ground into double play?
I'm writing a simulator in C, based around the core idea of salb918's simulator in MATLAB, for the purpose of evaluating lineups. Currently I'm using PAs, BB, hits, 2B, 3B, HR, SO as the stats. It's somewhat computationally intensive; to run all 9! combinations takes about 2.5 days on my Powerbook G4 if you want to get within +/- 1 run per season with 95% confidence. (translates to +/- 0.006 runs per game with 95% confidence)
The simulator generates a random number, and if that number falls within the range assigned to walks (as determined by BB/PA) then a walk is assigned. Otherwise, it falls to the next case, i.e., within ((H-2B-3B-HR)/PA + BB/PA) then a single is assigned. So on and so forth.
My simulator clearly underestimates offense - I forgot to include hit by pitch (I'm making the correction for the next run, but right now I'm in the middle of a run) and it doesn't include sac fly, sac hits, steals, or speed (i.e. no one scores on a single unless they're standing on third).
What I am wondering, though, is how to take into account GIDP (GDP). That stat is reported at baseball-reference.com, but clearly GIDP is dependent on the baserunner situation - you have to have a runner on first. For example, in 2005, Ausmus hit into a double play 17 times. Originally I was thinking of just assigning this number like any other stat, but that would probably actually underestimate the percentage chance of hitting into a double play, as the actual stat represents the number of times that it actually happened, which requires a runner on first and less than 2 outs. In my simulator, there won't always be a runner on first. I suppose since I'm not taking into account speed, steals, sac fly or sac hit, it's probably ok - it'll help correct upward - but is there a stat out there for GIDP that only includes at bats where a double play can actually take place?
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Hmm...
Also, Prospectus tracks DP Opps, I think...
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=69985
by Dan Scotto on Mar 17, 2006 5:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
baseball prospectus
by false cognate on Mar 18, 2006 5:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They track them...
The Hardball Times, right now, has great data on batted ball types... LD%, G/F ratio for batters. I think if you rework the data, you can get percentages for all three types of batted balls...
by Dan Scotto on Mar 20, 2006 12:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't include it
If you did want to do it, I would include a GB/FB split for a player and "award" him a DP if he hits a GB with runners on with the same frequency that a GB turns into a GIDP for the league as a whole.
I'm glad that somebody is trying to make my broke-ass code go a little faster...let me know if it works well - and I sure would appreciate a copy of your efforts if things work out.
no one scores on a single unless they're standing on third
I would allow players to take an additional base on two-out hits (eg, score from first with a two-out double).
by salb918 on Mar 17, 2006 7:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'll try that
by false cognate on Mar 18, 2006 6:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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