"Fishing for a First Basemen"

by Marc Normandin on Jun 8, 2005 9:16 AM EDT

Peter Gammons tells us that the Red Sox are searching for a first basemen. He only gives one of the targets names so far though, in Conor Jackson. There was previously a line there saying that the Red Sox drafted David Murphy over Jackson back in 2003, but it has since been removed. I'd talk about Conor Jackson's impact on the Red Sox, but the D'backs do not plan on moving him for anything, so let's move on.

What options might the Red Sox have? There seems to be a lot of love for The Ghost of John Olerud in Boston right now, as Red Sox fans are quickly forgetting the early hot streak he put up before ineffectiveness set in for NY last year. Personally, I think the Red Sox should try to acquire Lyle Overbay if he becomes available.

Lyle Overbay 2004
.301/.385/.478
AB: 579
HR: 16
2B: 53
BB: 81
SecAvg: .318
Iso: .177
VORP: 53.5
WARP: 6.9
EqA: .291
MLVr: .222

Massive doubles totals in 2004, and plate patience to boot, finishing with 81 walks. How did he respond in 2005, his second full season (well, thats the plan anyways):

Lyle Overbay 2005
.274/.411/.467
AB: 167
HR: 7
2B: 11
BB: 38
SecAvg: .419
Iso: .193
VORP:17.6
WARP: 2.7
EqA: .305
MLVr: .247

Kevin Millar has not put up this type of production before. His VORP, WARP, EqA, and MLVr from his three years with the Red Sox:

Millar 2003
VORP: 28.6
WARP: 4.9
EqA: .281
MLVr: 0.82

Millar 2004
VORP: 37.6
WARP: 4.2
EqA: .291
MLVr: .137

Millar 2005
VORP: 3.2
WARP: 1.3
EqA: .261
MLVr: -0.045

For those of you unfamiliar with MLVr, it is Marginal Lineup Value Rate. When plugged into a formula developed by Keith Woolner at Baseball Prospectus, it can tell you how many runs a lineup of average players and Player X would score. You first find out what a lineup of "Joe Average", as BP puts it, would score, than add Player X to the team and see the run scoring difference. To get a feel for the difference between Overbay's .247 MLVr score and Millar's -0.045 score, let's do the equation out. I'll use the American League's statistics, since the team in question is located there. The formula for this can be found here if your interested:

League Average AL Team 05': 772 RS
Average Team + Millar 05': 766 RS (-6)
Average Team + Overbay 05': 803 (+31)

The difference between these two is 37 runs offensively. How about defensively?

Millar 05'
Rate: 105 (5 runs above average per 100 games)
FRAR: 7
FRAA: 1

Overbay 05'
Rate: 111 (11 runs above average per 100 games)
FRAR: 9
FRAA: 5

Even though Millar is steadily improving at first base, he is no match for Overbay offensively or defensively.

Something else one should remember; the Red Sox are nothing even remotely resembling a league average lineup. The MLVr formula works on the theory that more PA with a better chances of success (off slugging or on-base) leads to more runs, which is why a player like Overbay who creates more opportunities not only for himself but for his teammates to come to bat and score more often rates so much better than Millar. With the Red Sox lineup allowing Overbay to get up more often, and he doing the same, then the effect may be even greater. The Brewers are at an odd impasse; .500 ball, not sure whether to buy or sell. They most likely will not see the playoffs this year, so I think they should attempt to sell off Overbay to the Red Sox at the deadline or a tad sooner when they feel Prince Fielder is ready.

Update [2005-6-8 11:57:10 by Marc Normandin]: When I said they will most likely not make the playoffs this year, I meant simply because the NL East is such a tight race, and the Dodgers should rise somewhat in the West again. The Brewers do have a shot at the playoffs, but I think I would rather wait for a sure thing in 2006 than risk 2005 and end up like the 04' Mets. Sorry if I offended anyone with my original statement.

Prince Fielder Nashville (AAA)
.257/.369/.486
AB: 214
HR: 12
2B: 13
SB: 3/6
BB: 35
KO: 52
SecAvg: .393
Iso: .229

Nashville is in the Pacific Coast League, which is hitter friendly, but Prince seems to be holding his own anyways. A .393 SecAvg is pretty good anywhere, and if it translated to a .300 SevAvg in the majors immediately I do not think we'd hear complaints.

What are everyone's thoughts on this? Who should the Brewers ask for? Should they attempt to dump any contracts or players on the Red Sox in exchange for Overbay? Is Prince Fielder ready for the majors yet?

[NOTE] Visit Astronomics, an Astros blog of a loyal reader at this site. I like it myself and plan on reading it some more, so do the same if your interested.

Tweet Comment 5 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Need 3B or RF

As a Brewer fan I can comment on what I feel we "need" - but I am not versed enough on the Red Sox to know if they have what fits the bill. First, I will make a couple of general comments about how Doug Melvin seems to acquire players.

1. We would need to see a contribution in 2006 and 2007. I don't think he would trade for a prospect that was A or AA - unless they had a very high ceiling.
2. Unlike some teams he isn't a big one to "dump" salary - at least not that I have noticed. Even with the Richie Sexson trade he got 6 players and 3 of them had pretty good upside.

The Brewers are weakest at 3B and RF. A trade that included Overbay and Jenkins would allow the Brewers the ability to take on more salary. Also, you mentioned the availability of Prince Fielder...I might leave him in AAA until 2006 and allow Wes Helms and Russell Branyon the time at 1B. This might increase there trade value for the 2005 stretch run and give Prince more time to get ready.

Also, as just about very team they could use 1 more starter.

by romagna72 on Jun 8, 2005 11:53 AM EDT reply actions

RE: Need

You make some good points, and thanks for filling me in.

I thought maybe he'd tag Junior Spivey onto a deal in order to allow Weeks to play sooner, but if he's not into salary dumps than I'm not sure how he'd do that.

So you don't mind Jenkins getting traded away to create more payroll space?

"I don't set the rosters, I just make fun of the guy who does" - Rob Neyer

by Marc Normandin on Jun 8, 2005 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Follow-Up

Really Jenkins is the only Brewer that I feel is being overpaid. While Spivey isn't adding much value right now - he also is pretty cheap.

I really hope that Jenkins can turn it on and end up with 30 HR's and 100 RBI's- but the reality is he is probably in a career decline. The knock on him through 2003 was that he could never stay healthy for 162- now that he has avoided injury he has just not delivered on his $7M contract. For a Red Sox fan or a Yankee fan $7M may not be that big of a deal...so that was why I was thinking perhaps packaging Overbay and Jenkins in a deal for a AAA 3B prospect or perhaps a AAA pitching prospect would be a win/win for both clubs.

For the Brewers if we got a player that could make an impact in 2006 and 2007 it would help us on 2 fronts. First, it would shore up a weakness at 3B or at the bottom of the rotation. Second, it would offer salary relief for a free agent in the off season. Doug Melvin has been saying for the last several years that they have a plan and we are starting to see it pay off. I really believe (and perhaps I am just "drinking the kool-aid") that the Brewers can contend for wild-card in 2006 and a pennant in 2007. With young studs like Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder on the cusp - a new owner that is willing to spend a bit more than the Seligs and a smart GM in Melvin it is a good time to be a Brewer fan. So with that in mind I think the Brewers could be buyers this off-season...and with Jenkins salary off the books Melvin could make it interesting.

With all that being said...I am the first to admit that I know the Brewers not the Red Sox- so I throw it back to you...would the Sox be interested in Overbay and Jenkins...and if so what might they part with it?

by romagna72 on Jun 8, 2005 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Sox Interest

The Red Sox would definitely have interest in acquiring Lyle Overbay; if Jenkins was a forced part of the deal I'm sure they would take him as well if the price for Overbay was lowered. that being said, I think the Sox could offer:

C Kelly Shoppach: He was leading the Independent League in homeruns before he was promoted; young catching prospect.

MI: Alejandro Machado seems to be without a place due to the rise of Hanley Ramirez and Dustin Pedroia, as well as Luis Soto in the lower minors. He and Kenny Perez are most likely available.

If Jenkins came to the Red Sox, I think Millar might be shipped out to Milwaukee. I think it would be a sort of "well if we take this, you have to take this" sort of agreement. He would be a placeholder, albeit more expensive than Overbay, but would also bring a prospect with him, so it depends on how much Melvin values a prospect.

There is tons of pitching in the Red Sox farm system, and a surplus in some regards:

David Pauley, Chris Narveson (sometimes), Lenny DiNardo, Jon Lester (I'm not sure he's available though, unless the Sox were guaranteed Overbay for later as well) etc.

"I don't set the rosters, I just make fun of the guy who does" - Rob Neyer

by Marc Normandin on Jun 8, 2005 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't want to think of trading Overbay ...

... but Millar would fit in nicely here.

If Overbay does go, it will most likely be for young pitching. I don't want to think about it yet, and I don't think an Overbay move will be done until next season ... Prince still has a few things to work out in the minors. I also don't think the Red Sox have a lot of arms in the minors, unless it's for some of the people they just drafted (of which I know none of).

Spivey should be the first to be moved because it looks like there is no stopping Rickie Weeks or even Bill Hall (who is taking playing time from everyone in the infield).

What I'd like to see is a definitive reason as to why Overbay is batting 5th and not 3rd ... Jenkins is just atrocious at times. Thanks for a good breakdown.

by nmc on Jun 8, 2005 11:22 PM EDT reply actions