Beyond the Box Score: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: World Soccer Digest for Soccer Fans!

Behind-the-Scenes Baseball

Recently I read Behind-the-Scenes Baseball: Real-Life Applications of Statistical Analysis Actually Used by Major League Teams...and Other Stories, and I came to a realization while going through it. I really have no idea what those with the position of statistician do for a major league franchise. I understand that they provide analysis (no kiddin') but I never really thought about the day-to-day things, or how exactly the information was presented, and how the manager reacted to it. Doug Decatur's book certainly helped to answer a few of those questions.

Decatur worked as a statistical consultant for the Reds, Brewers, Cubs and Astros, as well as for player agent Myles Shoda. The first section of the book details some of his stories from his time with those clubs, from particular analysis he gave that worked out -- such as sugggesting Greg Vaughn be put in the Brewers starting lineup -- to various other ideas, like dealing for Ron Gant (Braves minor leaguer) and Cecil Fielder (playing in Japan) and putting them on the 1990 Reds, who would win the World Series even without the help of those two players.

Star-divide

What I found most intriguing is how well the Decatur and his managers got along. In the third section of the book, Decatur shows how Astros manager Phil Garner applied statistical analysis to the 'Stros daily in order to make up for lost ground. Using Brad Lidge for more than an inning, rearranging the Astros batting order in a "bunched" manner, and calling up Brandon Backe were all Decatur-inspired moves, and all were essential to the Astros sneaking into the playoffs in 2004.

Decatur also gives off the vibe of being a very passionate fan, which helps the readability of the book. For those of you on the fence about statistical analysis -- although I don't think anyone who reads this particular blog has any such problems -- Decatur helps to show that yes, lovers of sabermetrics are capable of enjoying a baseball game and being passionate fans.

The center of the book is made up of the GM IQ test, which I found fascinating. The questions are made up from various publications and research projects, from some of Bill James Abstract work to more recent Baseball Prospectus studies. For your viewing pleasure, and in the hopes that you will pick up a copy of the book, here are a few sample questions for you to try out:

1. Which team would be expected to win the most games?
(A) a team which scores 1000 runs and allows 900 runs
(B) a team which scores 800 runs and allows 700 runs
(C) a team which scores 600 runs and allows 500 runs
(D) all teams will win the same number of games

2. True or False: Almost all good young pitchers with strikeout rates below 4.00 per game disappear quickly

3. True or False: On the average, closers pitch worse in "non-save" situations than they do in save situations.

4. Which free-agent strategy works best:
(A) sign to "fill a need"
(B) sign the "best free agent" on the market
(C) "whole-scale" signing
(D) let all your players become free agents and then blame your 100 loss season on the size of your market

5. Late August 2004. The Reds decide to dump Barry Larkin. They have two choices for the replacement shortstop: Felipe Lopez or Andy Machado. Should the Reds immediately make a decision on who should play shortstop, or should they alternate each player, giving them 20 starts each the rest of the season and make a decision based on those 20 starts?

I will provide the answers at a later time, but I'd like people to comment first. Astros manager Phil Garner scored a 97 on this 100 question test. I must say that this book, combined with my respect for Garner's use of Lidge in the 2004 playoffs, has changed my opinion of him as a manager. I'm very curious as to how many other managers are as open-minded about statistical analysis as he has shown himself to be.

This book was a quick and worthwhile read, and it has been published as a paperback, which means your wallet isn't going to take a heavy hit either. It is certainly worth a purchase and your time if you are at all interested in the goings on inside of a major league front office with a statistical consultant.

0 recs  |  Comment 3 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

GM IQ test
Sounds like an interesting read, and I will certainly check it out, BUT, any "GM IQ test" where Garner scores a 97/100 needs a major overhaul, IMO.  Being open-minded about statistical analysis is only a start, and not very meaningful on the grand scheme of things.  Having the intelligence/ability to understand and make decisions based on statisical observations is far more important.  

by jbm on Sep 22, 2006 12:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

re:
I got the sense that Garner trusted Decatur's findings, would question him about the reasoning, and then applied what he thought was useful. It was surprising to me, as I said, but he does have some tendencies that fit the description.
"I don't set the rosters, I just make fun of the guy who does" - Rob Neyer

by Marc Normandin on Sep 22, 2006 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Book
Marc

Thanks for posting this. Book sure sounds interesting.

by Cyril Morong on Sep 22, 2006 6:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

We use numbers and stuff.
Community Guidelines
Why be a member?
Start posting on Beyond the Box Score »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Leopold_butter_scotch_southpark_small
Using the TVC
Small
Determining Batted Ball Rates using Pitch Type and Location
Small
a new xBABIP calculator
Img587561916661595
Top 15 high school MLB draft prospects
Small
PZR-based Win Values 2001-2006
Small
The "30 parks on a budget" challenge
Sunflower_small
World Series Simulation, Game #6
Small
JT20 Dynasty League
E52205a2_small
New Look
Sth70021_small
Exploring Hit f/x, Albeit Badly

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Defensive Projections Take 2
The Baseball Nation Sim League has an opening
Primer on BaseRuns
Cool Baseball Infographics
ESPN's Jerry Crasnick on defensive metrics
I’m also a follower, since Brian Bannister’s on our team, of sabermetric st...
Top Ten Baseball-Reference.com's Sponsorships
Primer on Linear Weights
JC Bradbury on "Hot Stove Myths"

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

BtB on Twitter

Main Feed: @BtBScore

Tommy B: @tommy_bennett
Sky: @BtB_Sky
Dan: @dturkenk
Harry: @harrypav
Jinaz: @jinazreds
Jack: @jh_moore
Erik: @Erik_Manning
Tommy R: @trancel
Justin: @justinbopp

Subscribe to BtB via Email

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

BtB Goes Social


Managers

Nando_small R.J. Anderson

Limes_125_small Sky Kalkman

E52205a2_small Tommy Bennett

Editors

Face_small Harry Pavlidis

Rawlings_baseball_bigger_small Dan Turkenkopf

770insig_small Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal)

Aviles_small Justin Bopp

Authors

Banny_small erik

Raysring1_small Tommy Rancel

Jinaz-reds-avatar_small JinAZ

Jmlogo_small Jack Moore

1753738656_110919ebe9_o_small vivaelpujols

1_small Graham

Baseball_small Mike Rogers

Redcap_small SFiercex4

Small Patrick Clark

Walter_album_small Walter Fulbright