Beyond the Box Score: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: RSL Soapbox for Real Salt Lake Fans!

Mark Mulder verse Danny Haren

Time to update this piece, as I have not done so in a few weeks. Mark Mulder and Danny Haren were traded over the offseason to clear payroll and get younger players in Oakland, and to obtain an ace in St. Louis. Let's see how this deal between two giants of trading (Jocketty and Beane) has played out so far:

Danny Haren, age 24
ERA: 4.28
RA: 5.29
DERA: 4.73
K/BB: 2.03
K/PA: .172
K/9: 6.64
BB/9: 3.26
H/9: 8.66
HR/9: .900
BABIP: .300
VORP: 5.0
WARP1: 1.8
PRAA: -2
Salary: $325,000

Mark Mulder, age 27
ERA: 4.30
RA: 4.63
DERA: 4.58
K/BB: 2.00
K/PA: .142
K/9: 5.38
BB/9: 2.69
H/9: 9.57
HR/9: .753
BABIP: .313
VORP: 10.0
WARP1: 1.6
PRAA: -1
Salary: $6,550,000

As you can see Mark Mulder is having a season with more value in it, but his peripherals are not that much better than the younger and inexperienced Danny Haren. We can also see something very important in the last statistic: salary. Mulder is making $6,250,000 more than Haren to do what is essentially the same thing. Their performance thus far is essentially a wash, with Mulder having the slight edge. If Haren can improve ever so slightly he can tilt the scales of this deal to the A's in more ways than just saving money.

The other deal is not working out as well yet, but that is mostly because Dan Meyer was slowed down by injury:

Dan Meyer (AAA)
ERA: 6.62
RA: 7.14
K/BB: 20/18 (1.11)
K/9: 5.10
BB/9: 4.59
H/9: 10.96
HR/9: 2.55
BABIP: .300

Tim Hudson
ERA: 3.36
RA: 3.58
DERA: 3.62
K/BB: 1.41
K/PA: .134
K/9: 5.21
BB/9: 3.69
H/9: 9.33
HR/9: .651
GB/FB: 2.47
BABIP: .307
VORP: 19.6
WARP1: 2.5
PRAA: 8

Hudson has been very good so far, and Meyer will straighten himself out in Triple-A in time. Remember he was considered major league ready before hurting himself early on in the season. Check out his 2004 numbers:

Greenville (AA)
ERA: 2.22
K/BB: 86/12
K/9: 11.91
BB/9: 1.66
H/9: 6.92
HR/9: .14

Richmond (AAA)
ERA: 2.79
K/BB: 60/25
K/9: 8.80
BB/9: 3.67
H/9: 9.10
HR/9: .88

He is in his age 24 season, so he has time to turn it around and revert to pre-2005 levels. The A's could use another pitcher, but that might come via trade, or they may just continue to use Etherton and Saarloos until Meyer shows a readiness for the big leagues. In time, both of these trades (especially considering the other players involved, most notably Daric Barton) will work out for the Athletic's.

0 recs  |  Comment 8 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Mulder is STILL Better???
Haren Won his last three
Mulder has Lost his last Three

Haren the better ERA byt .2 runs but Mulder is in the NL.

Haren has faced five opponents that have .550+ winning percentages (Braves, Texas twice, BoSox, Angels, O's); Mulder has faced none.

Haren had two games against sub-.400 teams (the two D-Ray games); Mulder has had seven (Reds twice, Astros twice, Rockies, Royals). Interestingly, Mulder's posted a 4.80 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in those six games vs. a 4.05 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in his other six starts.

Average winning percentage (today) of Haren's opponents: .525

Average winning percentage (today) of Mulder's opponents: .450

by Egleone6 on Jun 13, 2005 11:45 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

For more discussion
http://www.athleticsnation.com/story/2005/6/6/95434/50005

Over at AN, we had a discussion as to where the difference in value (as judged by VORP) comes in.  Although Haren is trending upward and Mulder is trending downward, it is important to note that Haren has given up a number of unearned runs.  As most statheads can tell you, the concept of the "unearned" run is very misleading, as most unearned runs are indeed the fault of the pitcher.

by salb918 on Jun 13, 2005 12:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Unearned Runs
I had RA (Run Average) which is (Runs/IP)*9

Haren's is indeed worse than Mulder's, which is why I continue to give him the upper hand for the short term.

"I don't set the rosters, I just make fun of the guy who does" - Rob Neyer

by Marc Normandin on Jun 13, 2005 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Marc,
The only thing I'd like to say about your analysis is that you have to look at all the pieces of the trade.

The Mulder trade was undoubtedly good for Oakland because you also have Calero and Barton is tearing it up in the low minors.

Hudson trade is still not looking so good.

by secret asian man on Jun 13, 2005 8:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Barton
.274/.409/.395 in A-Stockton.

He's picked it up of late, but you'd like to see a bit more power... I wouldn't say that he's "tearing up" the low minors. I think he will be an excellent hitter, eventually, but he's not quite there yet and needs a couple more years.

by Dan Scotto on Jun 13, 2005 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry about that
I've mentioned previously that Oakland won these trades due to the amount of talent involved in them. These articles comparing the pitchers are just meant to see the comparison between the starters themselves.
"I don't set the rosters, I just make fun of the guy who does" - Rob Neyer

by Marc Normandin on Jun 14, 2005 8:11 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed
I did a similar comparison on my site and conclude the same.  Right now Mulder and Haren are virtually the same, so it's easily an A's win as of today.

by DTS on Jun 21, 2005 8:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

oh yeah...
And I bleed Cardinal red (I know, so do you).  Even at the time of the trade I wasn't happy with it, but I figured that it would not impact the Cardinals chances in 2005, so I wasn't terribly distraught.  And, I don't guess that it has.

by DTS on Jun 21, 2005 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

We use numbers and stuff.
Community Guidelines
Why be a member?
Start posting on Beyond the Box Score »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Leopold_butter_scotch_southpark_small
Using the TVC
Small
Determining Batted Ball Rates using Pitch Type and Location
Small
a new xBABIP calculator
Img587561916661595
Top 15 high school MLB draft prospects
Small
PZR-based Win Values 2001-2006
Small
The "30 parks on a budget" challenge
Sunflower_small
World Series Simulation, Game #6
Small
JT20 Dynasty League
E52205a2_small
New Look
Sth70021_small
Exploring Hit f/x, Albeit Badly

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Primer on BaseRuns
Cool Baseball Infographics
ESPN's Jerry Crasnick on defensive metrics
I’m also a follower, since Brian Bannister’s on our team, of sabermetric st...
Top Ten Baseball-Reference.com's Sponsorships
Primer on Linear Weights
JC Bradbury on "Hot Stove Myths"
Everyone Should Learn to Throw a Cutter
Criminals of WAR
Ten statisticians you should know about

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

BtB on Twitter

Main Feed: @BtBScore

Tommy B: @tommy_bennett
Sky: @BtB_Sky
Dan: @dturkenk
Harry: @harrypav
Jinaz: @jinazreds
Jack: @jh_moore
Erik: @Erik_Manning
Tommy R: @trancel
Justin: @justinbopp

Subscribe to BtB via Email

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

BtB Goes Social


Managers

Nando_small R.J. Anderson

Limes_125_small Sky Kalkman

E52205a2_small Tommy Bennett

Editors

Face_small Harry Pavlidis

Rawlings_baseball_bigger_small Dan Turkenkopf

770insig_small Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal)

Aviles_small Justin Bopp

Authors

Banny_small erik

Raysring1_small Tommy Rancel

Jinaz-reds-avatar_small JinAZ

Jmlogo_small Jack Moore

1753738656_110919ebe9_o_small vivaelpujols

1_small Graham

Baseball_small Mike Rogers

Redcap_small SFiercex4

Small Patrick Clark

Walter_album_small Walter Fulbright