Just how improbable was that Red Sox comeback?
by Peter Bendix
on Oct 17, 2008 1:05 PM EDT
WalkOffBalk has a fun win expectancy calculator - just plug in the situation and the score, and it will spit out the number of times the team has won in those circumstances.
From 1977-2006, visiting teams had a 7 run lead in the 7th inning 2134 times.
They lost 10 of those games.
That's 0.005%.
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JD Drew is immune to any stats that could discourage his performance.
Remember when we were kids and we mixed sodas together and called them "suicides"? It was OK though, because Dr. Pepper was always there.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 17, 2008 1:24 PM EDT 0 recs
JD Drew is apparently immune to idiot fans who boo him too.
He had an amazing season, yet nobody seems to give him the same love as they do to a number of other players.
by R.J. Anderson on
Oct 17, 2008 1:49 PM EDT
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its not BOOOO, its DREWWW
We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan
by Royal Kingdom on
Oct 17, 2008 2:08 PM EDT
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yeah.
Kinda like the fans who thought the obvious “YOUKKKKKKK” was a boo.
Remember when we were kids and we mixed sodas together and called them "suicides"? It was OK though, because Dr. Pepper was always there.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on
Oct 17, 2008 2:30 PM EDT
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we did the "DREEEEEWWWWW" thing here in st. louis too
so i’m not convinced it’s booing. i think the drew hatred is a tad overblown.
by mattybobo on
Oct 17, 2008 2:52 PM EDT
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Okay, I've heard the Philly story, what's the story in STL?
Woah, I just figured out the main storyline if the Sox make the WS vs. Philly.
Remember when we were kids and we mixed sodas together and called them "suicides"? It was OK though, because Dr. Pepper was always there.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on
Oct 17, 2008 5:54 PM EDT
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thats boston for ya
I like how they booed papi after his last AB when the only reason they were even still at the ballpark was because of his HR in his last AB. truly stupid.
by sharks on
Oct 17, 2008 2:21 PM EDT
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I'm not in love with some of my fellow Sox fans either.
But I think they got a bit emotional last night.
Remember when we were kids and we mixed sodas together and called them "suicides"? It was OK though, because Dr. Pepper was always there.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on
Oct 17, 2008 2:31 PM EDT
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It's worse than that
Bot 7, 2 outs, man on 2nd, 7 run differential
361 cases, 361 visiting team wins
Win Prob: 0.0 %
by WhyOWhy on Oct 17, 2008 2:51 PM EDT 0 recs
Yea, I ran that one too, but...
If you do the same thing with Bases Empty (instead of a runner on second), you get:
games: 1547
home won: 2
expectancy: 0.001
So the "expectation appears to be based on what has occurred, not what is more likely to occur.
by klhoughton on Oct 17, 2008 2:56 PM EDT 0 recs
expectation appears to be based on what has occurred, not what is more likely to occur.
I believe this is correct, yes.
by Peter Bendix on
Oct 17, 2008 2:58 PM EDT
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My brain hurts from that comment.
Fire away with the Sox and brains jokes.
Remember when we were kids and we mixed sodas together and called them "suicides"? It was OK though, because Dr. Pepper was always there.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on
Oct 17, 2008 5:55 PM EDT
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Hmm... home field advantage= 0.540% chance at game's start
Remember when we were kids and we mixed sodas together and called them "suicides"? It was OK though, because Dr. Pepper was always there.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 17, 2008 6:07 PM EDT 0 recs
So the average 0.500 team would win 43.5-ish games at home per year, and lose the same number on the road.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL_2008_standings.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL_2008_standings.shtml
Basically, the Rays and Sox are slightly above average on the road, and the Phillies are relatively-awesome.
Oh, and who knew this: All four ballplayers to die this year (so far) have been pitchers.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/ML_2008_death.shtml
Remember when we were kids and we mixed sodas together and called them "suicides"? It was OK though, because Dr. Pepper was always there.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on
Oct 17, 2008 6:17 PM EDT
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Nevermind the last point, that only goes up to Jan 27.
Probably not a page that someone would want to update often.
Remember when we were kids and we mixed sodas together and called them "suicides"? It was OK though, because Dr. Pepper was always there.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on
Oct 17, 2008 6:18 PM EDT
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10 in 2134
is ~ .5%.
not .005%
Pitching and defense win baseball games in September and October.
by ballyb on Oct 18, 2008 9:51 PM EDT 0 recs
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