When You're Wrong, You're Wrong

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2007/3/5/11735/47786

Remember that Five Cy Young Sleepers for the N.L. Cy Young Award piece I posted back in March? Here's the #4 candidate:

4.  Anthony Reyes, St. Louis Cardinals

This might just be another gut-feeling I have, but many projections systems around like Reyes.

Reyes only pitched 85.1 innings for the world champs last year.  He showed both strengths and weaknesses last season, posting above average strikeout and walk rates while struggling with groundball tendencies and home runs.

I find it quite odd however that Reyes' HR/9 mark was almost 2.0 at home in the 37.2 innings he pitched at the new Busch Stadium.  Last season it was a bit tough to hit home runs at Busch (0.887 park factor) and I think in a full season Reyes will pitch better at home.  The sample size of 37.2 innings is quite small, and one year's worth of park factor data for Busch Stadium is hardly sufficient, but Reyes may have just had a little bad luck at home even with the high flyball rate.

It's also important to mention the quality if the Cardinals outfield defense.  Last season Cardinal outfielders were great on the defensive end (+19 from John Dewan), so being a flyball pitcher for St. Louis might not be all that bad after all.

PECOTA, Bill James, CHONE and ZiPS all project Reyes' ERA under the 4.00 mark, but none of our projection systems call for 200+ innings.

I don't think it's too silly to think Reyes can reach the 200 inning mark however.  The Cardinals still lack rotation depth and if Reyes can stay healthy, 25+ starts aren't out of the question, if anything they're a certainty.

Reyes is far from a perfect pitcher, but if he can increase his groundball tendencies a bit, you have to like his upside.

Reyes in '07 so far:

ERA:  6.08
W/L:  0-8
VORP:  -4.3 runs
SNLVAR:  -0.4

And as I write this Reyes is facing the Oakland A's.  

His line so far:

1.0 IP, 4H, 5R, 5ER, 1BB, 1K, 1HR allowed.

Ouch.