Will the Cincinnati Reds be the Surprise of 2009?

by Peter Bendix on Oct 14, 2008 5:00 AM EDT Comment 29 comments

The transformation of Tampa Bay from the bottom-feeding Devil Rays to the championship-contending Rays has truly been amazing. Even though some in the sabermetric community saw it coming, the Rays have still exceeded nearly everyone’s expectations, vaulting into the ALCS.

Much of Rays’s improvement can be attributed to a drastic improvement in their defense. The Rays defense went from historically-bad in 2007 to one of the best in the league in 2008. In fact, the Rays allowed exactly 300 less hits this year than last year, despite having very similar walk- and strikeout-rates. The pitching staff undoubtedly improved – they gave up 33 fewer homers this year than last year, partially due to addition by subtraction. However, the improved Rays defense is a very big reason for the Rays’s turnaround.

With that in mind, are there any teams that may be primed to make an unexpected run in 2009?

Baseball Prospectus’s Jay Jaffe wrote about PADE – Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency – as a better stat to evaluate team defense than simple defensive efficiency .

The Reds had the worst PADE in baseball this season. Despite this, they "only" allowed the 23rd most runs in the league – yes, this is a lot, but it suggests that much of the problem is the Reds defense, rather than the pitchers themselves.

The numbers bear this out. The Reds staff allowed the most homers in baseball – but part of that is because Great American Ballpark is quite homer-friendly. They were middle-of-the-pack in walks (16th, to be exact), and they were fourth (!) in baseball in strikeouts. (Incidentally, in 2007 the Rays had the second most strikeouts in baseball.)

The Reds have had very bad defenses over the last eight years. And, not coincidentally, the Reds have not even managed to be .500 once over the last eight years. In fact, the last time that the Reds’s PADE was in the top half of the league was also the last time they were over .500. Take a look:

The Reds have a unique opportunity in 2009. They will be without both Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. – both of whom have been well below average defenders. Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, and Brandon Phillips are all excellent defenders. The Reds have the opportunity to dramatically improve their outfield defense if they can find two solid defenders to complement Bruce. While Edwin Encarnacion is a very poor defender at third base, if the Reds can find a shortstop with above-average range, they may also be able to somewhat offset Encarnacion’s poor play at third.

The Reds have an underrated pitching staff that was severely hampered by the defense behind them this year. The Reds have an opportunity to dramatically improve their defense for 2009; if they do so, they may be the surprise story of 2009.

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Not going to happen

They’d have to move their 2B (Phillips, right?) to SS if they signed Ellis.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 14, 2008 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or move Ellis to shortstop

Sure, his arm will be exposed, but his range is so good that he’d still be an above-average shortstop. Ellis will probably be the most underrated free agent signing of the off-season.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 14, 2008 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dont hate the idea

it would be better than what they had this yr

by sharks on Oct 15, 2008 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Signing Mark Ellis has become a meme of sorts around here.

Signing him is my solution to everything.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 14, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hell, I can think of seven organizations who should bring in Ellis as their GM

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 14, 2008 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Nationals need higher TV ratings?

Sign Mark Ellis.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 14, 2008 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ellis is for the A's only

or so I’m hoping. If the A’s don’t sign Ellis, they are screwed until Cardenas is ready.

'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long

by DyeLongJustice on Oct 14, 2008 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm hoping against hope that he makes his way to the Indians

But it sounds like he’s going to re-sign with Oakland.

by Peter Bendix on Oct 15, 2008 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

for peanuts?

does he not want to test the FA market? JP Ricciardi would be at least one GM to consider paying him the doug

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 15, 2008 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So would Shapiro, I imagine.

JP has Aaron Hill, so he may not be as interested.

by Peter Bendix on Oct 15, 2008 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well I think Beane has already had soem preliminary talks with him...

so while not saying he’s completely off the market, it does seem that the A’s have a significant leg up on the competition.

'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long

by DyeLongJustice on Oct 16, 2008 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stadium error?

I thought Reds played in Great American and the Phillies in Citizens Bank?

by Junker23 on Oct 14, 2008 1:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's embarrassing.

And now fixed. Thanks.

by Peter Bendix on Oct 14, 2008 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

offense

The pitching is looking very good for the Reds next year, assuming they can bring back a few of the bullpen arms (Affeldt has been a particularly strong contributor) and everyone’s healthy.

The biggest remaining dark spots defensively are third base and shortstop. If someone else can be scrounged up to play third (Todd Frazier or Chris Valaika are probably still a year away, unfortunately), Eddie should probably be moved out to left field now that Dunn is gone. That would leave only shortstop as the clearest place where we have a defensive concern. I love the Mark Ellis idea—we’ve been tossing that around since June. Heck, Phillips could probably play shortstop too if they could find someone to play second.

The other problem that the Reds have, however, is offense. Without Dunn, the Reds are a pretty weak offensive team. Jay Bruce might be better next year, but aside from that I don’t see anyone on the current roster improving much over 2007’s performances. Ryan Hanigan being the apparent starter at catcher isn’t likely to help much, nor are any of the current options at shortstop. The Reds are going to need to learn to score some runs, and that isn’t easy given that the only player we have who’s particularly good at getting on base is Joey Votto.
-j

On Baseball and the Reds

by JinAZ on Oct 14, 2008 1:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree that the biggest difference between the Reds and the Rays is offense.

Wheras the Rays already had Carl Crawford, BJ Upton, and Carlos Pena (plus solid contributors in most other positions), and they were helped even further by the breakout of Longoria, the Reds have Votto, Phillips, and even their good players are inconsistent. Between Votto, Bruce, and Phillips, they have a solid core, but unless Encarnacion breaks out further, or other areas of the lineup exceed expectations, their offense will probably be pretty lame.

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Oct 14, 2008 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

I don’t think the Reds are in the position to enact such a dramatic turnaround as the Rays. However, I think that their defense was SO BAD that even an improvement to league average could take them up to the .500 mark, and a little offense (and/or some good luck) could take them over that magic 81-win total.

And once you approach 85-or-so wins, you’re talking possible Wild Card contention in the NL.

by Peter Bendix on Oct 14, 2008 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

until the Cubs came along, that used to be contention in the NL Central

'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long

by DyeLongJustice on Oct 14, 2008 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Healthy?

“The pitching is looking very good for the Reds next year, assuming they can bring back a few of the bullpen arms (Affeldt has been a particularly strong contributor) and everyone’s healthy.”

YOURS. In size.

Did Dusty quit?? Or are you guys thinking that Aaron Harang (or, more likely, Johnny Cueto) will be Mario Soto?

by klhoughton on Oct 14, 2008 7:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I thought

they were a dark horse in 08, guess i overshoot too soon.

like Tampa though, they might need a year or two longer than some are claiming, unlike Tampa, they’re not exactly in a killer division… to say the least.

by RollingWave on Oct 14, 2008 11:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I remember

hearing peter gammons mention the rays and the reds as two possible dark horse canidates for the season, after that i jumped on the rays train and told a couple friends to keep an eye on the rays this year. I just figured eventually all those high picks had to work out to something. And of course, as a reds fan, I was all over the reds as a wild card team (i always thought the sCrUBS would win the division then blow it in the playoffs). That didnt happen, but hey, maybe next yr they turn it around and not make the summer of baseball suck.

One thing the reds havent had the last 8 losing seasons: joey votto & jay bruce. Votto looks like a stud hitter, Bruce looks like a future big time HR threat.

It really really depends what they do in the offseason. I would sign a SS, a LF, and maybe trade EE and aguire another better defending 3B. if they kept EE i wouldnt be pissed however. Also even though the pitching actually looks like a strength i would make a free agent splash for a pitcher, like perez or maybe even sheets. homer’s on the block as well, but i wouldnt pull the trigger on him unless the deal was absolutely worth it.

there have been holliday rumors, but that would involve cueto, and i think that would be a huge, huge mistake.

by sharks on Oct 15, 2008 1:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Rays

To be fair, the Rays aren’t successful simply because they’ve had a lot of high picks. Yes, they’ve acquired some great players at the top of the draft, but they’ve also drafted very well in later rounds (James Shields, Andy Sonnanstine) made some fantastic free agent acquisitions (Carlos Pena, Akinori Iwamura), and made some extremely astute trades (Matt Garza, Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, Dioner Navarro, Jason Bartlett, JP Howell).

by Peter Bendix on Oct 15, 2008 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

true

but it does help that in all those later rounds they had the top picks in those too. regardless you’re right, and part of the reason I jumped on the bandwagon was because of the garza deal, i also viewed that as a very savvy trade to aquire some pitching which I thought was holding them back (since drafting pitching is sometimes a crapshoot at best). I also felt shields would be better than last year and drafted him for my fantasy team, sonnanstine i didnt see coming. Their defensive improvments were key as well, something already noted. and yes pena and iwamura were huge signings. But the fact remains: you must draft well to become an elite team in the MLB.

who’d they get balfour from, i figured they picked him up in free agency since he’s had injury troubles for awhile. he used to be on the reds after he got let go from the twins, that was a few years ago though.

by sharks on Oct 15, 2008 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i see

for seth mclung from milwaukee. extremely astute trade indeed

by sharks on Oct 15, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the fact remains: you must draft well to become an elite team in the MLB.

I agree, but only if there’s a qualifier:

You must draft well to become an elite team in the MLB unless you have a top-5 (or maybe top-10 payroll.

by Peter Bendix on Oct 15, 2008 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

very true

by sharks on Oct 15, 2008 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Seeing Red?

They will be the surprise team of 2009, however they will not make the playoffs. I say this for two reasons. One, the Cubs are a better team. They are not winning the NL Central. Two, the Phillies and likely the Mets (that is once they hand out the worst contract in baseball history to K-Rod and sign Abreu to a godawful contract and/or Manny) are better than just about anything Cincinatti can muster, that is unless Bruce and Votto fulfill all of their potential next season.

by Omar Little on Oct 18, 2008 2:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs