Prior a Friar

by RJ Anderson on Dec 26, 2007 6:32 PM EST in Trades & Transactions

I talked about Mark Prior not too long ago here, and today he signed a 1 year, 1 million dollar deal with the chance for him to earn five million. Simply put it's a very good deal for both sides, Prior goes home, gets to work with Bud Black, pitches in PETCO, and if he's healthy forms a heck of a rotation.

The Padres get a low risk, high reward starter to join Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Greg Maddux, and if they can stay healthy Randy Wolf and Prior. You'd expect above average performances (ERA+ of 120 and above) from Peavy and Young, and average (95-100) from Maddux and Wolf, but Prior is the wild card, if he can replicate his career average ERA+ 123 the Padres might have the best rotation in the league for the second straight year.

The risks here are Prior not pitching well or at all and losing the Pads a mere million, or Prior pitching extremely well and testing out the open market in 12 months and cashing in, but he seemed pretty deadset on pitching at home, I can't see him simply bolting on the Pads.

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Agree somewhat!

But since 2003 he has had injury problems. I just don't find any clue that Prior is going to be healthy. He himself is also worried. But who knows, maybe he could performance pretty well.

by wathihgkym on Dec 27, 2007 12:55 AM EST reply actions

True

But not awful for a 1 million dollar gamble if he's right.

DRaysBay

by RJ Anderson on Dec 27, 2007 1:43 AM EST up reply actions

if he makes about 4 league average starts

considering the price of starting pitching these days, it will be more than worth it.

low risk, high upside. we're talking about a guy with a career ERA+ of 123 (IIRC). it's very hard to go wrong with a 1 year contract. it's even harder to go wrong with a really cheap 1 year contract. if he doesn't pitch, it could be a completely irrelevant signing. on the other hand, this could be a pennant changing signing. i'd certainly pay the million, along with the ancillary medical/rehab costs, to find out which it is.

by larry on Dec 27, 2007 1:30 PM EST up reply actions