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Around SBN: Terry Collins, David Wright, And The Mets/Brewers Kerfuffle

Best Teams by NRAA

Imagine its the late 1800's and pitchers don't matter. They are just there to serve up the ball to the hitters, and the defense takes care of any batted balls. Writing that is just an excuse for me to only give you Net Runs Above Average to figure out which American League team has the best combination of offense and defense at their disposal. I'll take the division leaders and all of the second place teams as well, and tomorrow I'll do this for the National League as well.

First off, Boston and the Yankees are well ahead in the Net Runs Above Average lead, which makes me think that the figures for their pitching staffs are vomit-inducing bad. When I finished Chicago's part of the spreadsheet, all that would go through my head is "One of these things is not like the others!"

We all know Anaheim's problem is an overreliance on Vlad Guerrero to put up MVP numbers, or else they will not win. Facing the stiff competition of Oakland, who has a pitching staff essentially as good as Anaheim's will make it difficult for Anaheim to hold on in the long run. The Angels pitching can keep them in any game, but with less leeway offensively they are more apt to lose some of those games.

New York and Boston present an interesting struggle. They are close enough offensively/defensively that its a wash when you consider Boston's bench strength as compared to New York's. One example: Doug Mirabelli or John Flaherty? Another: John Olerud/Roberto Petagine or Russ Johnson? Boston has the pitching edge I think, especially if Schilling can successfully move back into the rotation and Papelbon and Foulke enter the bullpen. Hot rumor: The Yankees are calling the girl who loved Tom Gordon to see if she knows how to throw his curveball. Maybe they are getting a little out of hand with the free talent acquisitions.

The Indians/White Sox present an interesting study. If they had the same record I'd be inclined to say Cleveland would be the division winner, but thanks to a large division lead that is most liely insurmountable, the Pale Hose will rise victorious. A portion of that record is due to the ChiSox beating the hell out of Cleveland in the early goings, back when Cleveland was in the bottom of the league in EqA. Oh what could have been (you know, like my prediction about Cleveland taking the division being correct because I knew Minnesota wasn't strong enough to take it from them. Damn White Sox stepping in the way.) I give the White Sox credit as a very good team, but they are not the best in the league, as we can see from this chart above. I'd say Oakland and then Boston, then Cleveland, followed by the White Sox, Yankees and Angels. The Yankees are a better team now after sitting blackholes like Tony Womack (who makes Renteria look useful). The Red Sox have the distinction of having only one player in negative territory for NRAA, but that one is a doozy. .285/.363/.457 as a team for Boston; take Renteria out and the slugging goes up 9 more points to .466. A scary team, and when the pitching comes back possibly the best team in the American League. Oakland might have something to say about that title in the end. I'll work on the NL later today and post it tomorrow morning before work. I cannot wait for college to start again so that I do not have to go to work so much in the morning.

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*sob*
The thought of how much Epstien is paying Renteria to post that line makes me cry.  And for four years!

by NBarnes on Aug 14, 2005 6:09 PM EDT reply actions  

From Concord, CA
Marc, can you post aggregrate NRAA/162 #'s for all teams?  Even better would be if you could prorate it for playing time.  I'd like to see if 1) the "average" NRAA is close to zero and 2) how the spread compares to actual runs scored.

by salb918 on Aug 14, 2005 8:30 PM EDT reply actions  

yeah
I'll do it on a day off, most likely next Sunday. 40 hours again this week, woo!
"I don't set the rosters, I just make fun of the guy who does" - Rob Neyer

by Marc Normandin on Aug 14, 2005 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

A's
Small sample size in Crosby & Johnson - both are sliding recently. take those two peaks away and the A's have a flat offense.

How does the NRAA take base-stealing into account? I was surprised by Figgins' awful showing.

by HalosHeaven on Aug 15, 2005 6:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Remarks
Crosby and Johnson have acceptable sample sizes, I just don't think they will maintain that pace.  Francouer has a small sample, but Johnson and Crosby have played everyday for the last 10 weeks.  I agree that both are slipping recently, although if you watch Crosby, his rate numbers should improve over last year's.  His approach at the plate is getting better and better, and he's beginning to lay off that outside slider.

As for Figgins, you have to remember his low slugging % (402) and just above average OBP (341).  He's stolen 40 bases, but I think MLVr penalizes for CS.  Even though he's got a SB rate, his 11 CS bring his numbers down somewhat.

by salb918 on Aug 15, 2005 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Figgins
40/51 is above the break-even point, but not by much...

by Dan Scotto @ Beyond the Box Score on Aug 16, 2005 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

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