Random Idea: FIP+
by R.J. Anderson on Oct 15, 2008 8:22 AM EDT
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PrintThink of it as a handy reference, like ERA+ and OPS+, just to see where player ranks with that particular ERA/OPS. I haven't league or park adjusted the numbers, and I'm not sure I will, but here's a look at the top and bottom ten using FIP+ (league FIP (4.22)/player FIP):
| Player |
ERA | FIP | FIP+ |
| Jonathan Papelbon | 2.34 | 2.01 | 210 |
| Mariano Rivera | 1.4 | 2.03 | 208 |
| Grant Balfour | 1.54 | 2.22 | 190 |
| Brian Fuentes | 2.73 | 2.24 | 188 |
| Jonathan Broxton | 3.13 | 2.26 | 187 |
| Hong-Chih Kuo | 2.14 | 2.28 | 185 |
| Kerry Wood | 3.26 | 2.32 | 182 |
| Brad Lidge | 1.95 | 2.41 | 175 |
| Tim Lincecum | 2.62 | 2.62 | 161 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 2.6 | 2.65 | 159 |
And the bottom 10:
| Daniel Cabrera | 5.25 | 5.61 | 75 |
| Justin Speier | 5.03 | 5.81 | 72 |
| Shawn Chacon | 5.04 | 5.83 | 72 |
| Brandon Backe | 6.05 | 5.87 | 72 |
| Tom Glavine | 5.54 | 6.02 | 70 |
| Josh Fogg | 7.58 | 6.07 | 70 |
| Radhames Liz | 6.72 | 6.17 | 68 |
| Miguel Batista | 6.26 | 6.23 | 68 |
| Joel Peralta | 5.98 | 6.3 | 67 |
| Tom Gorzelanny | 6.66 | 6.35 | 66 |
| Gregory Reynolds | 8.13 | 6.81 | 62 |
Not surprisingly a ton of relievers in the top 10, with the top three actually coming from the American League East -- the MLB version of the "Group of Death". My question for everyone is whether you would like to see more work put into this by myself and if you even find it useful at all.
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what's the point if not park- and league-adjusting?
the FIP rankings will be exactly the same as the 4.22/FIP rankings. you at least have to league/season-adjust FIP+ to compare Mo v.2008 to Mo v.2001 or Pedro v.1999 to Koufax v.1964. and since FIP using actual HR-rate, it would be nice to park-adjust at least that part of the equation using a HR park factor.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
I don't know, some people might not like adjustments like that?
I do, I’m just saying some might prefer simply raw data.
by R.J. Anderson on Oct 15, 2008 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
i understand not wantingn adjustments
but what does the 4.22/FIP calculation add to the story? why not just leave it as FIP?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Because most people likely do not know the average FIP level and this is an easier reference scale?
by R.J. Anderson on Oct 15, 2008 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Same collection of pitchers,average ERA: 4.14.
So we’re talking a slight difference.
by R.J. Anderson on Oct 15, 2008 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
FIP is defined to have the same league-average as ERA
You change the constant depending on the season
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
you could also "correct" for the advantage relievers have by comparing their FIP to average reliever FIP
and compare starters FIP to average starters’ FIP.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Good point.
This was every pitcher 50+ innings.
by R.J. Anderson on Oct 15, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
i was going to say
something along these lines. lincecum is pretty impressive there, though, no?
"The NY Mets are my favorite squadron" --Apu Nahasapeemapetilon
a few minor ones
easy of calculation, already on the ERA scale,
and, while I’m sure tRA is a better predictor of future ERA than FIP, I have yet to see a study demonstrating as such.
i say all that being a big fan of tRA
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
I studied the accuracy of FIP-like ERA estimators a while back.
If anyone wants to send me a set of tRA data with either Retrosheet or BDB IDs I can take a look at that as well.
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