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How good are the Tigers?

How good are the Detroit Tigers?

Yes, the lineup is great and I don't doubt that they will lead the league in runs.  Even before Cabrera, they had a great lineup.

But what about the pitching?  The top 3 guys (as per the article linked below) have logged WAAAY too many innings for their ages.  I worry about them. The other two guys are Rogers and Robertson - who have issues of their own.  

And then there's the bullpen.

Anyway, the poll in the article has 72% of respondents saying they'll win the Central.  I find this number a bit high?  Are they really that good??

http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/21/the-2008-detroit-tigers/

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Expectations for the Tigers seem to be suffering from "if everything goes right" syndrome. I doubt that the offense will be the juggernaught it's being predicted to be. I'm not worried that much about Verlander, he has shown he can handle the load (at least for now), but here are some issues I have with the 2008 Tigers:

-Ordonez is probably going to have his AVG drop at least 50 points next year, there's no reason to expect the MVP caliber production that article claims.
-Polanco can't be entirely discounted because he did the same thing just two years ago but it's a better than even chance that his AVG drops some as well, though not to the degree Ordonez's will.
-Jacque Jones isn't good.
-Neither is Pudge Rodriguez these days.
-Renteria is another guy with an unusually high BABIP last year and he isn't what he once was defensively.
-Granderson is an excellent player but he isn't young, last season may well have been a career year for him. Even if it's not there isn't any particular reason to think that he will continue to improve.
-Sheffield's health and production level are both questionable, his days of posting an OPS of .900 or better are certainly gone.
-Count me as being very skeptical that getting Willis off the Marlins means that he will suddenly live up to his generally oversized reputation, especially leaving from the weaker league.
-Robertson is ok but his 2006 stands out as a major outlier from his otherwise unremarkable career.
-Rogers is old and a health risk.
-Bonderman has had five years to live up to expectations and has failed completely, his tendency to significantly underperform his FIP is beyond the point of being bad luck and well into the realm of a real flaw.
-The bullpen may suck.
-The defense, the real reason the 2006 pitching staff looked so great, isn't as good any more. They have some good spots still but also some bad ones.

So no, I'm not a believer in the Tigers being an uber-team. They're probably very good, the AL Central is a very close race at this point between them and Cleveland, but they have flaws and potential pitfalls all over the place. Most teams do of course, that's the way things are, but I feel too many people are ignoring the ones on the Tigers.

RaysBaseball.com
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by Jim Wisinski on Jan 22, 2008 6:53 PM EST   0 recs

+1
On Rentaria, he's a classic case of a good player that will have some monster seasons sprinkled in.

Since he essentially replaces Sean Casey in the lineup, people assume that's a big upgrade offesnively. which isn't true, it IS a upgrade if he hits like 07 (125 OPS+!), but that is very unlikely, IF he hits like his career rate (97 OPS+) then it's virtually the same thing as Casey (96 OPS+ last year) of course he'll probably outdo Casey if only because Casey is falling off a cliff. (or is he?)

Having him is probably better than having Casey in 08, but if your expecting him to outhit Casey 07 by a ton your probably mistaken.

Miguel Cabrera is a major upgrade, but a lot of it will be offset by some of their guys comming back to earth ( Magglio , Polanco , Granderson, Rentaria ) and / or continued age regression (Pudge / Guillen)

I think it is more than a little questionable that they'll lead the league in RS. If i'm betting money on it I'd still go with the Yankees at this point. who outscored the Tigers by 80+ runs last year. yes A-rod and espically Posada will come down, but with that team really anyone is capable of having a MVP season and that's their biggest strength. their bench / depth is also better off than the Tigers at this point. (which is responsible for a lot more runs than most people assume )

Will the Tigers most likely finish top 3 in RS? yes, will the MOST likely lead it? no. will they MOST likely finish in the 2 of their division? yes, will they definately win their division? no.

by RollingWave on Jan 27, 2008 1:04 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Bullpen
the bullpen is the biggest question mark.

and great point on the defense.

by em3 on Jan 23, 2008 10:49 AM EST   0 recs

Also
The last player that I could find that had back to back 20 triple seasons was wayyyyyyy back before world war 1 ... (Sam Crawford 1913/14 ) so the chances of Curtis Granderson hitting that many Triple again seems slim to none.
(though at his age he might improve elsewhere to offset it anyway)

by RollingWave on Jan 27, 2008 8:47 AM EST   0 recs

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