan has a new four-year contract, so that cannot be correct. (An unscientific poll taken in Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Miami will likely agree that my conclusion must be erroneous.)
by klhoughton on Oct 20, 2008 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where did Freddy Sanchez end up on the list? I was confident that he would be in the bottom five.
Pittsburgh Lumber Co.
http://mvn.com/mlb-pirates
by MBandi on Oct 20, 2008 5:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
he wasn't good ; )
Freddy Sanchez -3 RAR, 2 pos, -1 field, -2 total
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 20, 2008 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why the L in Pedroia's name?
Is the name Dustin Pedroia really that common?
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 20, 2008 5:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm using Hardball Times' player IDs via Justin
They use a lot of middle initials for whatever reason.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 20, 2008 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
where is cano at on this list?
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Oct 20, 2008 6:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
he's just a touch above replacement level
Robinson Cano 9 RAR, 2 pos, -7, field, 4 total
his fielding has historically been in the 0 to +5 runs range and his bat, well, we all know where his bat has been historically.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 20, 2008 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
cano
its almost unbelievable he’s not in the top 27, or top ten for that matter? yes he had a off year with the bat but he seemed to improve defensively…anybody that watched him play many games would agree.
by kdog on Oct 20, 2008 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
funny, i've heard most Yankee fans talking about how his defense has gotten worse
although the fans scouting report says he was still a touch above average, in line with previous seasons.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 21, 2008 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he was
up and down, pretty darn good in the first half, then had a stretch where he was disastorous.
by RollingWave on Nov 7, 2008 2:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
what are Ellis's career norms?
what kind of hitter do you expect him to be next year?
2003 .248/.313/.371, 81 OPS+
2005 .316/.384/.477, 127 OPS+
2006 .249/.319/.385, 84 OPS+
2007 .276/.336/.441, 110 OPS+
2008 .233/.321/.373, 90 OPS+
don’t get me wrong, I like Ellis and all….but he’ll need a great first half offensively to ever get an All-Star appearance beyond a one-player-from-every-team, Freddy Sanchez-type nod….and when you have to take an Oakland player, it’s usually a pitcher…
"Lefty relievers are like the different Mountain Dew flavors. New ones keep appearing, and people are willing to buy, but in the end most of them suck." - Gallagher's Watermelons
by scatterbrian on Oct 20, 2008 11:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
a 100 OPS+ is pretty reasonable, maybe a touch lower
Just because All-Star voters (fans, managers, players) don’t recognize Ellis’ value doesn’t mean he isn’t All-Star caliber. He probably won’t make an All-Star game ever, but his production helps his team as much as a real All-Star.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 21, 2008 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uggla improved by plus/minus, too.
From a -19 last year to a +4 this year.
by philkid3 on Oct 21, 2008 3:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pretty impressive.
Plus/minus numbers can fluctuate randomly like batting average, but if Uggla is somewhere close to average, he’s a heck of a player.
by Peter Bendix on Oct 21, 2008 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He used up a lot of his error allotment in the ASG
Curt never met a buttered roll he didn't like.
by CoachOfEarl on Nov 4, 2008 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also
Dewan would disagree about saying Roberts is Pedroia’s equal with the glove, FWIW.
-3 for Roberts, +15 for Pedroia.
by philkid3 on Oct 21, 2008 3:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
the STATS zone ratings are drastically different than the BIS zone ratings and Dewan uses BIS data
It’s one of the things that’s still a mystery — why STATS and BIS are so different on some players.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 21, 2008 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
racism
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Oct 21, 2008 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting defensive comparison
Second Base Inn GS G PO A E DP .987 *5.01
—————-———-—-—————-—-——-+——-
DPedroia 1376 155 157 279 448 6 101 .992 4.75
BRoberts 1320 151 154 289 441 8 110 .989 4.98
Looks pretty even to me.
BR played next to Millar and SS_OTD*rand(), while DP had more defensive backup support.
Curt never met a buttered roll he didn't like.
by CoachOfEarl on Nov 4, 2008 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
second base rankings
No big surprises here which makes me think it’s working well. The top 6 are about what I would have expected except I would have guessed Kinsler might have been higher. The defensive portion of the system is still iffy but better than WARP.
Lee
by LPanas on Oct 22, 2008 4:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i'm confident in the positional adjustment, but I agree zone ratings have room for error
is there a fielding system you’d prefer or are you just acknowledging the limits we currently have with defensive metrics, lee?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 22, 2008 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
fielding metrics
It’s mostly the limitations of the current metrics. There are systems I like better but they are not as accessible as ZONE and RZR. With fielding stats, I like to average together as many systems as possible so that any outliers get drowned out. When I did the fielding ratings last year, I combined Zone, RZR, +/- where available , PMR and UZR where available. PMR will probably come out in November so it would be interesting to see how it changed things if you also threw that into the average.
I definitely like the approach that you and Justin are using though. It’s an improvement over anything else I’ve seen.
by LPanas on Oct 22, 2008 10:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I also like combining systems, although I'd be careful to keep things symmetric
i.e. use similar numbers of STATS and BIS-based systems. RZR and +/- are from the same data, but +/- is better, in my opinion. If I had access to every system, I’d probably average +/- or UZR (BIS data, too) with Pinto’s system (STATS data) and regress towards Tango’s fans scouting report.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 23, 2008 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wish THT would just set up an engine to convert RZR/OOZ to runs, as outlined in their site
It sure beats me entering every freaking 3B’s data just to find out where Alex Gordon is at each week..
(Yes, I tried to do it once…)
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Oct 23, 2008 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
RZR
Devil Fingers, I also wish THBT would convert RZR/OOZ to runs. So many times, I see people taking the RZR number and I tell them they also need to look at OOZ. They ask me: “how do you combine them?” I show them and then they: “****, I’m not gonna do that for every player” and they go away.
by LPanas on Oct 24, 2008 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i assume you also mention something about cutting and pasting into Excel before they go away?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 24, 2008 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
studes would love to do that
but part of their deal with BIS is that they won’t have any sort of +/- system (runs, plays, whatever) to compete with Dewan’s +/- system. i think THT would like to see their data converted into runs saved more often by other people (with a link back to THT for credit, of course).
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 24, 2008 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm just clueless with statistics and stuff
if the idea is just to take each position, add up the total plays to get the expected rate, and then measure each player’s rate by that rate to generate a plus/minus plays number, then somehow add in OOZ plays in the appropriate ration, even that is to lengthy for an idiot like me, unless cutting and pasting into excel is easier than I think… (D’oh, now that I think about it, maybe I should try with IE rather than Firefox (I hate IE)…)
But somehow, even that doesn’t seem to work, right? Unless “regression” is something I’m already doing, I really don’t know how to incorporate that element of stuff, or even what it is.
I guess I could try taking a closer look at Justin’s explanation for how he did it.
I suppose averaging with ZR somehow converted to runs is also a good idea?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Oct 24, 2008 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's really not that hard to do in Excel. i'm sure you could do it
regression isn’t needed for measuring value. if you want to change these ratings into projections, then sure. and you’d also want previous years’ data.
but the other nice thing is that Justin already does what you want done for you (and everyone else) updates every few weeks are definitely frequent enough, too.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 25, 2008 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I actually did it last night
Perhaps I’ll email you with some more questions… The values seemed… OK, don’t match up with Justin’s for some reason.
Is Justin going to do the “total value” thing next year? I’m sure it’s a lot of work, but it’s truly impressive and useful. BP is great, but they don’t have anything that good on their site. At least no in the free stuff.
I’m thinking about (when I get the time) homebrewing my own BaseRuns/lwts+fielding spreadsheet for my own use, at least for position players… but I have a long way to go. I assume the idea (I’ve read Justin’s stuff on this, and some others, but I’m pretty dumb) is to use Baseruns to get the league weights of each offensive event, then use those to generate a league average player. Each player’s “absolute” runs (generated from their linear-weighted counting stats) are then compared to league average player. Add in replacement-level (whatever that is — 73% of league average, WAA+ 22.5/27.5, long story), fielding runs, and positional adjustments, and that’s it, right?
Maybe it would just be easier to use bRAA/wOBA + fielding + pos. and that’s good enough…
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Oct 25, 2008 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you fielding numbers won't match Justin's because he also averages in STATS' zone rating
… in addition to BIS’ zone rating (RZR at THT)
If you contact him he’ll probably share his fielding numbers with you and you could cross-check just the BIS half of the ratings with your own.
I’m guessing that yes, Justin will update his numbers again next year. If he doesn’t, then I will.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 26, 2008 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
By the way, not to get to personal business here, but I sent you an email yesterday or the day before in response to your but from a different addres… Did you get it? We don’t have to correspond here, I just want to make sure you got it.
On BIS/vs stats. I figured. I thought the regressed to PMR or the Fans’ scouting report, too. But I thought that was how the difference went. I’d like to average with ZR, too, but I’m not sure how to get their BIZ and plays data, unless it’s just the same…
I’m still not sure how it worked out, though. I’ve read enough to realize that STATS and BIS disagree on some guys… but I had Alex Gordon at -18 runs or so with RZR/OOZ this year, and Justin has him at "just’ 13.5… Also, Justin’s 2007 numbes have him at +4.5 runs over. My RZR/OOZ thing has him at -18 or so again… I know UZR had him at +4 last year, so I’m just curious, as I’m not sure how he got all the way to +4.5 by averaging. I love that number, as it gives a bit of hope after Gordon’s dreadful defensive 2008 gave back most the offensive gains (yeah, yeah, need three years of data, fiedlers go into slumps too, I know…)
Maybe I’ll contact him again later. I bugged him with a couple really long emails a few weeks back.
In any case, I’ve been thinking that at worst I can do my own “homebrew” total value thing is to ust use wOBA/bRAA for offense (“close enough” linear weights), RZR/OOZ for defense, then add adjustments…
Kudos to you if you take over Justin’s sheet. It really is an awesome resource.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Oct 26, 2008 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i got your email and i'll get back to you soon.
if anyone’s emailing Justin, keep it really short — he’s a pretty busy guy.
and to be clear, i’m not looking to take over providing these data. i’m sure Justin will keep doing it.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 27, 2008 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that wouldn't get THT in trouble, would it?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Oct 24, 2008 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
having other people take their data and use it? nope, it's available for everyone
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 25, 2008 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
O-Dog
I don’t understand the low ranking for Orlando Hudson. He has a reputation for being one of the best defensive 2bmen, he hit over 300 (his splits vs RHP are almost identical to Pedroia), and his OBP and SLG numbers are well above Polanco’s. I know he was hurt and only had around 400 AB, but I would think he is much better than the 17th best player at 2b.
by Pigman16 on Oct 23, 2008 11:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Working on an article about him...
It’ll be up after the World Series.
by Peter Bendix on Oct 24, 2008 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The rankings just look at the numbers contributed during the season at hand,
they’re very honest — they just take what actually happened in the field.
O-Dog has been a very good defender previous years, most metrics have him falling off this year.
He hits in a hitter’s park.
Replacement level is “higher” for position players in the NL because the pitching is better in the AL.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Oct 24, 2008 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this.
should have read it before posting my comment below.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 24, 2008 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he's been historically awesome, by both zone metrics and scouts
but he was “only” +5 runs last year by this same method. i’m guessing he truly is slipping in the field.
also, 400 ABs compared to 600 ABs is a big difference. the second guys is 50% more valuable, which adds up given solid talent (like a 20 run versus 30 runs comparison).
polanco also gets about a five run bump over Hudson and all NL players because AL pitchers are more impressive.
remember, this is more of a “who was more productive in 2008” list and not much of a (who would you want on your team for 2009" list.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 24, 2008 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I appreciate the feedback.
I look forward to the article. I have Hudson in a Strat-O-Matic league. Offensively, he’ll be fine. He’ll need a platoon partner, but then the limited AB would warrant the extra rest anyway. I am surprised to hear his defense has fallen off. Just based on watching him play, he looks like he has as much range as anybody and turns the DP as well as before.
by Pigman16 on Oct 24, 2008 12:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
(insert joke about "if you just watch Jeter play in the field every day"....)
all in fun
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Oct 24, 2008 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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