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Greatest Southpaw of All-Time, Part Deux

I made a serious oops last time I did my Greatest Lefty of All-Time argument; I included Translated Career ERA's from the Davenport Translated Cards, but I did not include ERA+. So here are the same top candidates again, with career ERA+ included as well:

Here are some important career numbers so far (ERA is from the Davenport Translated Cards, so ERA is translated for all-time):

Randy Johnson: 129.0 WARP3, 45.3 Peak WARP, 87.15 JAWS, 1308 PRAR, 4195 K, 1308 BB, 3.01 ERA, 144 ERA+

Steve Carlton: 130.7 WARP3, 40.4 Peak WARP, 85.55 JAWS, 1403 PRAR, 4,136 K, 1833 BB, 3.45 ERA, 115 ERA+

Sandy Koufax: 68.8 WARP3, 47.8 Peak WARP, 58.3 JAWS, 785 PRAR, 2396 K, 817 BB, 2.70 ERA, 131 ERA+

Warren Spahn: 161.3 WARP3, 50.4 Peak WARP, 105.85 JAWS, 1651 PRAR, 2583 K, 1434 BB, 3.18 ERA, 118 ERA+

Lefty Grove: 127 WARP3, 49.1 Peak WARP, 88.05 JAWS, 1297 PRAR, 2266 K, 1187 BB, 2.99 ERA, 148 ERA+

Tom Glavine: 122.0 WARP3, 42.1 Peak WARP, 82.05 JAWS, 1221 PRAR, 2262 K, 1292 BB, 3.51 ERA, 121 ERA+

Carl Hubbell: 100.8 WARP3, 54.6 Peak WARP, 77.7 JAWS, 1027 PRAR, 1677 K, 725 BB, 3.37 ERA, 130 ERA+

Hal Newhouse: 102.4 WARP3, 60.6 Peak WARP, 81.5 JAWS, 1005 PRAR, 1796 K, 1249 BB, 3.08 ERA, 130 ERA+

The bolded number is the leader in each category; if we go simply by counting categories, Warren Spahn is the greatest southpaw of all-time. Johnson is the most obviously dominant pitcher on the list, with the most K, but the greatest performances seem to come from Hal Newhouse's brilliant 5-year peak (netting that 60.6 Peak WARP) and Spahn's career length, plus his 11 years in a row hovering around 8-11 WARP3 per season merits massive kudos. Of course, Lefty Grove was the best pitcher on the planet for over a decade, so he is also included. Not to mention his ERA+ of 148 is the greatest all-time for lefties, and second best all-time behind Pedro Martinez's incredibly insane ERA+ of 167.

So basically this is what we are at: If longevity is your thing, Spahn is your man. If you want a slightly shorter stretch of career with more dominance, Lefty Grove is the southpaw for you.

If Johnson is able to be dominant for another 3-4 seasons, we might see him topple Spahn and Grove. Let's take just the two of them next to each other, and throw a few more numbers Johnson's way to see if he can pass them in career value, and therefore as the greatest lefty of all-time.

Johnson has been given 7.5 WARP3 for the next 3 seasons, plus 100 PRAR for the next 3 years, with additional K's and BB's thrown into the mix as well.

Randy Johnson: 151.5 WARP3, 45.3 Peak WARP, 98.4 JAWS, 1608 PRAR, 4870 K, 1503 BB

Warren Spahn: 161.3 WARP3, 50.4 Peak WARP, 105.85 JAWS, 1651 PRAR, 2583 K, 1434 BB

Lefty Grove: 127 WARP3, 49.1 Peak WARP, 88.05 JAWS, 1297 PRAR, 2266 K, 1187 BB, 2.99 ERA, 148 ERA+

With these additions to Johnson, he is close enough in WARP, JAWS, and PRAR that we may able to state a case for him as the greatest left-handed of all time. Surely, given a fourth season of 7.5 (which would be fair, since he could post an 10 or 11 and a 5.5 or so in the next 4 years) as well as another 100 PRAR, we come to this:

Randy Johnson: 159.0 WARP3, 45.3 Peak WARP, 102.15 JAWS, 1708 PRAR, 5095 K, 1499 BB

Warren Spahn: 161.3 WARP3, 50.4 Peak WARP, 105.85 JAWS, 1651 PRAR, 2583 K, 1434 BB

Lefty Grove: 127 WARP3, 49.1 Peak WARP, 88.05 JAWS, 1297 PRAR, 2266 K, 1187 BB, 2.99 ERA, 148 ERA+

That last season of added on numbers may very well be what Johnson needs to surpass Warren Spahn and Lefty Grove as the greatest southpaw in history. His WARP3 and JAWS scores are close enough, especially considering the massive gap in strikeouts and the 57 additional PRAR over Spahn. Will Johnson be able to get the additional 30 WARP and 400 PRAR in the next 4 years? Maybe not (he will be 45 by then after all) but that is what it may take to take the imaginary crown away from one of these pitchers as baseball's premier lefthander. It is not that out of the picture; Johnson has come on strong the older he has gotten, and Spahn retired when he was 44. He was not effective his last 3 seasons, but maybe conditioning, better health, and the fact that Johnson's dominance has not withered may help him string those extra years together.

If not, then we have two answers for the greatest lefty of all-time, depending on your preference: Spahn has more WARP and a better JAWS due to more seasons, while Grove has the greatest ERA+ of all-time among lefthanders. Maybe Johnson will continue to blow away the competition with that fastball/slider combo (and his 144 ERA+, close enough to Grove's to give it to him considering the 2,000+ K gap) and the issue will be settled once and for all.

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Newhouser
Hal Newhouser's peak was during/around WWII. Not entirely fair to compare Koufax and Johnson's stats to that.

by natsfan2005 on May 5, 2005 12:02 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The beauty of his peak score...
Is that it comes from the WARP system, which has been normalized for all time. Each decade has a strength rating, so Randy Johnson is given a little extra due to strength of competition than Hal Newhouser gets for his WWII time. So Newhouser, even with the extra help given to the other pitchers, is still capable of shooting past them peak-wise.

I ran into this problem with 19th century pitchers and Win Shares when I was calculating the Ray Lankford Wing of the Hall of Fame. Win Shares for pitchers such as Tony Mullane (399) did not correlate with his WARP score (somewhere in the 30's...to put that into perspective, Mark Gubicza was in the 60's somewhere I believe). That is how I learned how WARP is calculated over time (thanks to Clay Davenport's help)...so basically, WARP has been normalized for conditions somewhat, which makes Newhouser's peak all the more impressive.

As far as his career as a whole goes, he doesn't compare to Johnson, Grove, or Koufax. I just thought it was very interesting that his peak was better than the rest of them, and better than Sandy "Burned Really Bright But Fast" Koufax.

"I don't set the rosters, I just make fun of the guy who does" - Rob Neyer

by Marc Normandin on May 5, 2005 8:48 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Does anyone else find it interesting?
Does anyone else thinks its great that Pedro Martinez's career ERA+ of 167 is 19 points higher than the next highest all-time?

Sounds like an article for greatest pitcher of all-time to me...

"I don't set the rosters, I just make fun of the guy who does" - Rob Neyer

by Marc Normandin on May 5, 2005 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Normalization
I understand what you are saying about WARP being normalized. Still WWII is such a rare period where many non-major league caliber players were in the league I'm not sure formulas can accurately get a handle on how to compare that period to other periods in baseball. Also, keep in mind that during WWII bats were supposedly made of lesser quality material due to conservation of resources.

I don't know, I just personally can't have a guy who only dominated around WWII in this conversation with all these all-time studs.

by natsfan2005 on May 5, 2005 9:03 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Personally
I don't think Koufax has anything on them either...his HOF credentials may not be as debatable, but I don't think his name belongs in the same conversation as Randy Johnson, Warren Spahn, and Lefty Grove.

I get what your saying about Newhouser though. It surprised me to have him included, especially since (I know wins aren't everything but bear with me) he was the last lefty pitcher on the top 100 for the career wins list.

"I don't set the rosters, I just make fun of the guy who does" - Rob Neyer

by Marc Normandin on May 5, 2005 10:19 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Career ERA+
How is career ERA+ created?  Is it career normalized ERA versus career normalized league ERA or is it each year added together and then averaged?  

by Andy on May 5, 2005 12:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

ERA+
"I believe the answer you are seeking can be found within my companions eyes..."

"WTF Does that mean?!!"

ERA+, as taken straight from Baseball-Reference Glossary:

ERA+ - the ratio of the league's ERA (adjusted to the pitcher's ballpark) to that of the pitcher. > 100 is above average and < 100 is below average.

So basically, Lefty Grove was better than his league at a higher rate than any lefty in history.

Sorry I'm on a Dogma kick right now, if you have never seen it its a good time.

"I don't set the rosters, I just make fun of the guy who does" - Rob Neyer

by Marc Normandin on May 5, 2005 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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