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Around SBN: Terry Collins, David Wright, And The Mets/Brewers Kerfuffle

So 2004 was the Aberration?

Roy Halladay, 2003 American League Cy Young Award winner, appears to have regained his form of two years ago. This is good news for Blue Jay fans (all six of them) because it seems to suggest that last year was the aberration rather than his Cy Young campaign.

I became quite a fan of the 28 year-old ace when he went ten innings in 2003 while throwing only 99 pitches. 9.9 pitches per inning is the kind of pace I like out of a ball game (bring back the soft ball and the high mound!). At any rate, I was disappointed to see him fall back to earth last year, but this season he has been fantastic. Real quickly, here's the stats:

Roy Halladay
  2003 2004 2005
ERA 3.25 4.20 2.45
DERA 3.28 3.81 2.57
K/BB 6.38 2.44 4.33
K/9 6.90 6.43 6.36
K/PA .109 .169 .183
BB/9 1.08 2.64 1.47
HR/9 1.00 2.64 0.68
H/9 8.56 9.47 7.24
BABIP .286 .313 .254

As you can see, "regained his form," doesn't do his performance justice. He's been better. Considerably better. K/PA are way up and although he's walking almost half a batter more per nine innings, he's eliminated more than a hit per nine. Part of the latter rate stat can be attributed to his lower BABIP, which I acknowledge he has relatively little control over. Of the stats that he does have a full say in, his reduced home run rate is perhaps the biggest difference between this season and last and also likely the biggest improvement he's made over his Cy Young-winning year.

I don't have a great deal more to say on the matter; it's too early for talk of another Cy Young. I was merely surprised by the lack of attention Halladay is garnering (maybe it has something to do with that guy in Texas).

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BABIP
Halladay's BABIP is pretty significant.  Last year, Santana led all AL starters in BABIP.  I'm not positive, but I think the number was .252.  .254 is quite low, and is an indicator that Halladay's numbers sill probably slip a little bit.  The K/PA improvement is a very good sign, though, so I think it's likely that we'll see a repeat of 2003.

I'm confused by the DERA number combined with the low BABIP.  I thought there was a correlation between the two, where DERA factored in a league average BABIP, among other adjustments.  Am I totally off base there?

by jhelfgott @ Beyond the Box Score on Jun 7, 2005 2:29 AM EDT reply actions  

RE: DERA
I'm not sure if this helps, but here's the definition for DERA:

Defense-adjusted ERA. Not to be confused with Voros McCracken's Defense-Neutral ERA. Based on the PRAA, DERA is intended to be a defense-independent version of the NRA. As with that statistic, 4.50 is average. Note that if DERA is higher than NRA, you can safely assume he pitched in front of an above-average defense.

"I don't set the rosters, I just make fun of the guy who does" - Rob Neyer

by Marc Normandin on Jun 7, 2005 7:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

You're right.
The BABIP is significant, but so is the increased strikeout rate, the lower HR rate and the low walk rate.

by Richard Wade on Jun 7, 2005 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

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