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Mark Mulder verse Danny Haren

Time to update this piece, as I have not done so in a few weeks. Mark Mulder and Danny Haren were traded over the offseason to clear payroll and get younger players in Oakland, and to obtain an ace in St. Louis. Let's see how this deal between two giants of trading (Jocketty and Beane) has played out so far:

Danny Haren, age 24
ERA: 4.28
RA: 5.29
DERA: 4.73
K/BB: 2.03
K/PA: .172
K/9: 6.64
BB/9: 3.26
H/9: 8.66
HR/9: .900
BABIP: .300
VORP: 5.0
WARP1: 1.8
PRAA: -2
Salary: $325,000

Mark Mulder, age 27
ERA: 4.30
RA: 4.63
DERA: 4.58
K/BB: 2.00
K/PA: .142
K/9: 5.38
BB/9: 2.69
H/9: 9.57
HR/9: .753
BABIP: .313
VORP: 10.0
WARP1: 1.6
PRAA: -1
Salary: $6,550,000

As you can see Mark Mulder is having a season with more value in it, but his peripherals are not that much better than the younger and inexperienced Danny Haren. We can also see something very important in the last statistic: salary. Mulder is making $6,250,000 more than Haren to do what is essentially the same thing. Their performance thus far is essentially a wash, with Mulder having the slight edge. If Haren can improve ever so slightly he can tilt the scales of this deal to the A's in more ways than just saving money.

The other deal is not working out as well yet, but that is mostly because Dan Meyer was slowed down by injury:

Dan Meyer (AAA)
ERA: 6.62
RA: 7.14
K/BB: 20/18 (1.11)
K/9: 5.10
BB/9: 4.59
H/9: 10.96
HR/9: 2.55
BABIP: .300

Tim Hudson
ERA: 3.36
RA: 3.58
DERA: 3.62
K/BB: 1.41
K/PA: .134
K/9: 5.21
BB/9: 3.69
H/9: 9.33
HR/9: .651
GB/FB: 2.47
BABIP: .307
VORP: 19.6
WARP1: 2.5
PRAA: 8

Hudson has been very good so far, and Meyer will straighten himself out in Triple-A in time. Remember he was considered major league ready before hurting himself early on in the season. Check out his 2004 numbers:

Greenville (AA)
ERA: 2.22
K/BB: 86/12
K/9: 11.91
BB/9: 1.66
H/9: 6.92
HR/9: .14

Richmond (AAA)
ERA: 2.79
K/BB: 60/25
K/9: 8.80
BB/9: 3.67
H/9: 9.10
HR/9: .88

He is in his age 24 season, so he has time to turn it around and revert to pre-2005 levels. The A's could use another pitcher, but that might come via trade, or they may just continue to use Etherton and Saarloos until Meyer shows a readiness for the big leagues. In time, both of these trades (especially considering the other players involved, most notably Daric Barton) will work out for the Athletic's.

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Mulder is STILL Better???
Haren Won his last three
Mulder has Lost his last Three

Haren the better ERA byt .2 runs but Mulder is in the NL.

Haren has faced five opponents that have .550+ winning percentages (Braves, Texas twice, BoSox, Angels, O's); Mulder has faced none.

Haren had two games against sub-.400 teams (the two D-Ray games); Mulder has had seven (Reds twice, Astros twice, Rockies, Royals). Interestingly, Mulder's posted a 4.80 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in those six games vs. a 4.05 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in his other six starts.

Average winning percentage (today) of Haren's opponents: .525

Average winning percentage (today) of Mulder's opponents: .450

by Egleone6 on Jun 13, 2005 11:45 AM EDT reply actions  

For more discussion
http://www.athleticsnation.com/story/2005/6/6/95434/50005

Over at AN, we had a discussion as to where the difference in value (as judged by VORP) comes in.  Although Haren is trending upward and Mulder is trending downward, it is important to note that Haren has given up a number of unearned runs.  As most statheads can tell you, the concept of the "unearned" run is very misleading, as most unearned runs are indeed the fault of the pitcher.

by salb918 on Jun 13, 2005 12:06 PM EDT reply actions  

Unearned Runs
I had RA (Run Average) which is (Runs/IP)*9

Haren's is indeed worse than Mulder's, which is why I continue to give him the upper hand for the short term.

"I don't set the rosters, I just make fun of the guy who does" - Rob Neyer

by Marc Normandin on Jun 13, 2005 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Marc,
The only thing I'd like to say about your analysis is that you have to look at all the pieces of the trade.

The Mulder trade was undoubtedly good for Oakland because you also have Calero and Barton is tearing it up in the low minors.

Hudson trade is still not looking so good.

by secret asian man on Jun 13, 2005 8:25 PM EDT reply actions  

Barton
.274/.409/.395 in A-Stockton.

He's picked it up of late, but you'd like to see a bit more power... I wouldn't say that he's "tearing up" the low minors. I think he will be an excellent hitter, eventually, but he's not quite there yet and needs a couple more years.

by Dan Scotto @ Beyond the Box Score on Jun 13, 2005 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sorry about that
I've mentioned previously that Oakland won these trades due to the amount of talent involved in them. These articles comparing the pitchers are just meant to see the comparison between the starters themselves.
"I don't set the rosters, I just make fun of the guy who does" - Rob Neyer

by Marc Normandin on Jun 14, 2005 8:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed
I did a similar comparison on my site and conclude the same.  Right now Mulder and Haren are virtually the same, so it's easily an A's win as of today.

by DTS on Jun 21, 2005 8:30 PM EDT reply actions  

oh yeah...
And I bleed Cardinal red (I know, so do you).  Even at the time of the trade I wasn't happy with it, but I figured that it would not impact the Cardinals chances in 2005, so I wasn't terribly distraught.  And, I don't guess that it has.

by DTS on Jun 21, 2005 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

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