Rangers too generous with Millwood

by Cyril Morong on Dec 30, 2005 7:49 PM EST

The Rangers signed Kevin Millwood to a 4-year, $48 million deal. There is an option for a fifth year at $12 million. What did the Rangers get?

Millwood did lead the AL in ERA last year, but he pitched only 186 innings. In three of the last 5 seasons, he has pitched under 200 innings (121 and 141 IP being the other two). So he can't be counted on to pitch alot of innings. He also just turned 31. Here are his Win Shares for the last 4 seasons: 19, 11, 5, 14. Win Shares is the stat invented by Bill James which measures a pitchers contribution to his team wins independent of the fielders and hitters. So Millwood has not been very consistent.

Over the last 4 years there have been 80 pitchers to pitch a total of 600+ IP. Among them, Millwood is 22nd in strikeout-to-walk ratio and 14th in HRs per IP. He is also tied for 51st in RSAA. That is "runs saved against average" from the Lee Sinins Sabermetric Encyclopedia. It is park adjusted, too. So Millwood is not among the elite pitchers in baseball but he is being paid like one.

We should look at the best starting pitchers in 2005 and their salaries to see where this deal fits. Below are the leaders in each league with their WS total followed by their salaries.

AL
Santana-23-4.75 million
Buehrle-22-6 million
Garland-20-3.4 million
Colon-17-10 million
Contreras-17-8.5 million
Garcia-17-8 million
Lackey-16-440,000

NL
Clemens-24-18 million
Willis-22-378,000
Oswalt-21-5.9 million
Pettitte-21-8.5 million
Carpenter-20-2 million
Martinez-19-11 million
Smoltz-19-9 million
Zambrano-18-3.76 million

Quite alot of pitchers with more Win Shares than Millwood and a lower salary than $12 million.

The White Sox gave John Garland a 3-year deal for $27 million and he is coming off of a better season and has been more durable in recent years than Millwood. Garland has averaged about 200 IP a year over the last 4 years with not season less than 190. He is also 26, 5 years younger than Millwood.

Maybe there have not been that many top starters on the market this year. But $12 million dollars seems too much to pay for the number of Win Shares that Kevin Millwood will probably deliver.

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Comments

Pitching

Bravo...Although WS are convenient imo you nail this.....my analogy has been deserts and cactus...GM's are in the arid land ......scouting..scouting..scouting...

by Buzzards Bay on Dec 30, 2005 9:07 PM EST reply actions

Millwood

Thanks. I don't get many bravos.

by Cyril Morong on Dec 30, 2005 9:14 PM EST reply actions

A couple of things

It may be that these other guys also have deferred payments-that seems pretty standard, so we could adjust their numbers downward as well. So the comparison is still probably legitimate.

Even with the adjustments that you suggest, Millwood is getting paid about what Colon and Martinez are getting. Martinez's last 4 WS totals are 21-20-16-19. Colon has 22-17-10-18 and is less than 2 years older than Millwood.

Yes, some of those guys have not been around long enough to become free agents. I just wanted my list to be complete. But this does suggest that good young pitchers are not that rare. The Ranger's system must be pretty bad if they cannot produce one guy who can get 14 Win Shares pre-free agency.

by Cyril Morong on Dec 30, 2005 9:36 PM EST reply actions

Millwood, Win Shares, and VORP

Does VORP include only defense independent stats? Win Shares attempts to. Where does Millwood rank over the last 3-5 years or so in VORP?

by Cyril Morong on Jan 2, 2006 7:19 PM EST up reply actions

Millwood, Win Shares, and VORP

Millwood pitched in the best pitcher's park in the AL last year. According to the Bill James Handbook, the run rate for Jacobs Field is .87, meaning that it is 13% harder to score there than average. That is based on 2003-05. It is also the second toughest AL park to hit HRs in (a rate of .76).

The Ballpark in Arlington has been the best hitters park. 19% more runs are scored there than average. It is the second best AL HR park. The rate is 1.19.

It is true that Millwood's stats were about even home/road last year. But that is only one year. It can sometimes take a few years to see park effects.

Also, Cleveland was third in the majors in Defense Efficiency Rating (DER). 72.51% of balls in play were turned into outs. For the Rangers last year, it was 69.56%. So the Indians probably had better fielders. For Millwood, who had 577 balls in play last year, the difference in DER for the two teams is about 17 hits. The run value is about 10 or 1 win.

He is coming off his best season in many years and won't have the fielders or park to help him.

by Cyril Morong on Jan 3, 2006 6:47 PM EST up reply actions

DIPS ERA & ERA+

Where can I get data on DIPS ERA & ERA+ for 2005?

I agree that Millwood had a very good year. But when we look at DIPS ERA it is not adjusted for park effects (at least I don't think so). And when we do adjusted ERA (ERA+), we are not using a defense indpendent stat.

Win Shares attempts to correct for differences in both parks and different fielders. It may not do it just right. Also, I am not totally convinced that what happens on balls in play is totally unaffected by pitchers.

I bring up Win Shares simply to show that it is possible that Millwood was not that great, even last year. What have his DIPS ERAs & ERA+s been over the last 4-5 years?

by Cyril Morong on Jan 3, 2006 9:49 PM EST up reply actions

14 Win Shares

There were 37 pitchers with 14 or more WS last year. Those pre-free agency (last year), by my count, are Willis, Buehrle, Santana, Oswalt, Garland, Zambrano, Webb, Peavy, Lackey, Halladay, Lowry, Washburn, Haren, Sosa, Beckett, Myers, Blanton, Chacin, Silva, Towers, Lee, Zito. That's 22, which doesn't quite suggest to me that a team's system would have to be "pretty bad" in order to not have a guy on the list.

In fact: the Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Devil Rays, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Mariners, Mets, Nationals, Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Rockies all failed to place a pitcher on the list. That's seventeen teams, over half the league.

by doctawojo on Dec 30, 2005 11:41 PM EST reply actions

14 Win Shares

You're right. Good job. The Rangers don't necessarily have bad system for this reason.

But if there are 37 guys who can get 14 or more Win Shares, does a guy who got 14 last year need to be paid more than Pedro Martinez, Bartolo Colon and Andy Pettitte, especially when he only had 11 and 5 WS in the previous 2 years?

If there are 22 pre-free agency pitchers with 14+ WS, that means that there is some (maybe about 2/3?) chance that any given team would have one. The Rangers must feel that they won't have anyone even close to 14 emerging next year.

by Cyril Morong on Dec 31, 2005 12:17 AM EST reply actions