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Milestones and Minor Leaguers

Reggie Sanders might finally get some respect among those who look at milestone numbers, as he is approaching the 300/300 HR/SB club. He would be only the 5th player to do so, the others being Andre Dawson, Willie Mays, and both Bobby and Barry Bonds. Sanders is a perfect example of the type of player who will end up in the Ray Lankford Wing of the Hall of Fame for continual very-goodness rather than Cooperstown. Atleast Cardinals fans should be able to appreciate something named after an almost lifetime Cardinal though, so Sanders could get a fair shake after all in some regards. Let's check up on his career numbers:

Sanders 1991-2005
.268/.345/.489
AB: 5743
HR: 284
2B: 305
SB: 296
BB: 624
SecAvg: .363
Iso: .221
EqA: .283

Career WARP3: 60.7
Peak WARP: 25.5
JAWS: 43.1
BRAR: 377
BRAA: 178
FRAA: 17

Sanders most likely needs to amass 10-15 more WARP3 in his career in order to make the RLWHF. This is possible, because he is only 37 years old. If he plays until he is 40 years old he might make it. Sanders problem for career value is his lack of playing time in many seasons; he only has one season of over 500 AB in his career. We'll see how he really stacks up when he retires, but for now he looks to be on track.

Steve Finley is also on his way to the same club as Sanders. I believe Finley already has career numbers that would place him in the Ray Lanford Wing of the Hall of Fame.

Finley 1989-2005
.274/.335/.449
AB: 8707
HR: 293
2B: 419
3B: 112
SB: 311/428
BB: 783
SecAvg: .287
Iso: .175
EqA: .275

Career WARP3: 84.8
Peak WARP: 33.6
JAWS: 59.2
BRAR: 471
BRAA: 172
FRAA: -26

I plan on updating the RLWHF before the season ends so that I can make comparisons for all of the DT Card statistics shown in the section directly above for newly retired players to those already enshrined.

Now to fulfill the portion of my article shown in the minor leaguer portion of my title.

Austin Kearns was demoted to the Louisville Bats from the Reds so he could adjust and learn how to hit again. So far the sample size is small, but the results are somewhat encouraging:

.389/.421/.611
AB: 18
HR: 0
2B: 4
SB: 0/0
BB: 0

He has not walked yet in 18 AB, which makes me slightly nervous. It is most likely just because he is hitting the ball everywhere so far; he was on pace for 61 walks in 650 PA at the major league level, so no need to worry. Just the fact that he should be regaining his confidence at the plate (and his trade value) is good. Now as far as that trade value part goes...

Kearns is most likely not going to go anywhere. Sean Casey is still the one I see moving, he just needs buyers. Some GM's will do crazy things at the deadline to get something they think will help them win though, so the Reds might still make out on that deal. Everyone keeps talking about Kearns' trade value, but the Reds front office is scared to death of moving him, and you would be too. What happens if you trade him and he turns into the monster hitter you expected him too? If they give him up, the price will most likely be high enough that they won't be affected by it in the future. The A's could use a Byrnes replacement though, and Beane does give up what he has to to get what he wants, so we'll see if the Reds front office changes its tune.

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You've got to be kidding me
Marc, on AthleticsNation you said that Mr Miley would probably look for Byrnes + decent prospect.

I see no way that the Reds are in a position to make such a demand.  Because of the demotion, teams have every right to treat him like a minor leaguer.  A minor leaguer with a little major league sucess, true. He is 25 years old.

If Mr Miley insists on a Major League player + a good prospect for 25 year old who can't stay healthy, can stay in the majors, and can't play up to abilities previously seen, then Austin Kearns isn't going anywhere.

Count the number of times that a major league player in his prime + a good prospect have been traded for a minor leaguer.  I don't believe it has happened, not even for a blue-chip prospect.  It won't happen for Austin Kearns, and if the Reds want to build his trade value, they'll play him against Major League competition.  If it's Sean Casey they want to trade, they may want to start dropping subliminal messages on their broadcasts, because I don't see anyone biting.

by salb918 on Jun 20, 2005 9:50 AM EDT reply actions  

Errata
"can stay in the majors" should be "can't stay in the majors"

by salb918 on Jun 20, 2005 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Miley
Well, I didn't say it was the right thing to ask for, I was just saying what the price tag was most likely to be. I don't agree with it, except for in the sense that the Reds are trying to protect themselves from losing out.
"I don't set the rosters, I just make fun of the guy who does" - Rob Neyer

by Marc Normandin on Jun 20, 2005 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Casey
I have a hard time believing that the Reds will trade Casey. They haven't shown any indication of understanding his flaws and he's "The Mayor." I don't believe they'll be willing to do something like that which would upset the fans, even if it's by far the best thing for the team.

by Jim Wisinski on Jun 20, 2005 10:18 PM EDT reply actions  

RE: Casey
Baseball Savant, a major Reds fan himself, told me earlier this year that it has gotten to the point where sacrificing Casey might be accepted by Reds fans who are tired of losing if that will help them out.

I'm not sure if thats an opinion shared by all, but I hold his opinion in high regard so I'll believe it.

"I don't set the rosters, I just make fun of the guy who does" - Rob Neyer

by Marc Normandin on Jun 21, 2005 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Subject:
He would know a lot more than me. I'm mainly going on what was the case in the offseason, after the debacle so far I can certainly understand them not giving a damn who goes at this point.

by Jim Wisinski on Jun 21, 2005 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Another candidate for the RLWHF
Jack "The Ripper" Clark.

Save for the stolen bases, his numbers are pretty similar to Reggie's.

by Ryan Van Bibber on Jun 21, 2005 1:50 PM EDT reply actions  

RE: Clark
Jack Clark, RF 316 WS, 59.2 JAWS

He's inducted as RF, where he played more of his games.

"I don't set the rosters, I just make fun of the guy who does" - Rob Neyer

by Marc Normandin on Jun 21, 2005 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

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