Predictions for next Year
by dasox313 on Oct 18, 2008 6:51 PM EDT
43 comments
Next season is going to be an exciting one. The toughest divisions will get even tougher. The weaker divisions will get even weaker. This offseason will also decide how the rosters are dished out next season. Here are my Projections for next years Divisions.
AL East
Tampa Bay Rays 99 wins 63 losses
New York Yankees 96 wins 66 losses
Boston Red Sox 90 wins 72 losses
Toronto Blue Jays 81 wins 81 losses
Baltimore Orioles 71 wins 91 losses
AL Central
Chicago White Sox 95 wins 67 losses
Minnesota Twins 86 wins 76 losses
Cleveland Indians 83 wins 79 losses
Kansas City Royals 71 wins 91 losses
Detroit Tigers 71 wins 91 losses
Al West
Los Angeles Angels 100 wins 62 losses
Oakland Athletics 81 wins 81 losses
Texas Rangers 75 wins 87 losses
Seattle Mariners 62 wins 100 losses
NL East
Philidalphia Phillies 102 wins 60 losses
New York Mets 99 wins 63 losses
Florida Marlins 88 wins 74 losses
Atlanta Braves 78 wins 84 losses
Washington Nationals 64 wins 98 losses
NL Central
Chicago Cubs 100 wins 62 losses
St. Louis Cardinals 89 wins 73 losses
Milwaakee Brewers 81 wins 81 losses
Houston Astros 81 wins 81 losses
Cincinatti Reds 71 wins 91 losses
Pitsburgh Pirates 69 wins 93 losses
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks 81 wins 81 losses
Los Angeles Dodgers 76 wins 86 losses
San Fransisco Giants 70 wins 92 losses
Colorado Rockies 64 wins 98 losses
San Diego Padres 62 wins 100 losses
ALCS Tampa over Boston
NLCS Philidalphia over Chicago
WS Tampa over Philidalphia
These predictions maybe a little off. This is going to be a tight year. The strongest divsion is the AL East. The weakest is the NL West.
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can't we wait until after the winter?
considering we have NO idea what will happen?
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on Oct 19, 2008 10:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
quick thoughts -- take as my opinion
teams you’ve most overrated:
Angels
Phillies
White Sox
Cubs
Mets
Cardinals
Rays
teams you’ve most underrated:
Blue Jays
Braves
Tigers
non-Giants NL West
Mariners
Reds
Pirates
In general, your win totals are too spread out. When was the last time seven teams won 95 games, for example?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 20, 2008 12:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
How do the Blue Jays finish at .500?
They are going to be much better than that next year. My version of the AL East:
Sox 97-65
Rays 94-68
Jays 93-69
MFY 79-83
O’s 74-88
All records are -ish-y. The top 3 depend upon the off season.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 21, 2008 5:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
no way the Yankees are any worse than they were this year
they money they’ll save by losing Abreu and Giambi will be much better spent on Tex/CC/Burnett/whatever. Cano will be better. Melky won’t play. Posada will play. Hughes and Joba will start “all” year. One area of letdown should be the bullpen where Mo can’t be as good and Joba will be missed.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 21, 2008 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Umm, I heard someone in the Yankees organization say that Joba is most likely in the bullpen for next year.
If he’s not in jail.
Posada = Tek with a slightly better bat (only because of contract year performance)
Maybe I’m just hoping for them to have bad luck. CC’s return to the AL could be messy and I hope that Cashman acts stupidly again and forgets about the farm system.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 21, 2008 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
everything I've heard puts Joba in the rotation
it’s tough to project Posada, but he’s been much better than Varitek over the past four years:
Varitek: 122, 83, 103, 74
Posada: 109, 122, 154, 106
They’re basically the same age, but Posada has the whole injury thing to worry about. Roughing it, with heavy subjective regression, I’d project their 2009 OPS+’s at 80 for Varitek and 110 for Posada, which is a large difference.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 21, 2008 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
80 for Varitek?
Zombies have the batspeed to get around on the fastball?
But seriously, he’s no Gregg Zaun.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Oct 22, 2008 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Assuming that Tek is actaully playing.
Posada performed much better to get a contract.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 22, 2008 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Disagree, Sky.
The Yankees can easily get worse. They benefited from Mussina’s miraculous turn-around, and their overall pitching numbers were fairly strong. With Mussina likely retired and Pettitte a year older (assuming he’s resigned) the Yankees rotation could easily get worse.
So a lot depends on which free agent pitcher they go after (Burnett, Sabathia). Cashman might try to be cost-effective and stick with Wang, Joba, Pettitte, Hughes, and Kennedy, which I think would be a mistake. Burnett and Sabathia are both injury risks, and everyone else is a risk to suck in the AL East. Minus Mussina, the Yanks could easily pitch worse.
If Melky won’t play, then you’re looking at the corpse of Damon or the unproven Brett Gardner out there. According to your beloved Justin’s numbers, Cabrera was a net positive fielder in CF, better than Curtis Granderson. Taking him out and putting in, say Damon, would likely cost the Yankees more runs than they gained in offense. And who knows if Gardner could hit or field better? The overall defense could probably stay the same, or improve only marginally.
As for hitting, Cano has almost no plate discipline (.041 BB/PA in 08) and may never return to his peak years. A-Rod, Jeter are a year older, and Posada and Matsui are both returning from injury. Whoever mans CF may not be an improvement, and Xavier Nady could easily take a step back.
Now bsetc.’s 79 wins is low, but I think given the level of competition in the East that 85-90 wins is well within the realm of possibility. All they need is more injuries, a step back from the pitching, regression in the pen, continuing bad defense, and poor offense.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Nov 1, 2008 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i agree on Mussina regressing, but why would he retire?
Damon’s offensive advantage over Melky is much more than his defensive disadvantage.
Nady should regress a bit, but his glove is WAY better than Abreu’s.
There’s no way Cano gets worse than last year. Well, ok, there’s a way, but it’s much more likely he improves.
Even if Posada doesn’t return, that’s not a loss over last year, when he barely played.
Yes, Jeter, Matsui and ARod are aging, but Jeter should rebound a bit with the bat.
As for the rotation, Mussing’s regression hurts, but Wang will be back for (likely) a full year, Hughes should be league-average, Joba should start more than a dozen games, and Rasner/Geise/Ponson shouldn’t see the light of day.
And that’s before you consider any free agent signings, which should improve the team by 3-4 wins (CC, Tex) down to 1-2 wins (Lowe, Burnett).
It’s certainly possible that the Yankees win fewer games in 2009, but to expect them to seems a bit silly to me. But we’ve both presented our thoughts, so we’ll see what happens.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Nov 1, 2008 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was nowhere near trying to be scientific about them.
Actually, the records overall might not even out. That’s why I didn’t post my thoughts on all the other teams. I would probably end up with 50-100 more wins than losses.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 1, 2008 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Them = MFY.
I was tempted to put 0-162.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 1, 2008 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
varitek is done
Have u seen him swing? He’s either done or injured bad and hasn’t mentioned it. I would guess an under 80 ops+ next year
by kdog on Oct 23, 2008 1:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I would think it might be just him getting kinda tired.
During April and May, he actually did pretty well. He also picked it up after the All-Star break for a while.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=3760
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 23, 2008 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but even looking so bad this year he managed a 74 OPS+
the reason my totally subjective projection is for an 80 OPS+ is that his sudden drop in performance is probably due to at least some bad luck. i mean that’s more likely that either a totally talent-driven drop (true-talent 74 OPS+) or a huge drop in true talet (60 OPS+) with some good luck to bring his OPS+ up to 74 this.
The Marcels have him at .243/.335/.404/.739
The Marcels have Posada at .281/.371/.461/.832
My guess is that both of those are a bit high, given that Marcel knows nothing special about catcher aging compared to regular player aging. And knows nothing about Posada’s injury.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 24, 2008 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
shouldn't you maybe wait to see who's on these teams
before making predictions?
Example: how did Yankees suddenly improve to 96 wins? Did they trade for Peavy and sign Teixeira? Did they sign Manny and CC? Keep or trade Cano? Damon? Matsui?
"This is Rickey, calling on behalf of Rickey."
by scatterbrian on Oct 24, 2008 2:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Going off of BaseRuns run differential, the Yankees were a 91 win team last year.
J.K.L.
by acblue on Oct 24, 2008 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
as opposed to 89 actual wins
but I still wanna know how they improve without knowing about any personnel moves
"This is Rickey, calling on behalf of Rickey."
by scatterbrian on Oct 24, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Posada plays, better rotation coming into the year.
In addition, I have to figure that the author of this post was basing this on the assumption that the Yankees would make a few moves to get better.
J.K.L.
by acblue on Oct 25, 2008 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They will be older too
Jeter, Damon, A-Rod, and Posada will all be older.
by drabidea on Oct 30, 2008 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
predictions can always change
with the information we know right now and out best guess of how rosters will change, it’s certainly reasonable to make a guess. of course the errors bars will be larger than a guess made next March.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 24, 2008 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How do you see the Royals getting worse next year?
I see them making a jump over .500, around 84-88 wins.
Go to Wide World of Roto for all your fantasy news!
by JasonM on Oct 25, 2008 12:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
based on what? that's a large improvement
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 25, 2008 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What it's based on.
The breakout of Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, the continued dominance of Greinke, Soria closing the door in the 9th, and making a big free agent signing or trade. I doubt we will make the playoffs, but we will be in the hunt come september, IMO.
Go to Wide World of Roto for all your fantasy news!
by JasonM on Oct 25, 2008 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's possible I suppose, but I wouldn't count on it.
Everything has to go right and the Royals FO has to make at least one big FA move. I’m not holding my breath.
J.K.L.
by acblue on Oct 25, 2008 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Their big move last year arguably cost them half a win (Jose Guillen was -0.5 WAR on many accounts).
I think that 79-81 wins is more realistic, by my back of the envelope calculations. And that does include the continued maturation of both Butler and Gordon — “breakout” is a problematic concept, although I know it’s widely accepted. Not something to bank on.
If you think Mike Aviles is going to OPS .833 over a whole season… um…
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Oct 25, 2008 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's far more likely they improve through freely available upgrades that by making a big splash.
J.K.L.
by acblue on Oct 26, 2008 2:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mike Aviles?
Who said anything about him? I do think that he is going to be a steady player for us, maybe not at that level but pretty close. Alberto Callaspo is another guy I think is going to contribute to our success.
Go to Wide World of Roto for all your fantasy news!
by JasonM on Oct 26, 2008 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aviles looks good
he isn’t TPJ. He won’t hit anything like this next year, but with his defense, is at least a close-to-average AL SS.
Callaspo, if everything breaks right, might have a shot at being a league average 2B. He’s never hit for power — any power. He’s not fast. He seems to have a good glove, but his range isn’t great.
Upside is Luis Castillo without steals. Downside is Esteban German without the bat.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Oct 28, 2008 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
one would hope
Moore is good with cheap/free pitchers. My friends at RR like to say that we “don’t have enough data” on his skill acquiring position players.
I’m agreed on the pitchers, less so on the position players — the evidence we do have is pretty damning.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Oct 28, 2008 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
at least Tony Pena won't see any playing time
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 26, 2008 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's the main Aviles thing
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Oct 28, 2008 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Rays bullpen is going to implode next year
their success was unsustainable. Also, if they lose the WS, they are going to have an inevitable hang over while battling a hungry (and much improved) Yankees team and a seeking-vengeance Red Sox team, not to mention a good Blue Jays team, and a year-more-experienced Orioles team. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rays miss the playoffs next year.
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Oct 27, 2008 1:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
in a division with the Red Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays, that's not a bad bet
But “implode” is a little strong. Percival shouldn’t pitch much (and they won’t be important innings anyway). Bradford will be around the whole year and Hammel will be gone. There’s a good chance Jackson will be in the bullpen (or traded for something else pretty useful).
I full agree that the ERAs of the bullpen guys this year are too low for their skills, but regression will cost them no more than 3-4 wins.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 27, 2008 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
fair enough...but I still don't believe in the Edwin Jackson Project...yet....
and I’m still waiting on Howell as well, although I think he has turned the corner. Their offense will be solid and they do have starting pitching, so they will be competitive, but i don’t really see them making the playoffs next year (but that is my own hunch and not something provable or statistic based).
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Oct 27, 2008 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is totally biased and unscientific
but Cards win NL Central with 93 wins
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 31, 2008 4:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
going to find some pitching, huh?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 31, 2008 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Improved bullpen
More consistency from the closer/set up roles will add those seven wins to last year’s totals.
by ubeddie on Oct 31, 2008 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
going from a replacement-level reliever to Mariano Rivera v.2008 is worth about four wins
2/3 of that for a setup guy and half that for the second setup guy
so my initial hunch is that you’re overrating the bullpen increase. but i’m not that familiar with the Cards’ pen. were they disastrously bad? who’s on the team’s radar?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Nov 1, 2008 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ryan Franklin was there closer for a while.
What more does one need to know?
J.K.L.
by acblue on Nov 1, 2008 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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