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Best Center Fielders of 2008

Other positions:  1B | 2B | SS | 3B | DH | LF | RF | CA

Like I did last year, I'm going to spend the few two weeks discussing the top ten players at each position based on 2008 performances.  This year I'm using Justin's stats, which have all the nice features of the home-brewed stats I calculated last year, but with the added benefit of making Justin do all the work:

  • BaseRuns-derived offensive linear weights, with park adjustments.
  • League-adjusted replacement-level, since AL pitching is stronger than NL pitching.
  • Proper position adjustments using the CA - SS - 2B/3B/CF - LF/RF - 1B - DH spectrum.
  • Combined STATS and BIS zone ratings converted to runs to measure fielding.

Players are listed at the position they played the most, but the defensive numbers from all positions are included, and players' contributions to multiple teams are combined. For the top ten players at each position, I've listed their offensive contribution above replacement level and their defensive contribution (position adjustment plus fielding relative to position) compared to average.  Position and fielding are broken out in the table at the end.  If you add offense plus position, you'll get a number with the same use as VORP, but better.

To help you put the Total Value number in perspective, here are some benchmarks given a full season of playing time:

  • League-average is about 20 runs above replacement.
  • The cut-off for true All-Stars in the 40 run range.
  • Top 5 MVP candidates are worth at least 70 runs above replacement.
  • MVP winners have been in the 90-100 run range the past few years.

 Let's get rolling with the top ten center fielders of 2008 (2007 numbers here):

10. Marlon Byrd (27 off, 4 def, 31 tot) -- Not to ruin the surprise, but Byrd is the first of two Rangers' center fielders to make the list, an impressive feat in only 462 plate appearances.  He spent significant time in all three outfield spots with about half his innings in center.

9. Nate McLouth (45 off, -14 def, 32 tot) -- I have a hard time calling McLouth a center fielder, and a quick peek at his fielding ratings shows why: he's really a corner outfielder playing out of position.  But an .853 OPS is valuable anywhere on the diamond and he nearly broke the 700 PA barrier.

8. Cody Ross (23 off, 9 def, 32 tot) -- I've written about Ross before, and he's a great candidate for the title of "best player not on anyone's radar".  It takes a lot for me to be impressed with a guy who posted an OBP below league-average.

7. Torii Hunter (33 off, 3 def, 36 tot) -- For everyone out there who loves consistency, Hunter's your guy, at least on offense.  As is to be expected, his range in center continued to drop in 2008, but he's still average out there.

6. B.J. Upton (36 off, 1 def, 37 tot) -- Upton ranked ninth in last year's center field top ten list and I'd be surprised if he didn't crack the top five next year.  His natural grace has led many ignorant observers to believe he's lazy in the field, but learning to take better routes is really all that stands between him and being a significantly above-average defender.  And a healthy shoulder is all that stands between him and a return to 25+ homeruns.

Star-divide

5. Shane Victorino (30 off, 10 def, 40 tot) -- Victorino was a stud in right field last year and had the same defensive value in center this year.  Nice job, Phillies.  A .020 point improvement in SLG and a drop in league-wide offense explains Victorino's ten run jump in value in 2008.

4. Josh H Hamilton (51 off, 0 def, 51 tot) -- Surprisingly, we're not hearing about a Home Run Derby jinx for Hamilton, even though he followed up 95 RBIs pre-break with 35 RBIs post-break.  No need to worry, though, as his OBP actually improved in the second half and his SLG only dropped .050 points.  While the Rangers could certainly use Edinson Volquez's arm right now, Hamilton was the more valuable player this year and should remain so in the future.

3. Curtis Granderson (47 off, 5 def, 51 tot) -- While ARod ran away with last year's AL MVP, Granderson was actually within ten runs of total value, thanks to his disgusting range in center.  For whatever reason (some Tigers fan claim it's because of prehis increased size) the zone ratings didn't see that range this year.  He's still a tty good baseball player.

2. Carlos Beltran (53 off, 13 def, 66 tot) -- No matter what the Manhattan-based publications tell you, Beltran is one of the ten best position players in the world.  He gets on base, hits for power, steals bases without being thrown out, plays center field, and runs down everything out there.  Given what Manny and Tex are going to sign for this year (and what Andruw Jones signed for last year), his $18MM yearly salary is a steal.

1. Grady Sizemore (64 off, 11 def, 76 tot) -- I probably shouldn't give away my pick for MVP in the very first article of the series, but this isn't the first time I've blown the surprise.  Sizemore is very similar to Beltran in almost all phases of the game, and his ten run advantage in 2008 comes mostly from putting up his offensive numbers against tougher pitching and coming to bat 40 additional times.

Here's the breakdown of the top twenty-five center fielders in 2008.  Any difference of less than five runs is meaningless, and I like to see a ten run difference before making any bold claims about who was better:

Rank Player Off Pos Field Total
1 Grady Sizemore 64 2 9 76
2 Carlos Beltran 53 2 11 66
3 Curtis Granderson 47 2 3 51
4 Josh H Hamilton 51 0 0 51
5 Shane Victorino 30 2 8 40
6 B.J. Upton 36 2 -2 37
7 Torii Hunter 33 2 1 36
8 Cody Ross 23 1 9 32
9 Nate McLouth 45 2 -16 32
10 Marlon Byrd 27 -2 6 31
11 Jody Gerut 27 1 3 31
12 Mike Cameron 23 2 1 26
13 Matt R Kemp 32 -1 -7 24
14 Chris B Young 14 2 6 22
15 Carlos A Gomez 5 2 14 21
16 Skip M Schumaker 20 -2 2 20
17 Rick Ankiel 25 1 -7 19
18 Jacoby Ellsbury 21 -2 -1 18
19 Adam L Jones 9 2 6 17
20 Scott A Hairston 18 -1 0 17
21 Gabe Kapler 13 -1 3 16
22 Reed Johnson 12 0 2 14
23 Jim Edmonds 16 2 -6 14
24 Vernon Wells 23 2 -12 13
25 William Venable 4 0 8 12

And finally, because it's amusing for everyone who doesn't root for a team with one of these players, here's the bottom five in 2008 production:

Player Off Pos Field Total
Andruw Jones -14 1 2 -11
Corey Patterson -14 1 3 -10
Michael R Bourn -7 2 1 -5
Dexter D Fowler -3 0 -1 -4
Joey R Gathright -2 1 -3 -4

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Comments

Display:

Wow!

The numbers thought that Grady’s defense was vastly overrated in 2007, but he apparently lived up to the hype in 2008. He really does deserve that MVP award. Dammit, Pedroia.

by Peter Bendix on Oct 15, 2008 11:18 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i hear Grady's arm is a weakness, right?

oufield arm, double-play turning, and non-SB baserunning are the three main things missing from Justin’s stats. the first might be possible to include once John Walsh runs his 2008 outfield arm ratings at THT.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 15, 2008 11:26 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes, Grady's arm isn't great.

But if he catches so many balls, that hardly matters :)

by Peter Bendix on Oct 15, 2008 11:27 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

well, your Indians need to find some pitchers who don't allow so many baserunners in the first place

think the Indians might pick up Sizemore’s $8.5MM 2012 option? ; )

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 15, 2008 11:42 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

son of Max Venable, sometime Padre outfielder.

The Denker bus is now bound for San Diego. Those who were passengers on it are now angrily stranded at a gas station in Modesto, CA. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Oct 15, 2008 11:55 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   2 recs

Too easy for any Giants fan..

Remembering the days of Max Venable.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Oct 15, 2008 11:39 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I know that Gathright got more starts in CF than DeJesus

but I’d be interested to see where David would have ranked.

We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan

by Royal Kingdom on Oct 15, 2008 11:33 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

DeJesus would be tied with Ross and McLouth at 8th on the CF list

32 RAR
-2 pos
2 field
32 total

I’m surprised he was only a +2 fielder given all the time in left field. Wasn’t he always a plus fielder in center?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 15, 2008 11:40 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good instincts, but a little slow for a CF.

We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan

by Royal Kingdom on Oct 15, 2008 2:59 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Where did Aaron Rowand show up on this?

The Denker bus is now bound for San Diego. Those who were passengers on it are now angrily stranded at a gas station in Modesto, CA. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Oct 15, 2008 11:55 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

uh, 40th, sandwiched between Coco Crisp and Willy Taveras

11 RAR
2 pos
-11 field (surprisingly low)
2 total

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 15, 2008 12:00 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yuck

His range seemed alright out there, but his arm is disastrously inaccurate.

The worst part is that he wasn’t even the biggest waste of money on the team.

The Denker bus is now bound for San Diego. Those who were passengers on it are now angrily stranded at a gas station in Modesto, CA. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Oct 15, 2008 12:06 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

WHEEEE!

Four more years!

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Oct 16, 2008 1:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cameron (12), Kapler (21)

Picking up Cam’s 10M option and resigning Gabe Kapler seem like even more obvious moves for the Brewers after seeing this.

by bretsky07 on Oct 15, 2008 12:05 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cameron's a no-brainer, I think

I’m not sold on Kapler, though. Yes, nice season, but it’s the first decent one in a long time and he unsurprisingly missed significant time to injuries. $2MM? Sure. $5MM? No.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 15, 2008 12:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Asterisk

Dexter Fowler. He played in only 13 games! :-P

"Never Surrender Dreams" - Inscription on J. Michael Straczynski's bench

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ on Oct 15, 2008 2:17 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes, well, um. . . .

"Never Surrender Dreams" - Inscription on J. Michael Straczynski's bench

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ on Oct 15, 2008 2:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hey, Sky.

I think we had a discussion like this at B-F once, but do you think these would be better if they used, instead, plus/minus for the defensive portion?

Or not?

The problem ,of course, is that plus minus is not in terms of runs, but I’m sure something could be done about that (and Dewan wrote in an article I read a form of estimating the runs a player’s +/- performance is worth).

I have a Bill James Online subscription mostly to see up to date +/-.

by philkid3 on Oct 15, 2008 8:06 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

P.S.

I do a very rough analysis for my MVP ballot at the end of the season where I use a +/- run estimate and add that to VORP. Certainly less accurate than this, but I’m not doing it for a well regarded blog or anything. I’d like to say I’m surprised by how incredibly close that comes out to this.

by philkid3 on Oct 15, 2008 8:24 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i'd be curious to see which players are the most off between systems

i’m guessing DHs and catchers, followed by high-walk hitters. and then anyone that STATS ZR most disagrees from BIS zone rating, naturally.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 15, 2008 8:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

if you go to Justin's stats, you can just copy and paste everyone into Excel

he uses THT id’s, so it might be a bit tricky lining up with BPro — although maybe Dewan uses the same id…

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 15, 2008 8:49 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

interesting question

Dewan’s system is better than regular RZR+OOZ available at THT because it’s based on the same BIS play by play data, but uses the mini-zones and accounts for things like handedness. But I like that Justin’s stats combine BIS and STATS zone ratings because they use different grid systems and it’s good to have two “eyes” recording the same information to mesh out any weird stuff. Overall I’d say Justin’s combined ZR’s are on par with Dewan, but I’m not really sure.

To convert from play to runs, just multiply by .8 and you’ll be close enough. .8 is the linear weights difference between an out and a single. ish.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 15, 2008 8:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

.8?

Interesting. Do you have some source material I could read on the reason by that handy by any chance?

by philkid3 on Oct 15, 2008 8:33 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

quick explanation

the average outcome of a plate appearance is +/- 0 runs, by definition – it’s AVERAGE. an out is .3 runs for the batting team. a single is +.5 runs for the hitting team. again, on average - different situations value those outcomes differently. so, if a fielder turns a single into an out, that’s a change of .8 runs for the made play.

google “chris dial zone rating” for a good article on BBTF from many years ago. he was the pioneer of this method and shows slightly more accurate numbers than .8 — and they vary by position.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 15, 2008 8:51 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i hate the auto-strike-through feature

an out is negative .3 runs. a single is positive .5 runs.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 15, 2008 8:51 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

do you have any way

of figuring out how Rick Ankiel would have ranked through July 26 (when he herniated himself trying to catch a game-tying home run?) He had a .890 OPS before the injury, and .594 after, and was reduced to pinch hitting because he couldn’t run…

the enemy's gate is down.

by SleepyCA on Oct 18, 2008 2:49 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Way to Go, Dusty!

Anyone else not surprised at Corey Patterson’s position?

Anyone at BtB want to come to his senses about this piece yet? The 1972-76 teams at least had a great defensive middle-of-the-diamond.

by klhoughton on Oct 18, 2008 10:12 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Granderson

It’s good to see Granderson come in at #3. The +/- system would have killed his fielding component. I’m curious to see how he does on PMR.

by LPanas on Oct 22, 2008 4:16 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Lee, what's your assessment of Granderson's current skillset in center?

If you had to guess, how many runs did he saved the Tigers in 2008? What do you expect his rating to be in 2009? Was he really as good as the numbers said last year?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 22, 2008 4:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sky, Granderson really was that good last and really did fall off a lot this year. I don’t know what the problem was this year but he is a skilled outfielder and, by all accounts, has a tremendous work ethic. I expect his 2009 range to be closer to his 07 than 08.

Lee

by LPanas on Oct 22, 2008 10:17 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

mclouth

i dont understand how he can be so bad defensively while only having 1 error in 152 games that doesnt seem right

Pittsburgh Pirates Rebuilding Since 1992

by kstanz41 on Oct 30, 2008 4:33 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Why these numbers are BS

Coco Crisp Fielding: -12.6.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Nov 1, 2008 12:02 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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