Daniel Cabrera: Not Improving

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 2, 2008 2:18 PM EDT

I've seen it mentioned at least twice elsewhere that the Baltimore Orioles might non-tender starter and constant "breakout" pick, Daniel Cabrera. Some might argue that Cabrera's potential is too delicious to lose, but at what point do you just write that off? Well, I think it's time to pull the plug.

For the duration of his career Cabrera has relied heavily on his fastball and slider. For whatever reason Cabrera has lost some velocity off of his fastball this season (down to 92.6 rather than 94) yet Cabrera's usage has not been derailed, in fact he's responded by throwing even more fastballs. Neither has helped Cabrera's control however since nearly 41% of his pitches were balls. To make matters worse Cabrera only invoked 5% of his strikes of the swinging variety. For a guy with supposedly amazing stuff that is beyond unacceptable. Cabrera's tRA increased for the third straight season up to 6.06 as did his FIP, up to 5.61.

Cabrera is 27 and statistically declining. The Orioles have done a nice rebuilding their farm system and funneling talent into the system. They can do themselves a favor by non-tendering Cabrera and letting another team wonder about his potential.

References:

Fangraphs

StatCorner

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DCabs showed a whole lot of promise early in the year when he started focusing on control over speed, which worked for a while, but then he lost the control again and didn’t regain velocity.

He came within 5 BB of winning the triple crown of BB, WP, and hit batsmen, thanks to missing about 4 starts.

This guy doesn’t agree, but he’s probably nuts or trying to generate a lot of interest:
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-sp.steele02oct02,0,2346865.column

If the Os make him another offer, I’ll burn my hat. Let him eat innings for someone else.

Curt never met a buttered roll he didn't like.

by CoachOfEarl on Oct 2, 2008 4:16 PM EDT reply actions

Garry Coleman?

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Oct 2, 2008 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions

He'd make for a good minor league signing on, say, the Cardinals

where he could work with Dave Duncan. I don’t know how much I believe in MLB pitching coaches actually doing that much for a pitcher, but it seems like the Cards are always turning some below average pitcher into something decent.

Cabrera could possibly be a good bullpen arm as well, since he seems to have the stuff, and maybe with only having to focus on getting a few outs, he can really pay attention to where he’s putting the ball and what he should be throwing.

'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long

by DyeLongJustice on Oct 2, 2008 11:30 PM EDT reply actions

Then they could sign him to a 4/41 year extension.

You knew that joke was coming.

I’m not sure if he would work in the pen or not, his stuff says yes, but the walks would hurt.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 3, 2008 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions

they would probably hurt less in the pen (depending on the situation)

than in a starting role, where a bad day can pretty much crush any chance your team has. at least relieves only have one inning to hurt your teams chances.

'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long

by DyeLongJustice on Oct 5, 2008 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Nate Silver's shown that high-K, high-ISO, high-BB pitchers get more out of a move to the pen

Cabrera fits #1 and #3.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 7, 2008 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Nice article, RJ.

But I wonder if it isn’t worth it for the Orioles to offer him arb. I mean, they’re not going to contend this year. The money won’t prevent them from making any other moves. And they’re not brimming with options for the rotation. Plus, if they need his spot and he’s not performing, they can send him to the bullpen. Or Siberia.

There is a TINY chance that Cabrera can ever be useful. But shouldn’t the Orioles, of all teams, be willing to take that chance, at least for 2009?

by Peter Bendix on Oct 3, 2008 10:24 AM EDT reply actions

Is there a chance anymore?

The money isn’t hurting them, no, but the roster spot is more valuable than that. Wouldn’t they be just as well served trying out, say, Jeremy Cummings as Daniel Cabrera (again)?

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 3, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions

It's better than giving 8 starts to Steve Trachsel.

So long as the Os are pitching guys like Trachsel, I don’t see a reason to ditch Cabrera. I don’t think he’ll ever be good, but that’s besides the point.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Oct 3, 2008 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions

That is true.

However I would assume they would take a shot on a minor leaguer with success rather than someone like Trachsel.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 3, 2008 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions

have you watched the Orioles?

That’s a slight jab. At the Orioles.

You’re right in that they won’t chase a Trachsel guy again, but I think the fact that they totally collapsed under arms like Olson and Liz might put them off “rushing” a guy into the majors. Personally I think it’s more that Olson and Liz just aren’t all that good, like Hayden Penn before them, but the way I think doesn’t often jibe with the way the Orioles think.

Thing is, like it or not (and I don’t like it much), the Orioles do need starters that can give them some innings, and only Guthrie and Cabrera were capable of that this year, and both of them were hurting at the end of the year. A couple of veterans that “eat innings” woudn’t be the worst thing in the world if they decide that Olson and Liz aren’t major league pitchers. I know it’s probably cautiously “too early” to say that about either, but watching the Orioles the last 11 years, I’ve seen my share of bad young pitchers, and I like to think I’ve a keen sense of knowing when a fellow does not have “it.” I never liked Cabrera, for example. I have sadly never been proven wrong.

Daniel Cabrera is a constant pain in the kiester, miester, and there are more O’s fans than just my curmudgeony self that would like him to just be out of the picture. Enough is enough, man. It’s torture watching him “pitch.” There is no pitching coach that will be able to “fix” him, because he doesn’t have a mechanical issue. He just sucks. If you put me in the majors, no pitching coach is getting good results out of me, and that’s true of Cabrera. My ERA might be 512.78 and his only 5.60 or so, but we both put our team in a position to lose at the end of the day. Ray Miller and Leo Mazzone lost jobs in part because of this schmuck; Rick Kranitz got nothing more out of him this season. When they went to “hey, you know what, throw your fastball and nothing else,” that raised the big red flag for me. They were out of ideas. And once he started getting shelled with that approach, it was over for good. There is no making him more than he is, a bad back-end starter that will bounce around forever if he stays healthy.

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

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Bad Left Hook

by Scott Christ on Oct 4, 2008 7:18 AM EDT up reply actions