Ole Coyote Cometh

by Matthew Kizner @ Beyond the Box Score on Jun 15, 2005 1:24 AM EDT

So I've been promising the end of my Top 10 hitters article for a week, and with the lady asleep, I shall end my Jules like sabbatical (for I've been wandering the earth) and conclude this epic project, with my top 5 in baseball.

In defense (and quiet admiration, for I will never admit I am wrong), I have ""altered"" some of my previous picks for the AL and NL, and totally changed the lists (removed my own bias, and put in some different, more people friendly bias) at the quiet urging (vehement disagreeing and outrage) of the BtB readers. So here it is, in a VERY particular order.

1-Barry Bonds** I'm putting the asterisk, and whoever wants to can complain about it until they're blue in the face. As a chemist, I believe in absolutes, such as science, but as a statistician, I believe in numbers, and until I see proof of what I believe, I'll only be able to believe Barry cheated, so he's still number 1 on this list, and probably top 5 on any list all time.

So to clear this up: steroids, Martians, using black magic to harness souls for bat speed, whatever, when a healthy Barry Bonds has a bat in his hand, he is the absolute best hitter in baseball, and the best I've had the pleasure of seeing in my lifetime (although watching Miggy Cabrera and Miggy Tejada is slowly approaching that level, Miguel Pride!)

The line: .300/.443/.611 703 HRs
.355 EqA
211.1 WARP3
Peak: 69.6 (Read that again, and again, and holy crap).
He's also 6 steals over 500.
500/500 club. Holy. Crap.

2- Albert Pujols. Must be nice to be 25 and to be considered the second greatest at what you do. It's so hard to believe Pujols has been playing for 5 years, and he's already amassed such amazing numbers. Another year or 2, Pujols takes number 1 on this list, and any other, hands down.

Personally, what scares me, and Aaron Gleeman brought this up in a Twins roundtable when I mentioned Morneau had Pujols like potential. Pujols is 25, he hasn't peaked yet shudder, he's still adapting--He's still getting better.

The line: .333/.412/.622 171 HRs (I find the 204 2B even more impressive).
.334 EqA
46.1 WARP3 (coincidentally, this being his fifth year, 46.1 is Pujols current peak, and with a 5.4 WARP3 this year that's sure to go up, we could be looked at a very early career 50+ peak).
As you look at his WARP3, just remember he's 25.

3- Alex Rodriguez. See kids, I removed personal bias twitch and gave twitch A-Rod his props, despite the fact I feel negatively (would gladly give my life to kill George Steinbrenner) about the Yankees.

However, my own scathing hatred aside, there's no denying A-Rod's abilities. He's a phenomenal hitting talent, and has been everywhere he's played. Seriously, 2004 is considered his down year, where he hit 36 HRs 106 RBIs and still batted .286. Let that process. That's his off year. Not to mention, in the steroid era, I feel A-Rod is a player above accusation (at least, realistically, much like a Todd Helton), and as much as I'd like to deny it, there's no hiding how sweet his swing is.

The line: .306/.382/.575 395 HRs Also a 75% success rate on SBs (158/211).
EqA: .321
WARP3: 108.4
His peak of 61.4 is outright disgusting.

4- Manny Ramirez. This might be a homer pick (arguably, it could be Vlad here, but I'm going with Manny because of his pure talent, and his numbers, not to mention the fact he's probably the most feared hitter in the American League [not named A-Rod]. A case could be made David Ortiz belongs in that spot, but Papi shares the Mango Salsa, and Manny has been doing it for a longer time). And if you don't get the Mango Salsa reference, look around for David Ortiz's Comcast commercial. Both Marc and I are fairly certain his hitting prowess (as well as the rest of the team) comes from his Mango Salsa.

But I digress, Manny has been an absolute beast (and a first ballot HoFer) for about a decade. Check the numbers here:

The line: .313/.408/.595
WARP3: 95.2
EqA: .332 (all time adjusted)
403 HRs
Peak: 46.2 Pretty impressive.

5. Todd Helton- Last spot on the list goes to Mr. Coors, the Crown Prince of Purple, the Ruler of the Rockies (alliteration is cool!).

Todd's been bashing the ball since he escaped Tennessee, and, using my advanced powers of prognostication and statistics, I predict, he'll continue to be pretty good at hitting.

The line: .335/.429/.605 256 HRs
WARP3(adjusted): 69.8
EqA: .311
Peak: 54.9

So that's the top 5, curious about the rest of the list?

6. Ichiro Suzuki (I seriously debated putting him on over Todd for about an hour, but in the end, I put him here. Let me explain. When I did this list, I was thinking of the hitters I feel have the ability to change ANY situation. The guy I want up down by 10 runs, in a hopeless situation, because I know at any moment, with one swing of his bat, momentum can change. I wanted the guy who steps in the box and strikes fear in the pitcher. I wanted that batter who forces the catcher to the mound just to talk about how to only get LIGHTLY burned by his bat. In the end, that wasn't Ichiro to me, despite the great numbers.
However, if we are talking pure hitting, the ability to put the bat on the ball, I cannot in the least argue Ichiro belongs at number 2, even number 1 ahead of Bonds on this list. I hope you can understand my perspective, and why I ruled the way I did.)

Miguel Tejada
Bobby Abreu
Vladimir Guerrero (He went from number 1 on my AL list to number 5, I know, but after hearing reasonable discussion, I realize the people I put in front of him are much better).
Miguel Cabrera (Ya, I had Chipper, but if I'm taking one bias pick on this list, I'm sneaking on Miggy, you can't stop me, it's already done!)

So that's it, and off I go into the sunset, or something else impressive sounding. Later this week, the lists return, in Pitcher form!

Entry link it for the poll!

P.S.- Richard, can you work some Friar magic with the Faithful Nation and heal Mark Loretta. My fantasy team misses him dearly.

Poll

Who's the best hitter in baseball?

Manny Ramirez

8 votes

Todd Helton

0 votes

Ichiro Suzuki

0 votes

Miguel Tejada

1 votes

Bobby Abreu

0 votes

Vladimir Guerrero

1 votes

Miguel Cabrera

0 votes

Barry Bonds

5 votes

Albert Pujols

8 votes

Alex Rodriguez

0 votes

23 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 11 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

Supervlad?

As a diehard, pre-2002 Angels fan (yes, we exist), I may be biased, but I think Guerrero should be near the top, if not at the top of your list. My understanding is that this list is not a ranking of the best hitters sabermetrically, but simply a compilation of the best pure hitters, the players who are most enjoyable watch.

Guerrero does not care if a ball is 1 inch off the ground, or 11 feet above it, he always comes out swinging - and he comes out swinging hard. If you saw the game on June 13, versus the Nationals, he was completely jammed on a ball, still took a full swing, and was able to slam it for a hit to left field (smiling at the absurdity of his accomplishmnt as he ran to first base). I don't care if the score is 1-0 or 21-0, if Vlad is up, I drop everything to watch, because it is always an event - you never know what is going to happen next. While Vlad's qualities are not the only ones inherent in an entertaining hitter - it is impossible not to admire the Dimaggio-like, professional approach of Pujols or the attacking style of Ichiro - I believe his qualities nonetheless merit a higher ranking on your list (which I still thoroughly enjoyed).

by sas723 on Jun 15, 2005 3:05 AM EDT reply actions

To be honest

This list was so incredibly hard to formulate, I'm still kicking it back and forth in my head. I feel the first 3 to be untouchable (being Bonds, Pujols, and A-Rod).

A case could be made about Vlad, but what sold me on Manny is how long he's been doing what he's done. And yes, I know exactly what you mean about Vlad's swing. I stand in awe everytime I catch a Vlad hit on sportscenter where I'm at least 99% positive the ball was in the dirt, or at his eyes, and he's just put it over a fence. However, as I look back over the list (and please don't think this comment to be belligerent, I'm merely trying to extend to you the perspective with which I wrote) there's only one spot I can see moving Vlad to.

So as I've said, I feel 1-3 to be untouchable, and I feel really solid with Manny at number 4 (hard to argue a definite hall of fame career and arguably the best bat of the past decade [he's been at it longer than A-Rod, or the title is his].

So, 1-4 are locked in stone. That brings it to number 5. Helton is a personal favorite of mine because I feel so many people dog him for playing in Colorado, which is why I love his EqA and WARP3, because they reflect his amazing talent. If anyone could move, it would be Helton down, and Ichiro up, as I explained in the article. So call 5-6 interchangeable, I made my judgment call, and I stand by it.

The only person I can see Vlad being switched with is Tejada. I like Abreu at 8, it's respectable, indicative of his talent (and leaves room for him to breakout more, which he's doing, which is scary). So I guess, if you want to be really technical, I can reasonably see Vlad at the 7 hole.

So let me explain why he's not there. You sound like a really big Vlad fan, so I'm guessing you love more than just his bat, that you love his intangibles, what he brings to the game. That's why I put Miguel so high up. Say whatever you want about the man, since he got to Baltimore, that team has done nothing but turn around. Yes, I understand the pitching developiing helps, but Miguel comes to the park to play everyday, with the kind of spirit and vigor that they only write about in books, that the giants of old have. Tejada's bat has been incredible, the RBIs are arguably fueling his team, and his leadership (which generates an immense amount of respect) makes him a force to be reckoned with in the box. That's why I went with him. Not because he golfs unhittable balls like Vlad, because he just makes it all look so simple, so pure.

Statwise, since that's what this is about (and what I looked at when I couldn't decide between intangibles).

Since 2001:

Tejada:
WARP3- 41.9
EqA- .302
Actual Avg- .297
RBI- 110.2 [avg per year] (Call it useless all you want, I like the stat, there, I said it).

Guerrero:
WARP3- 36.9
EqA- .323
Actual Avg- .327
RBI- 90.6 [avg per year]

So, while it appears that Vlad has the better hitting numbers(which is what I discovered), I was fascinated to see Tejada's WARP3 an entire 5 points higher than Vlad's. This is why I made my decision the way I did. I explained above that I wanted the guy there when everything and anything is and was on the line, and Tejada is just mroe valuable in that situation. Yes, I know Tejada is a shortstop, and much more valuable by comparison [with respect to WARP3], but with the RBIs up by 20 (I really don't care what anyone says about the stat, when you're talking hitting, you're talking producing runs) on at least some level), and an EqA not that far off (20 points is high, but again, I credit Tejada for the dominance he's exerted at the plate recently), I went with Miguel.

So I guess in conclusions sas, a case could be made to put Tejada at the 8 or 9 hole, and move Vlad up to possibly the 7, but ahead of that, I think it's untouchable, and as good as Vladdy Daddy is, I just don't think he cracks the top 6.

I'd love to hear your opinion again on my opinion, thanks for the great commment!

by Matthew Kizner @ Beyond the Box Score on Jun 15, 2005 4:38 AM EDT reply actions

You just couldn't stay away from the RBIs...

Friar Faithful

by Richard Wade on Jun 15, 2005 5:03 AM EDT reply actions

yet another hitting stat?

"I meant pure hitters when I wrote this article, and I ask you read it with that in mind."

That's what you wrote in your first list (yes I went back and looked that up...yes I think my employer would be upset if she knew I was doing this at work), and in my mind, Vlad is the best pure hitter (although the real purpose of these lists is to create discussion, not change minds, so mazel tov).

There is no doubt that Bonds is the more intelligent hitter, and definitely the more valuable one, but let's say you had one at bat where you needed a meaningful hit, not a walk, or slap single. Wouldn't that be the ultimate test of a pure hitter? Under those circumstances, I would take someone like Tejada, or yes, Vlad, over a Bonds or Ichiro. Likewise, Bonds has a tendency to hit to the right side, whereas someone like Vlad or Tejada sprays the ball to every part of the field, further attributes in my mind of a pure hitter.

So maybe we could get a rough idea of who the best pure hitters are by creating a stat like APS (average plus slugging), which would take into account the percentage of hits a player gets along with the power, in essence, of those hits.

by sas723 on Jun 15, 2005 10:27 AM EDT reply actions

about ichiro

striking fear into pitchers, he did lead the league last year in IBB. so someone was scared of him.

by cephyn on Jun 15, 2005 12:37 PM EDT reply actions

Meh

Who else is in the Mariners lineup last year Ceph? And I wasn't knocking him at all, if this was just pure hitting, if you read, I had him number 1 or 2, so no disrespect on Ichiro here.

Sas, if we take your idea, for example, it's going to absolutely kill hitters like Ichiro who just don't slug.

And for the record, if we're talking the ultimate stress at bat, with men in scoring position and game 7 of like your life on line, I still take Barry Bonds. Ya, he has a shift put on him. Ya, he may be on steroids. There's also a dead even chance that he'd tattoo the ball into the atmosphere. You know who else I take over Vlad in this situation? Albert Pujols, A-Rod, Manny, Todd Helton, and Ichiro. I leave Tejada off just because I haven't personally seen enough of him in the playoffs when it counts, although i'm sure numbers for example might prove me wrong. So again, this goes back to my original concession Vlad coul dprobably be number 7, but I just don't see how you can reasonably put him higher.

And for the record ceph, I'm petrified of ichiro, he looks like he knows kung fu, or at the very least, like he could have been in the matrix. But that's just my opinion, I could be wrong.

by Matthew Kizner @ Beyond the Box Score on Jun 15, 2005 3:57 PM EDT reply actions

rofl

You could say the same thing - "who else was in Team X's lineup" -- its a weak defense.

I'm not saying Ichiro needs to be #1. I don't think he is. I think he's top 10 though, so yeah, I don't disagree. I'm only nitpicking. 8)

I agree that Bonds is most fear inducing. I personally have suggested he lead off for the Giants. It's like starting the game off 1-0 every time. What pitcher wouldn't like that!

I just always found it interesting that 2 guys with the most contrasting styles I could think of led the AL and NL in the same "fear" category - IBB. The IBB for these guys is usually "better a walk than whatever the hell he could do to us with the bat" -- and that's important.

Vlad is an interesting case -- I'd fear him more than ARod or Manny in the clutch - those guys seem to have a hole in their swing, however tiny it may be. Vlad doesn't. He has no holes. He will hit anything, ball, strike, whatever. Ichiro does that too. Vlad just isn't as successful...remember, didn't Ichiro hit a ball that bounced in front of the plate for a double? that's amazing.

Good list though. 8)

by cephyn on Jun 15, 2005 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions

RBIs

Richard, I did it just to spite you. To be honest, when I was writing this around 1am EST last night, I was sitting in my room, conspiring as to how I could most agitate you. Frankly, I still haven't forgiven you for letting Mark Loretta get injured. Expect more of these spitings for your transgression in letting my 2nd basemen go down!

:-)

by Matthew Kizner @ Beyond the Box Score on Jun 15, 2005 3:58 PM EDT reply actions

Um...

I'm not sure how much I like the idea of you sitting in your room late at night thinking of me in any context. :-P Nobody is happy that Lo is hurt. He was the best hitting and fielding second baseman last year. He's missed. If it makes you feel any better, I was at that game and yelled, "Don't slide head first into first!" If he'd listened, he wouldn't be injured. Granted I kinda yelled it as he was doing it, but still...

Friar Faithful

by Richard Wade on Jun 16, 2005 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions

At this point

I'm beginning to think Ichiro can strike out and get a triple on the ball passing through lets say Jorge Posada's glove, dissolving his hand, and rolling around until Ichiro is safely at third.

Really, it's not that far fetched...

by Matthew Kizner @ Beyond the Box Score on Jun 15, 2005 6:01 PM EDT reply actions