Runs Above Average with Zone Rating Part One: The Infielders

by Marc Normandin on Jul 26, 2006 3:06 PM EDT Comment 6 comments

Since I have not posted these yet all season, I figured I'd throw the rankings for all defensive players with at least 300 innings in the field, starting with the infield positions today. The stat used to measure defensive value is the same one I use in pNRAA. League average Zone Rating for each position is calculated, as well as chances and plays above average for each player. Using Chris Dial's run values for Zone Rating, we get a Runs Above Average, or ZRate as someone smarter and better looking than me called it a few times in the past. As I said, that is the defensive number that replaced Prospectus' Rate2 for the defensive portion of the pNRAA calculations.

First Base Defensive Rankings

Rank	NAME	INN	ZR	Chances	Plays Above Average	Runs Above Average
1	Albert Pujols	727.2	.870	186	106.79	11.92
2	Adam LaRoche	697.0	.861	180	101.73	10.92
3	Lyle Overbay	736.2	.854	189	105.49	9.98
4	Lance Berkman	504.1	.883	129	75.74	9.63
5	Chris Shelton	839.0	.944	182	117.96	9.57
6	Dan Johnson	612.2	.838	158	85.66	6.65
7	Todd Helton	737.2	.849	183	101.23	6.47
8	Ben Broussard	561.2	.817	151	78.7	6.23
9	Lance Niekro	398.1	.926	91	57.34	5.63
10	Justin Morneau	823.2	.845	201	110.38	5.11
11	Mark Sweeney	315.0	.863	81	45.94	4.91
12	Kendry Morales	422.2	.910	96	58.96	4.49
13	Conor Jackson	626.1	.844	152	83.32	3.38
14	Mike Lamb	380.2	.827	96	50.99	2.37
15	Travis Lee	615.1	.858	143	80.39	2.15
16	Richie Sexson	858.1	.813	211	109.12	0.59
17	Kevin Youkilis	724.0	.831	172	92.05	0.48
18	Doug Mientkiewicz	725.2	.889	155	91.94	0.27
19	Mark Teixeira	869.2	.826	207	109.74	-0.04
20	Nomar Garciaparra	690.2	.884	148	87.05	-0.11
21	Ryan Howard	827.0	.821	198	103.98	-0.38
22	Kevin Millar	473.1	.779	122	58.95	-0.65
23	Jeff Conine	375.2	.817	88	45.86	-1.22
24	Andy Phillips	449.0	.895	91	54.52	-1.75
25	Scott Hatteberg	677.0	.907	134	81.9	-2.89
26	Adrian Gonzalez	816.2	.861	175	98.9	-3.34
27	Craig Wilson	360.1	.830	76	40.6	-3.9
28	Sean Casey	443.1	.833	94	50.49	-4.37
29	Carlos Delgado	804.1	.860	170	95.91	-4.52
30	Nick Johnson	816.1	.839	179	97.23	-4.67
31	Paul Konerko	772.2	.773	192	91.61	-4.73
32	Todd Walker	312.2	.780	69	33.41	-4.81
33	Prince Fielder	838.1	.805	194	98.78	-5.65
34	Mike Jacobs	630.1	.821	129	67.75	-9.45
35	Jason Giambi	360.0	.689	78	30.67	-11.81

As if everyone else in the league didn't feel inferior enough already, Albert Pujols is ranked first among first basemen defensively, as well as with the bat. His pNRAA for the season is +86.58 per 150 games; he's already been almost 50 runs above average for his position in only 81 games. I feel like that's wrong, but he has a .364 EqA and is the best defensive first basemen this season, so it adds up.

Second Base Defensive Rankings

Rank	NAME	INN	ZR	Chances	Plays Above Average	Runs Above Average
1	Placido Polanco	733.0	.885	287	19.02	14.34
2	Aaron Hill	544.1	.884	213	13.90	10.48
3	Mark Grudzielanek	710.2	.867	288	13.90	10.48
4	Brian Roberts	673.2	.861	253	10.69	8.06
5	Craig Biggio	661.2	.854	263	9.27	6.99
6	Jose Valentin	384.1	.857	188	7.19	5.42
7	Jamey Carroll	548.0	.839	277	5.61	4.23
8	Mark Ellis	553.1	.844	213	5.38	4.06
9	Robinson Cano	602.0	.839	244	4.94	3.73
10	Brandon Phillips	748.1	.830	251	2.83	2.13
11	Aaron Miles	600.0	.827	265	2.19	1.65
12	Dan Uggla	755.2	.826	298	2.16	1.63
13	Tadahito Iguchi	732.1	.823	276	1.18	0.89
14	Todd Walker	299.1	.823	104	0.44	0.33
15	Ian Kinsler	498.2	.820	217	0.27	0.21
16	Jose Lopez	818.0	.815	308	-1.15	-0.87
17	Chase Utley	818.1	.813	330	-1.89	-1.43
18	Ray Durham	654.1	.809	256	-2.49	-1.88
19	Josh Barfield	811.1	.810	302	-2.64	-1.99
20	Adam Kennedy	759.2	.798	279	-5.79	-4.36
21	Orlando Hudson	828.0	.802	373	-6.24	-4.71
22	Mark Loretta	808.0	.799	323	-6.38	-4.81
23	Jose Vidro	717.2	.791	250	-6.94	-5.23
24	Luis Castillo	764.1	.795	301	-7.15	-5.39
25	Jeff Kent	549.0	.790	257	-7.39	-5.57
26	Marcus Giles	735.2	.789	290	-8.63	-6.50
27	Ronnie Belliard	748.1	.783	318	-11.37	-8.57
28	Rickie Weeks	794.0	.776	336	-14.36	-10.83
29	Jorge Cantu	481.0	.717	179	-18.21	-13.73
30	Jose Castillo	812.2	.757	309	-19.08	-14.38

Orlando Hudson doesn't look like he's been the defensive specialist that the Diamondbacks were looking for, as he's about -5 for the season. On the other hand, his replacement Aaron Hill is the second best in the league behind the sure-handed Polanco, and in 200 less innings than Detroit's second basemen.

Third Base Defensive Rankings

Rank	NAME	INN	ZR	Chances	Plays Above Average	Runs Above Average
1	Mike Lowell	799.0	.854	235	18.62	14.90
2	Brandon Inge	856.0	.827	284	14.83	11.87
3	Corey Koskie	603.1	.843	179	12.21	9.77
4	Pedro Feliz	888.1	.810	262	9.23	7.38
5	Scott Rolen	761.1	.808	267	8.87	7.10
6	Vinny Castilla	575.0	.819	137	6.06	4.85
7	Freddy Sanchez	529.2	.804	193	5.64	4.51
8	Morgan Ensberg	696.2	.802	204	5.55	4.44
9	Chad Tracy	823.0	.798	199	4.62	3.70
10	Aramis Ramirez	820.2	.798	195	4.53	3.62
11	Adrian Beltre	874.0	.791	260	4.22	3.38
12	Ryan Zimmerman	857.1	.793	204	3.72	2.98
13	Joe Crede	790.0	.778	274	0.88	0.71
14	David Bell	754.1	.775	235	0.05	0.04
15	Hank Blalock	813.2	.774	236	-0.18	-0.15
16	Chipper Jones	656.1	.769	170	-0.98	-0.78
17	Garrett Atkins	839.1	.766	210	-1.84	-1.47
18	Aubrey Huff	572.2	.760	170	-2.51	-2.01
19	Edwin Encarnacion	477.1	.746	135	-3.88	-3.11
20	Troy Glaus	705.2	.750	209	-5.18	-4.14
21	Eric Chavez	703.0	.751	218	-5.18	-4.15
22	Aaron Boone	760.0	.751	226	-5.37	-4.30
23	David Wright	875.1	.741	239	-8.07	-6.46
24	Melvin Mora	851.1	.741	255	-8.61	-6.89
25	Mark Teahen	561.2	.729	204	-9.34	-7.47
26	Tony Batista	434.0	.699	139	-10.53	-8.43
27	Miguel Cabrera	818.2	.730	236	-10.57	-8.45
28	Alex Rodriguez	827.2	.729	243	-11.12	-8.90

Brandon Inge seems to be having trouble keeping his batting average up, and his plate patience was never that spectacular to begin with, but he's hitting for power and playing stellar D at the corner for the Tigers, the top defensive club in the league. His pNRAA of +3.48 has him above the league average for his position, even with his offensive struggles. Freddy Sanchez continues to shine; +23.34 pNRAA on the season for the Pirates.

Shortstop Defensive Rankings

Rank	NAME	INN	ZR	Chances	Plays Above Average	Runs Above Average
1	Adam Everett	776.0	.912	328	25.37	19.10
2	Juan Uribe	716.0	.888	265	14.14	10.64
3	Alex Gonzalez	699.1	.875	232	9.36	7.05
4	David Eckstein	824.0	.863	321	9.10	6.85
5	Jose Reyes	832.1	.862	304	8.31	6.26
6	Clint Barmes	749.0	.859	305	7.43	5.59
7	Omar Vizquel	813.2	.858	308	7.19	5.41
8	Bobby Crosby	762.0	.858	284	6.63	4.99
9	Khalil Greene	870.1	.853	311	5.71	4.30
10	Craig Counsell	631.2	.852	305	5.29	3.98
11	Jason Bartlett	320.0	.878	113	4.90	3.69
12	Carlos Guillen	775.0	.842	322	2.36	1.78
13	Michael Young	863.0	.840	381	2.04	1.53
14	Jhonny Peralta	819.2	.840	361	1.93	1.45
15	Orlando Cabrera	829.2	.839	279	1.21	0.91
16	Julio Lugo	586.1	.836	236	0.32	0.24
17	Yuniesky Betancourt	864.1	.835	326	0.11	0.08
18	Ronny Cedeno	782.0	.833	299	-0.49	-0.37
19	Royce Clayton	793.2	.830	318	-1.48	-1.11
20	Jimmy Rollins	844.0	.829	347	-1.96	-1.48
21	Bill Hall	585.1	.821	203	-2.77	-2.09
22	Miguel Tejada	805.2	.825	324	-3.13	-2.36
23	Rafael Furcal	851.0	.825	356	-3.44	-2.59
24	Jack Wilson	750.0	.811	344	-8.14	-6.13
25	Edgar Renteria	768.0	.810	332	-8.19	-6.16
26	Juan Castro	471.2	.786	210	-10.22	-7.69
27	Hanley Ramirez	785.0	.801	318	-10.70	-8.06
28	Angel Berroa	756.0	.800	309	-10.71	-8.06
29	Derek Jeter	787.1	.798	296	-10.85	-8.17
30	Felipe Lopez	824.0	.786	319	-15.52	-11.69

Adam Everett is the most valuable defensive player in the league. His run value is roughly 4-5 runs higher than the next highest players at any position. Everett's pNRAA is only -2.21 due to his anemic bat -- a .217 EqA is well below the positional average and replacement levels at shortstop. If he was league average at his position with the stick (.254 EqA) his pNRAA would be +19.10, a massive difference. I guess not everyone can be Albert Pujols. Jason Bartlett is +4 in just over 300 innings in the field; I could get off on a rant about how they should have handed him the job to keep back in March, but it's a little late for that.

I'll have the outfield rankings at some point later in the week; feel free to discuss these in the comments section and let me know how you think and feel.

0 recs | Comment 6 comments

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Comments

defensive specialists

Travis Lee: 2 RAA.
Doug M---z: 0 RAA.
Orlando Hudson: -5 RAA.

It's cliche, but we (or they, or somebody) still have a lot to learn about defense!

Daily Brewers Blog: BrewCrewBall.com

by jeffbcb on Jul 26, 2006 10:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I noticed the same thing

the hudson number surprises me...

Are catchers handled differently?

www.royalsreview.com

by royalsreview on Jul 27, 2006 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Catchers

I haven't followed this for catchers, due to unreliability for the most part.

The Hudson number surprised me as well, so I took a look at his 2005 numbers to see if this is just a case of Zone Rating hate or not. Hudson was 8th overall in 2005, with a ZR of .839 and a RAA of 6.57. In 2004, he had a ZR of .830, so this year he might really just be struggling. Is Arizona tougher defensive in the infield?

"I don't set the rosters, I just make fun of the guy who does" - Rob Neyer

by Marc Normandin on Jul 27, 2006 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

one more thing

I think the system has trouble with corner spots on occasion; not for every player, but with some of the guys. Chris Dial mentioned that, and I know some of the even more advanced systems have trouble in certain corner spots. Catcher is still the biggest problem spot overall, as I haven't even bothered doing this at that position, and BP's Rate for catchers just screws with my head.

"I don't set the rosters, I just make fun of the guy who does" - Rob Neyer

by Marc Normandin on Jul 27, 2006 12:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

John Dewan

This is pretty much agreeing with the research of John Dewan especially with the cases of Everett and Jeter.

by BaseballByTheBay on Jul 27, 2006 3:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

First Base Rankings

Some of them don't make sense. Take Chris Shelton, for example. He ranks 5th in RAA with 9.57. Yet he has the best ZR of any first baseman, far better than any of the 4 ranked above him. And he also has more innings than any of those 4. Berkman, ranked 4th, has only 60% as many innings as Shelton. How can be ranked ahead of him?

Another example: Only 4 first baseman have ZR's over .9, so obviously that is far above average. Yet one of them, Scott Hatteberg, ranks 25th with a -2.89 RAA.

by fjm235 on Aug 2, 2006 11:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs